August 14 – Are You Still Hanging In There?
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I’ve heard the old expression, “What a difference a day makes”, but Now I truly understand the expression: “Wow what a difference a day makes! ”
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What can I say? We saw some wild action on Tuesday, and all I can do at this point is cover what we saw and discuss some possibilities. Some are stronger possibilities (General Markets and OIL) , others really changed the short term picture and need more time to play out ( GOLD, SILVER, & Miners). I am talking short term, because NOTHING has changed longer term for the precious metals. Lets take a look…
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SPX – We have been seeing some large 1 day moves in July & August. The BIG DROPS in the general markets made it look bearish. Now we have a nice higher low and that was a pretty good move on Tuesday. Price is still below the 50sma though…
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NASDAQ – The 10sma is the blue line and the NASDAQ closed above it & is pushing on the 50sma. The MACD is still a bit wide mouthed ( usually not good), but we’ll see what happens if price continues to run higher. For now, this reversal was recently a BUY WITH A STOP for any wanting to go long the General Markets, but they remain long term ‘uncertain’.
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WTIC – OIL looks suddenly Bullish (Again), back above that 50sma. Oil has simply been very choppy lately. That was a strong move in OIL, but…
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XOP – This is concerning. As strong as Oil moved, my XOP (Gush) Trade was weak in my opinion, stalling at the 10sma. I am still in that XOP trade, but this looked weaker than Oils move.
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USD – The USD broke above the 10 sma, so this finally looks like it wants to run higher. This is only day 5 of a new daily cycle, and normally this is BAD for GOLD — We shall see. This may be the clue to what Gold will do now, because Gold looks rather neutral…
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I have been pointing out this resistance in the $1500-$1550 area for a long time. Price tagged it and dropped / stalled so far.
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GOLD – We have a DOJI, and a DOJI is ‘indecision’- equal buying & selling. I can argue for the bullish side ( bounced off of the 10sma) I can argue for the Bearish side (short term), since the USD looks ready to run. This chart says that Gold hit $1546 after the contract change.
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SILVER – Silver also has a large High Volume Doji. SIlvers MACD actually looks good. At this point we need more time to see whether this was a shake out? Or a warning sign ( or both).
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GDX – Last week I drew a channel, expecting maybe higher price to $31 & then a drop.
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THIS IS WHAT I WROTE IN YESTERDAYS REPORT, EVEN THOUGH GOLD & SILVER WERE UP A LOT & WERE BREAKING FROM A BULL FLAG OVERNIGHT, THERE WAS DIVERGENCE TO CONSIDER.
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FROM MONDAYS REPORT…
GDX – I pointed out the RSI & MACD divergence last week. GDX is rising with weakness short term. It CAN still go higher, but will eventually top & drop into a dcl, due to this divergence. Monday GDX dropped with GOLD breaking higher. That is not encouraging.
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GDX – GDX dropped Tuesday and then recovered a bit with this candle almost back above the 10sma. I lightened up on Miners & reported it in the chat area. I am happy to lock in Gains and avoid the possible chop that we are seeing, but I will not sell everything, since ‘Surprises to the upside’ can happen in Bull markets. This reversal candle could still push price to $31 & then a drop, but the USD also looks like it wants to run higher. This can also drop to the lower channel line.
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JDST – JDST had a very high volume spike a week ago and I mentioned that that could be a high volume capitulation low. So far, THAT actually was the low & JDST moved from $12 to $15. JDST could move even higher if GDX & GDXJ are ready to dip down.
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– The General Markets improved and look as though they want to move higher, but the MACD is wide open and price is still under that 50sma.
– OIL had some strong follow through, but if you look at charts, XLE look good, XOP is ‘ok’, But the OIH is weak, so more time will help us there.
– We saw GOLD & SILVER rocket higher Monday night, in fact, I think gold was up $20-$30 pre-market Tuesday, and suddenly it just crashed down.
– Miners dropped sharply Tuesday, but tried to regain some of that drop into the close. Was it a 1 day drop similar to the FED DROP in this chart? The MACD & USD make it look like more downside is due, but only time will tell.
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I lightened up on some of my Miners for now, but I do still have a basket to catch any upside if there is a little more to this run. We’ll have to wait and see what Wednesday brings, I should be in the live chat area Wednesday Morning and will post anything that might be ‘important’ if I see anything.
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I have a few things to share below, Enjoy your Wednesday trading.
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~ALEX
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Many junior MJ stocks were looking good lately. I posted this and you can check these chart to see how they are playing out. They are still moving out of the lows.
EMHTF – I posted this and mentioned that I actually bough this one. Notice the divergence at the lows. They came out with good earnings news and this move doesn’t look like much, but it was up 15% as I posted. It closed up 20%
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SPRWF – This is a big 2 day move ( 30%) and the volume is increasing.
TLRY – This set up looked great as a higher low above the 10sma, so I took a small starter position. I didn’t realize that they were set to release earnings last night until I was already in it. Well, it was a small starter position, so I just held on. It closed the day ‘after hrs’ down at $41. I am going to have to take a loss if it breaks recent lows.
