Thursday – November 21
SPX – The SPX dropped & slightly broke below the 10sma on day 34, so we see a swing high here. It started to recover, but this could finally be the signs of topping anticipated. We’ll see and …
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I am not personally going ‘short’, but this is where one would go short if they wanted a quick trade, with a stop at new highs ( SQQQ, SOXS, SDS, etc). …
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NASDAQ – The NASDAQ looks like a Doji, could be a reversal, and also broke that 10 sma & recovered. It is Day 32 and that is why this could begin to drop down.
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WTIC – Oil gained the 200 sma 3 days ago, then lost it & the 50 sma very quickly and looked really bearish. Now it reversed strongly higher, so it just remains choppy & frustrating to both longs & shorts. From day 15 to now price has been chopping in the same area, so that is 19 days of sideways ‘nothing’. Maybe now it can get some follow through?
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XOP – The XOP dropped all the way to the lows and flipped higher too. That could be a low risk buy, since a stop can be placed right below the lows, but I am not taking this trade right now. ( Gush would be the trade if I was going long).
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GOLD – Gold dropped but it stayed above the 10 sma on day 6 & bounced back. So far, we have our low in place, we are waiting for it to pick a direction to trend in.
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GDX – GDX is still pushing on the 50 sma and GDXJ did get above it again. The MACD crossed and we are waiting to see if we get
1. A break down as L.Translated for this daily cycle, or
2. A pop higher?
I am cautiously optimistic, because we do have 1 big thing on our side that would make me think that GDX & GDXJ could follow through bullishly, and that is …
I remain cautiously optimistic because of all of the Bullish looking Individual Miners Charts that I have been posting lately. Many are progressing ahead of GDX & GDXJ, and are holding up above their 50sma. We’ve seen a strong push higher in several Miners and the chart patterns are bullish on others. We have looked at charts of CDE, GORO, HL, PAAS, AUY, WPM, SVM, IAG, and so on.
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SVM – This is a bullish Cup with High handle that surged after getting above the 50sma.
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WPM – WPM is above the 50sma and looks like it wants to build the cup here.
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IAG is a long consolidation that is riding along the 200sma and also moved above the 50 sma recently. AUY looks the same as IAG.
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I would love to see GOLD, SILVER, and The Miners move higher Thursday & Friday, because then the weekly candles would even look more bullish, but things may just remain choppy and sideways. Why? We are pushing on the 50 sma as resistance, and we saw a choppy May ICL.
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Yesterdays report showed the May ICL for GDX as a reminder of how choppy & difficult bottoms can be. After that low was in place, I think we’d all agree that the following 3 weeks were very frustrating. Here it is again, I find it to be a helpful reminder:
THIS WAS NOT EASY! 19 days sideways was 4 trading weeks. It reversed & dipped on day 4, then day 9, and even day 15! In fact, Day 14 was scary and actually looked like it would definitely take out the lows, right?
With that choppiness in mind, we may just have to patiently wait this one out, until it is ready to start more of a directional move. Some Miners do seem to be leading the way higher, and that is encouraging.
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Enjoy your Thursday trading!
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~ALEX
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Many MJ Stocks have bounced out of their lows recently, only to roll over and make new lows again & again. Most have not bottomed properly, but they will eventually do so and when they do, they can move Very Quickly Higher. A step to Federally legalize Marijuana in the US was passed on Wednesday, and you’d have to expect that to have a bullish affect on the sector. In fact, several MJ Stocks were up Thursday 15-50% in 1 day! THAT is great, but it also makes them VERY HIGH RISK- not for conservative traders, since they could pop 30% one day, and drop 15% the next. Take a look at 3-6 month charts of ACB, HEXO, CGC, CRON, APHA, etc and you will see what I mean. I will monitor them as we move forward and some of the smaller stocks popped even bigger than those.
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So I am just giving another heads up that when this sector turns, we will want to watch the move higher & eventually buy the dips once it starts acting correctly.
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I am going to show just 1 interesting MJ stock below, because after this big of a sell off, many look to have great potential when it really gets going. You can keep it on a watch list and wait for it to make progress. I took a small position at the $4.50 area when BIG VOLUME started pouring in as a trade for now. That stock is ACRGF.
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ACRGF WEEKY – I posted this midday, just to show the weekly volume was already big for a Wednesday midday and just a tag of that red moving average would be easy to do , and would be a move from $4.09 Wed morning to $6.35 or so ( Good gains quickly). It already ran from $4.09 to $4.86 here…
ACRGF WEEKY – by the close it was at $5.12 & now look at that volume! That is very big weekly volume for a Wednesday. You can see the big potential if this was to get running higher in a recovery. Even a 50% bounce recovery would be a triple. For now I just grabbed a position as a personal trade on a reversal. It may or may not be ready to start a recovery run. See the chart and then we’ll look at the daily…
ACRGF DAILY – Here I am just showing a few ‘False Starts’ or bounces during the sell off, but this one does have pretty good volume coming in. That can be a sign of shorts covering & Buying coming in. Do you see the potential if this starts to turn around & move higher? The next chart will detail that.
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ACRGF DAILY – That was actually a 1 day 23% move Wednesday alone, but it hardly looks like anything here. The MACD has divergence and it looks like a bullish falling wedge break out, so I pointed out that if it recovers over time, it could double, triple, etc. I am in it for a trade, but I may just hold on for a while longer or even add if it continues to progress & starts climbing bullishly.
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Again, it may be tough for some to buy & hold on to a position as these try to bottom, but a recovery over time could be very rewarding. The companies have had Money troubles as they start up, but new chances of Federal US legalization and other factors can help this sector.
A return to Bullishness in this sector would be to start seeing a series of higher lows and higher highs over time. The stock may get above the 10sma, then run to the 50 sma, then drop back to the 10 sma (higher low) and then break out of the 50sma, etc etc . Higher lows, higher highs, stair step higher. That is what I’ll be looking for going forward. Notice the potential over time.
