Wednesday – On The Sidelines
SPX – We were looking for a break & close above the 10 sma to identify a possible dcl, but the markets dropped below the 50 sma on day 40. It is getting late, but we still have to wait.
NAZ – The NASDAQ also closed below the 50 sma.
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My name is ALEX, and I now hate Oil ( so it must be close to a low ?)
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WTIC – Oil is on day 38 and it broke the trend line on day 37. Oil looked good on day 35, 36, & 37 with reversals for 3 days in a row lining up under the 50 sma, but it is breaking down again. I was stopped out of a couple of trades with small losses and I hate Oil now 🙂
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XLE held up while Oil sold off Monday. This is what I said in yesterdays report…
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XLE – With Oil down over 3%, XLE held the 50 sma & 50% retrace. Gush was only down 2 cents, and some Oil stocks went green. I will discuss that at the end of the report, but I would still remain cautious. It might be worth starting a watch list though.
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XLE – Well that watch-list possibility has been delayed based on the drop Tuesday in XLE & XOP. I’m on the sidelines.
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XOP – XOP tagged that 50sma & dropped too.
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GOLD – Gold put in a reversal on day 15, but I would only expect it to maybe do a back test of the 50sma area? We now have lower highs & lower lows, so this bump should not get above day 10.
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GOLD – AS I WRITE THE REPORT Tuesday night Gold looks like it is only back testing the H&S pattern neck line. We’ll see, the 50sma on a daily is actually a bit higher.
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GDX – GDX ran higher on Tuesday and sold off a little by the end of the day. This is day 12 for GDX, so we could get a bounce , but I would only expect it to back test the 50sma. That is a normal move in technical analysis and for those that like to go ‘short’, that would be a good place to start or add to a position ( If it even gets that high).
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GDXJ – This was in yesterdays report, simply pointing out that a bounce is possible on the way down.
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JDST – JDST dropped to the 50 sma and bounced, so it is also possible that the bounce in GDX/GDXJ is weak and JDST only bounces along that support area.
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I am basically heavy in cash at this point, simply because we aren’t getting a directional move or trend yet. Once we get a dcl and a confirmed break & close above the 10sma in the General markets , Oil, or later on in the Precious metals, there will be more to talk about, but right now we have choppy volatility and even though I tried a couple of extra trades, only JDST worked out well. I was stopped out of a few Energy trades.
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When there are set ups that look proper, but they fall apart a day or 2 later, it is best to be patient and wait and see what Wednesday brings our way. Enjoy your Wednesday activities or trading if you are a short term trader, I’m going to try to sit on the sidelines until I get a JDST re-entery or possibly another more predictable trade. 🙂
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