Friday – August 30th
NOTE: Support will be working on and updating the website this weekend, so we are expecting it to be down from Friday around 5 p.m. Eastern to sometime into Saturday Evening. It is likely that I will not be able to release the weekend report until Sunday.
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SPX – Even though we still have the SPX stuck within this trading range…
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DJIA – I thought that the DJIA had a slightly bullish look to it, so this may be hinting at a break higher. Look at the Histogram & MACD. SOme have been ‘shorting’ the 50sma, and flipping at the lows. I would watch that 50 sma closely, this almost looks like it wants to break out higher.
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Take a look at the weekly charts of TRAN, IWM, SOXL. They are starting to look Bullish
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WTIC – OIl has found the follow through & closed just above the 50 sma. Yesterday I mentioned this:
There are signs ( small signs) that Oil may be improving.
1. The 50 sma has actually curled upward.
2. That may be a 1/2 cycle low or at least a higher low on day 13
3. A trend line was actually broken & Oil closed above the 10 sma (13 sma is shown). Then we looked at XOP…
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XOP – I mentioned yesterday that I bought GUSH at $3 with a reasonable stop, XOP represents GUSH. This looks bullish at this point.
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NATGAS AUG 26– Watch the 50sma
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NATGAS AUG 27– Watch the 50sma, price was rejected …
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On Thursday both NATGAS & UGAZ broke above the 50sma. They can be bought with a tight stop- NATGAS does get choppy at times and can be hard to ride, but it also can run very quickly. That said, it is a buy here.
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GOLD – Gold & SILVER Were higher in the morning trade, but Miners were selling off. By the close, GOLD & Silver sold off too. Yesterdays report mentioned that we have a long weekend ahead, and in my last weekend report I said that this week could be bullish, but things looked ready to top soon. Sunday night we then hit my $1550 target in Gold- so today is FRIDAY, and your choice is either Hold through a 3 day weekend when Gold trades Sunday through Tuesday? Or lighten up? I lightened up.
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SILVER – Silver dropped into the close too. That volume looks suspiciously heavy, so I wanted to check SLV and see if that volume was real …
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SLV – This is heavy volume and also a bearish engulfing. Silver may have topped at $18.60
GDX – This chart doesn’t look bad, except for some divergence, but GDXJ looks weaker.
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GDXJ –That MACD is quite weak, and we are at prior highs with the MACD HISTOGRAM dipping below zero. I think we are ready for a pull back.
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So I discussed the decision heading into the long weekend in yesterdays report. Consider this too: A storm is threatening Florida for Monday & Tuesday and it could knock out power for days. If you are in Florida, do you want to be fully invested under those conditions? So think about your circumstances and use today to make any adjustments. I sold my leverage and cut some positions, but after I saw the bearish engulfing in SLV when I got home, I sold a few more Silver Stocks in after hours. I sold CDE & EXK, I still have FSM I am almost 50% cash, but I have a position in GUSH, WTI, and NM that are not Miners, so I am less than 50% Miners now. I may trim more on Friday, I need to see what develops.
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NOTE: THE WEBSITE WILL BE SHUT DOWN BY SUPPORT TO DO SOME UPDATES AND MAINTENANCE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. I SHOULD HAVE THE WEEKEND REPORT OUT ON SUNDAY. I will also discuss a few trade ideas below, have a great weekend and now is the time to make any adjustments that will help you sleep better. Enjoy your Friday trading!
~ALEX
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WTI – Even though this still looks like a base building, other Oil / Energy stocks broke above their 50sma, so I bought this early and I like the volume that it closed with. I may be early, but the sector finally seems to be acting well.
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DNR – I pointed out DNR as possibly forming a base in yesterdays report. DNR is breaking higher, up through the 50 sma and closing up 9%. See also LPI, PDS, PEIX, AXAS, OAS, etc etc
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XOP for GUSH – XOP broke above the 13 sma, downtrend line, and should run to the 50sma.
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NATGAS & UGAZ broke above the 50sma. They can be bought with a tight stop- NATGAS does get choppy at times.
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NM – I mentioned the NM Run, this ran very stronly in June & July. NMis bullish and was 20 cents higher Thursday at $6.62. I think it can run above $8 if ‘Shippers’ remain bullish.
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FTK – FTK is another Shipper that Broke higher. When a small flat base forms and the highs are taken out with that divergence, it can be bought.
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