Wednesday July 24th – The Choppiness Gets A Bit Boring
SPX – Day 17 looked like a 1/2 cycle low and now I’ve been expecting a drop to a dcl. Honestly, I would have expected a drop to the rising 50 sma, but the 20 sma has held as support. This might be the dcl on day 32. How do you play it? You can Buy with a tight stop if you wish to go or stay long the general Markets ( UPRO, TQQQ, and I pointed out SOXL or semis a while ago as a buy).
In Early June I mentioned ( and tweeted out) that SEMIs looked ready. SOXL was a Buy near $100, and I mentioned that a run to even $150 would be great, but I was personally buying Miners at the ICL.
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I posted this chart on June 27th , now near $150 and breaking above the 50 sma …
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SOXL – Now SOXL is $184, so it is heading for a double ( JNUG has more than doubled since then). So this was a good trade & continues to act correctly.
QQQ – After a sharp drop last Friday to the 20sma, the NASDAQ reversed higher too. It became a back test of the recent break out. TQQQ also could be bought with a tighter stop. This also could be a shallow dcl, but if the real dcl is ahead, a stop will take you out of the trade.
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WTIC – Oil has been difficult and choppy, but Wednesday is when the oil inventory report is released and that can move oil. We are approaching a resistance area, so we’ll see which way Oil goes. With June looking like an ICL, this may be the higher low at day 30 (DCL) and it is oversold, but I have seen Oil go 40-50 days for a dcl too. I am not interested in a trade in Oil yet. I’m personally still heavily invested in Miners.
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USD DAILY FROM YESTERDAYS REPORT- It could run to 98
USD DAILY – It really took off yesterday, and looks to be an inverse H&S, target 98.25
USD WEEKLY – I do still expect this eventually.
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GOLD – The USD really moved higher Tuesday, but Gold just dropped down to the 20 sma. This is a 4 week consolidation, and Gold has held up VERY NICELY, even with the USD running higher. This still looks very good, and a long consolidation does away with the overbought condition.
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DOJI – This was a real chart, and my point is that a DOJI after a run higher or move lower can signal indecision and even a reversal. NOTICE ON THIS CHART THE 2nd DOJI at the highs. IT DID NOT MEAN A BIG DROP WAS COMING, but it did signal that price was possibly reversing, at least short term. A consolidation started. Now we’ll look at Silver…
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SILVER – With Silver I see a DOJI, so we have indecision at these highs within this consolidation. We could drop from here, but I’m not expecting a deep drop. I’ve expected a 1/2 cycle low, but so far it has simply flagged, so maybe we get that dip here to the 10sma? Also…
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SILVER may do what GOLD did– form a bull flag consolidation, and that can keep it from falling to the 10sma. We’ll have to wait and see how this plays out.
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NOTE: This is SILVER now as I write the report at 11 P.M. Eastern – Silver is now already pushing higher tonight, and it is possible that the ‘Pause’ is over and Silver could continue higher with a surprise to the upside. This also fits the idea of that Bull Flag.
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GDX #1 – So Miners dipped as GOLD dropped and Silver put in that Doji. We did get a day 15 peak on Tuesday for this daily cycle, and that is good. This could chop sideways as shown here, or…
GDX #2 – Or we can get a drop down to the 10 or 20 sma for a 1/2 cycle low. I do not think the run is complete at $28, though that was my initial target. I think $31 is very likely.
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Nothing really changed with the precious metals. We could see choppiness until we enter that Fed mtg next week. The EU is scheduled to make a rate cute decision today, and that MIGHT affect this sector. Time will tell. Oil has the oil inventory report to be released Wednesday, and the General Markets might have finished their pull back. If that was a dcl for the General markets, that was VERY shallow. I really expected a drop to the 50sma, but this reversal at the 20sma can be bought with a tight stop (or add to current longs) if you want to trade the general markets.
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For those that went in heavy with me at the Precious Metals ICL, it has actually been very easy to handle the chop and consolidation periods. We used the ‘Buy & Hold’ method and did not worry so much about the wiggles- our gains are now a cushion during the choppy times. As a reminder, I am expecting this to reach the 2016 highs in this intermediate cycle.
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Let’s see what Wednesday brings our way!
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~ALEX
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Just a few additional thoughts here
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I’ve said that I’m not trading in & out of my Miners, but as an experienced ‘trader’, I did see a short term ‘sell signal’ or ‘topping’ signal on one of them, so I took it for now. This does NOT mean I am bearish, it is just a trade, so I’ll explain…
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USAS – USAS gapped open by 11 cents, and then sold down below Mondays lows. IF IT CLOSED DOWN THERE, that is a bearish engulfing. It doesn’t always mean a huge sell off is coming, but it usually means a temporary top is in place, so I cashed out at $2.92 and posted this chart with those thoughts. And…
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USAS – It did close as a bearish engulfing, so here I have drawn a possible downside target where I may look to re-enter. The 10 & 20 sma may be where I look for a reversal. IF THIS JUST FLIPS HIGHER & TAKES OFF – SURPRISES TO THE UPSIDE? I may need to find a replacement silver stock. And remember this…
I do think this will go higher over time. This was one of my first “BUY CHARTS” for USAS, and it showed the upside potential. I do think that this will just keep climbing higher over time. It IS a silver stock 🙂
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Yesterday I mentioned that even the small junior miners and explorers are starting to run higher with volume, so I thought I would show another example.
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SZSMF – I noticed the 200,000 volume on this one early in the morning, so I posted this in the live comment area.
SZSMF – Again, Laggards may play catch up, and many other Miners were in the red at the close, while this one continued to climb into the close with over 400,000 volume.
I call these High Risk, and they are, but so far quite a few have doubled this month.
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AKS – Recently I discussed the other METALS like X, AKS, CLF, HBM, etc AKS still looks health, though it has been a bit choppy along the 50sma. It looks ready to run again with steady volume coming in now…
CLF – CLF has been running higher since it was mentioned, but this is not an easy ride. These have been very choppy. Pop & Drop style is just not easy to own, but it is holding up along the 20sma and is forming a larger cup.
HBM – HBM Popped with great volume, but met resistance at the green 200 sma line.
1. It is now sitting on the 10 & 50sma
2. It also sits on a magenta trend line
3. So it might be ready to try again to push higher & break through that 200sma .
4. I own this, but a break down from here will have me cashing out.
