Friday – The Chance For Some Change
The various market sectors have been choppy and sideways, but with Fed Chair Powell speaking at Jackson Hole this morning ( U.S. Time), there is at least a chance for that to change. Let’s look at our markets…
I am releasing this after Midnight Eastern time, since I have a follow up Chiropractor appt in the Morning and will not be around. I should be back in the live chat right before the markets open though.
.
SPX – There was no change with this market Doji. A Doji is a sign of indecision, and the Markets are chopping sideways, stuck under the 50 sma. Will that change as the Fed discusses ideas for the economy going forward? ? We’ll have to see…
.
WTIC – Oil was rejected AGAIN at resistance. The MACD remains bullish, but this is exhibiting weakness or a lack of buying so far.
.
GOLD – I was really hoping that Gold would push higher heading into Friday. As mentioned yesterday, this can just chop sideways for weeks , as seen in June & July, but as time goes on, we are also getting later in our Intermediate Cycle. It will become due for a dip, so STAY ALERT – the Jackson Hole discussion may move this in either direction.
.
This COULD still be be a 1/2 cycle pause, but it needs to move higher Sooner than later, as ‘time’ is marching on in this Intermediate Cycle..
.
GDX #1– I drew a break out like this on GDX, but with GDX stuck under the 10sma ( Not good), I have thought about redrawing that…
.
GDX #2– If I change that top line, we don’t have a break out until we get above the 10sma. Look at the MACD & RSI. I have been saying that those are a warning sign to me, and they still are – but in this type of set up I have seen 1 more push to new highs, and you SELL INTO IT, because that will be 4 peaks with lower highs in the RSI- we would then be due for a DCL / ICL.
.
So with the current set up, Miners seem to need a catalyst to POP to new highs. Is it impossible? No, and I say that because some Miners are pushing at new recent highs already ( HMY, AU,RGLD, EGO, SGSVF, NSRPF, etc), so some Miners are exhibiting strength. I was hoping for the GDX / GDXJ set up to do exactly what they are doing – but so far GDX & GDXJ as ETFs are lacking the buying power.
In fact, Let’s take a look at a Miner …
.
DRD is one of our stronger Miners. It actually dropped on Wednesday below the 10sma, and I lost hope for it short term, thinking that this was starting a dcl dip. Well, it flipped Thursday with good volume & looks like it too wants to push higher like HMY did. So this could go either way at this point, and Miners like this keep the hope alive for legitimate reasons( not just wishful thinking).
SGSVF ( NSRPF & VNNHF too)– And I am STILL seeing bullish surprises to the upside in several Miners, so this adds to the hope that it is not too late for GDX & GDXJ to pop higher too.
.
So obviously it is NOT too late, but I have in the back of my mind that it IS getting late. Fed Powells discussion COULD help or hurt, and to be honest, I feel that ‘time’ is slowly running out for an upside pop, so I’d like to see some action soon. So with that…
.
Let’s see what happens Friday with the Jackson Hole Review. Let’s stay alert, let’s Stay Frosty, keep reasonable stops in place & we’ll hope for the best – the Fed is due to speak at 10 am Eastern Time.
.
~ALEX
.
BY REQUEST: DISNEY & TWITTER
.
DIS – Disney had good earnings, but it has gone no where and remains choppy trapped under the 50 sma. That could be a bear flag. I like that it gained the 10sma yesterday, but I would put a stop under August lows, because…
.
DIS WEEKLY- That Weekly chart looks like a possible bear flag too, with a MACD cross under. Wicks along the lows are good , but this needs to get back above that 10 weekly ma ( or 50sma daily) to show signs of recovering. A stop at recent lows is needed.
.
TWTR – This does look like a cup & handle, with a target of $47. So even though it is choppy and difficult to buy & hold, it is a longer term bullish set up. Success may depend on what happens to our General Markets too.
.
TWTR WEEKLY – When I look at the weekly, I would think that the Cup & Handle daily will help TWTR get to that $47.50 area and that also finishes forming this cup.
.
AU WEEKLY – With this chart I just wanted to show the difference between “DISNEY & TWTR’ Bullish charts, and some of our Miners. Look at the DIS & TWTR charts again. Yes, they are Bullishly trending higher, but they are also very Choppy & sideways. The Miners came out of bases running straight up like a Cheetah runs up a tree! So we have to admit that this has been a straight up rally, and therefore yes, Miners may be due for a pull back.
Looking at AU, we see that this has been a VERY BULLISH move and the pullback will be a great buying opportunity too. You are looking at the last 2 ICLs of August 2018 & May 2019 here. $7-$16, and $11 to $22.
.
GSS – I was asked what I think of GSS pop Thursday. It is actually a bullish 3 day reversal & break of a down trend. Do I love it? Well, since it has seriously lagged and we are now getting a bit late in the intermediate Cycle, I would GUESS that it may not strongly play catch up right now. It could tag the Blue line, chop around, get above it and run to the 50sma, then drop & chop again. So it is just my guess, but it may have some work to do as GDX / GDXJ start to drift lower into a dcl. You would be buying it at the lows for the long term though.
.
We saw Target TGT POP on earnings recently, and it looks excellent. Now look at the beaten down Nordstrom…
.
JWN – Beaten down from $65 to $25, it has reversed off of the lows this week and is up 21.5% ! I drew a falling wedge in Blue, so Nordstrom now looks bullish. If the Markets can remain bullish, this may start its recovery higher.
