Tuesday Sept 17th – Our Energy Rockets
Amazingly, we were buying Oil & Energy Stocks over the past 2 weeks, even though Oil did not look as bullish. That paid off nicely on Monday, let’s review the markets and focus on Energy & Miners…
SPX – If you were reading the headlines in the ‘news’, they discussed that the Markets were crashing because of the Saudi Oil attack, but I just see a normal dip of 9 points on the SPX. This is day 29 and it is a pull back from resistance.
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OIL & ENERGY- We were long the Stocks, but Oil was honestly a bit less bullish looking…
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My WTIC SEPT 12 Chart– I loved XOP, XLE, OIH & Energy stocks, but Oil was tricky. I liked the higher lows along the trend line, so I held on to my Oil & Energy Stocks, which looked properly set up
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WTIC – Oil obviously Burst higher after the attack on the Saudi Refinery. You can see a break of the down trend line, and the 10 , 50, 200 sma that we were watching as resistance are also now below Price. Oil is NOT overbought and could run right to the $70 area quickly.
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USO – We see a long term down trend line has been broken with big volume on the USO.
XOP COMMENTS – I wrote this in the live trading area and caught this chart Pre-mkt. This is important — we may be seeing another ‘CONTINUATION GAP’ similar to what I pointed out in the Miners. That run was very rewarding. READ THE CHART.
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We bought Energy stocks over the past 2 weeks near the lows ( similar to the ICL in Miners) and now we have a comfort zone
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XLE – This is XLE at the close and we have no gap fill, so as mentioned Monday morning, this could be a ‘continuation gap‘ like we saw with GDX & GDXJ. It is often a 1/2 way gap & run, that leaves most people behind. I did not sell my Miners then, and I did not sell my ENERGY Monday either. You can just use a stop at the gap now and these could run much higher..
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We could be close to a low in Gold & Miners cycle-wise (dcl), and we have the F.O.M.C. Mtg this week.
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This was GOLD Sept 12 Thursday – We had a day 28 low and could not break that 10sma on a closing basis…
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GOLD Sept 16 – So this would be day 32 or day 4. We are still under the 10 sma and this COULD break down for a day 33 or 34 low. I do not think that this will sell off very much this late in the count, but the Fed could cause a knee jerk reaction. It may be a ‘shake out & recovery’.
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GDX – So Gold & The Miners are quite oversold. Notice that GDX was rejected at the 10 sma & closed under the 50 sma last week…
GDX – Today brings us to day 31 or day 1. The FOMC RESULTS may drop this to a new low, but at day 31 Monday or possibly 33 Wednesday, I don’t think that it will drop TOO Much more from here this late in the daily cycle, but Miners can move quickly , so one needs to be a bit cautious. ..
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GDX is very oversold and a low is due. I almost want to buy ahead of the Fed, but I’m loaded up on Energy, so I will wait, but I may add to individual Miners.
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DRD – I already said that I bought DRD at the 50 sma last week. So far it looks like it may not break down by the time the next dcl comes into play.
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HMY – With a near perfect reversal at the 50 sma & a dcl due in Miners, this MIGHT BE the lows for HMY. It may become a leader and could be bought with a loose stop to avoid a FED DAY shake out.
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HL – And HL never broke down during this sell off, right? It is holding up fine, so I would say that you could buy it above the 50 sma with a stop there, and see if it plays catch up on the next move higher.
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We have the Fed Day ahead on Wednesday, so Tuesday may be simply more chop, more sideways, etc. Some Miners may be showing strength ahead of time, so I am watching those ones as possible stronger Miners for the next run. Check out HMY (above), DRD, EGO, Hl, etc.
Energy stocks popped & many were up 20% or more Monday, so they could pause & pullback or they could also just continue higher – it is hard to know short term. I expect higher prices over time though. Tuesday we can watch Energy stocks and also see if Gold breaks the recent lows or holds up, and watch to also see if individual Miners are holding up near support too.
Some Energy stocks are not over extended, so they actuality can still be bought, I will discuss this below.
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Enjoy your Tuesday trading!
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~ALEX
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We saw some real ‘Runners” in the Oil / Energy Sector Monday . This was in the live Trading area, take a look at these gains if you missed the days trading action…
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WLL – It looks like a pretty good pop, but this was actually a GREAT POP- a 50% Pop and it is trying to get above the 50sma. This is now 100% in 2 weeks. I was pushing this as a buy last week because of the upside potential, I hope some got it. I am letting mine ride for now.
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BAS – Bas was also breaking from a base last week, I posted these 2 charts on Sept 9…
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BAS – I added to Bas Monday & mentioned it in the live trading area at the open with this chart, because this looks like an A-B=C-D type move. It closed at $2.09 and I did not sell mine.
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DNR – I had 10 different charts on DNR recently, and here it was at $1.13 in a nice round base…
DNR – Monday it was up 30% ( Wow!) & actually hit $1.61. Could it drop due to the 200sma? It could, so read the chart…
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SO we are seeing HUGE breaks in some of the ones already mentioned & purchased here. Are there ‘Laggards’? Maybe ones that will try to play catch up?
VOC – I posted this in the Live area, and I bought it as a possible laggard breaking out. It is a buy with a stop at the 50 sma.
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LPI – I added to LPI. I hate the gap, but it may not fill and this is a 9 month base that may be breaking out. It could be in recovery mode.
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HOS – HOS was up almost 5% and is pushing on the 50 sma. A break out here may really get this running from the base. This should be on your watch list if you are looking to get into a low priced Oil stock that has not run away yet. BUY above the 50 sma.
