Oct 5th Weekend Report – Slightly Mixed Signals
I have family flying in on Saturday, but I still want to try to get this report out by Saturday evening, so I will try to be short & to the point, but 1 thing that I do want to be clear on is that I am getting mixed signals in the Precious Metals area. We are due for an ICL drop, but there were also some bullish looking charts developing by the end of the week, so I will have to discuss that too.
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SPX WEEKLY – After a quick slam down in the General Markets on the daily charts, Right on time we got our DCL and a strong reversal candle appeared on the weekly chart. It looks very Bullish & I went leveraged long out of the low, but I also want to keep in mind that…
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SPX WEEKLY – We are coming due for a dip into an ICL here, so this MIGHT play out as L.T. & a false break out. We will watch it over time.
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RUT WEEKLY – After rallying strongly out of the Dec ICL, the Russell 2000 has simply been chopping sideways all year out of each dcl.
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WTIC WEEKLY – I can say the same for Oil. We have seen sideways chopping out of each DCL. I had mentioned months ago that we could see something similar to the rally & CHOP out of the ICL in 2016, and now I believe that that is what we are seeing. That lasted for a year & a half & can be very frustrating.
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NATGAS WEEKLY – NATGAS put in an ICL in August and has now pulled back to a buy point. We got a weekly reversal and I mentioned that I bought UGAZ. The upside in this second move higher could be similar or better to that first run up. That means that it is NOT too late to get in, the move is just starting. The chart should say 10 MA ( & that is Bullish)
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GOLD WEEKLY – Gold moved higher & lower and left us with sort of a weekly Doji, but it also gained back a lot of that sell off. That seems Bullish, but we’ll need more time, we are due for a dip into an ICL.
NOTE: The last ICL drop was mild but lasted 9 weeks from the ‘peak’, we are at the 4th week from the ‘peak’, and that MIGHT Happen again. A mild sideways kind of drop where some Miners resist the selling.
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SILVER WEEKLY – Silver is also a weekly doji after a sell off, but it too looks like a reversal from a sell off. In Tech Analysis, a DOJI is indecision and can lead to further selling, so we need more time here too.
GDX INTRADAY – Can GDX run higher in a daily chart and yet still remain in a downtrend? Yes, and I closed my JDST for the weekend due to the weekly GOLD & SILVER Chart and this Miner chart. Something else made me cautious as a short position too, I’ll discuss that soon…
GDX DAILY – This can still move higher & seek out a deeper ICL as drawn. On this chart, those stocks listed here look Bullish right now, so it is a bit concerning. SBGL has been bullish during the whole sell off, so maybe it is also possible that SOME miners remain in accumulation, even as GDX dips to an ICL.
GDX WEEKLY – Another Mixed signal: This could be a weekly bull flag, so it has to make me pause & respect that. It remained under the 10 weekly ma as bearish with a weekly MACD cross down.
GDXJ WEEKLY – GDXJ WEEKLY was capped at the 10 week MA too ( tends to be bearish), but it is a reversal candle. We saw a reversal candle under the 10sma repeatedly as this dropped into the last ICL. They had no follow through. Look at April- it had 2 reversal candles that had no follow through, so I feel that we need to expect that drop into an ICL to continue.
GDXJ WEEKLY – What about a possible Flag or triangle? That looks bullish as a possible Bullish descending wedge, right? …
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GDXJ WEEKLY – Yes, but we saw one fail in April as GDXJ dropped into the ICL too.
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After examining the weekly charts at the end of the weeks trading, I have to conclude by saying that
1. We were in a sell off with Precious Metals
2. Buying into the end of the week gave us reversal candles that looked bullish.
3. Wedges also look to be forming
4. As I pointed out here, We have seen these fail in our last ICL, so I am still feeling that the ICL is still most likely ahead.
5. I also feel that the criteria for an ICL has not been fully met.
6. Looking at the last ICL, it was similar. It was choppy, but a rather Mild drop into that ICL- we may be seeing that here.
— As for my JDST position. We could drop next week & it may have been fine, but looking at the weekly charts, I decided that we could bounce, and I WON’T FIGHT THE MARKETS. We could rise next week as seen on the GDX & GDXJ charts and still peak as L.T. at resistance, eventually dropping down into that deeper ICL, so I want to see how this plays out. When I get mixed signals, it is best to go to the sidelines and see what the direction is next week. I am still long SOXL, UGAZ, and some MJ Stocks for the most part, and we’ll take this day by day to continue to analyze the set ups.
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I want to discuss a few Miners below too. Enjoy the rest of your weekend!
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~ALEX
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AMD – A good Buy candidate, it usually does move higher with the markets
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HEXO WEEKLY – Many of the MJ STOCKS put in great Weekly candles, like HEXO, ACB, CGC, MJ ETF, etc.
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SBGL WEEKLY – SBGL closed at the highs & was actually up 14% this week. That is the INTERMEDIATE CYCLE HIGHS. SO maybe some stocks will remain bullish as the dip down continues. I will show you some of those stronger looking ones…
DRD WEEKLY – DRD never broke below the 10 weekly MA. I owned SBGL & DRD , but sold them mid week. I am wondering if I should have held longer, because this late in the intermediate cycle- these are Bullish stocks.
IAG WEEKLY – I see some Miners looking ugly, some very bullish ( SBGL, DRD, etc) and then some like AUY, IAG, GORO, etc look to be holding up or even improving. To be Hinest- this looks Bullish as a weekly chart.
RGLD DAILY – And RGLD gave me a Buy signal on the daily, so I mentioned that in the live area Friday. HMY is close too, so I had to close my JDST and watch to see what kind of movement we get next week. These look bullish, so…
IS IT JUST HIS MOVE COMING FOR A WEEK? A BOUNCE THAT ROLLS OVER? OR IS IT SOMETHING MORE? We will probably find out next week.
