Wednesday July 17th – Catching Up
Finally, Silver is starting to play CATCH UP with GOLD. I’ve been discussing this for a while and now we are seeing Silver show us some strength. I’ll discuss this a bit more in todays report after reviewing the various market sectors…
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SLV / GLD RATIO – Silver looks ready to try to catch up with Golds run.
SPX – On day 30, this may be the start of the pull back into a dcl. Stops would be under the 10sma, but even selling 1/2 and then allowing the stops to work would lock in gains.
TRAN -Amazingly, the TRANSPORTS were not healthy an suddenly they’ve been surging higher.
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VIX – The VIX looks ready to pop higher, and that usually adds volatility to the markets and downward pressure. For example, the VIX ran higher after the May 3 FED MTG, and the Markets sold off in early May.
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WTIC – Oil was dipping down Monday, so I wrote this- Watch to see if we get a possible back test of the recent break out.
WTIC – Oil plunged 3.29% with volume, breaking below ‘support’ and because this is only day 28, this could drop for many days. If I was in Oil, I probably would have sold out and waited to see what happens, rather than wait & see if it can recover. Oil has been quite choppy.
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USD – The USD looks strong, and as mentioned before, that looks like an ICL. I see a possible inverse H&S. The good news is that with the USD ramping higher, SILVER was unaffected & actually broke out. Gold stumbled a bit, but it didn’t drop the way it used to when the USD had a strong day.
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SILVER / GOLD RATIO – Every time I Tweet about a Silver stock, it seems like someone contacts me and laments that Silver is dead, Silver is bearishly warning us that Golds rally is fake, etc. Now we see that the Silver / Gold Ratio finally broke out higher. When this happened in MARCH of 2016 and Silver stocks took off higher.
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GOLD 4 hr chart – Yesterday I pointed out that Gold had that small choppy triangle formation inside of the bigger flag, and I mentioned that it could break higher or lower. It broke down, and as you can see, and looks to have even a bit more downside room possible.
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SILVER – Yesterdays report was based on Silver looking ready to break out. Volume was increasing as it was Pushing. Silver did break out higher, and should run further too. I discussed targets in yesterdays report.
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SILVER FROM YESTERDAYS REPORT – That should have said $15.50 on this chart is a break out, and Silver ran above $15.70 yesterday
SILVER – The break out. If silver drops and back tests, that is normal, we won’t worry about it, but it can also extend higher from here rapidly.
GDX – I still do not love this charts divergence, but I am ignoring the divergence & light volume at recent highs for now. This type of set up can correct itself, but it usually takes time, and that is why I drew a sideways move as my expectation last week.
GDXJ – GDXJ actually looks a bit better, maybe because the Silver Junior are popping and moving it higher.
SILJ – This is what I want to see in GDX & GDXJ, a solid convincing sign of strength with volume. This is the Silver junior ETF.
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When I say that GDX or GDXJ can repair itself (Divergence) This is what we want to see. I think when GOLD breaks that flag, GDX & GDXJ will do what PAAS did yesterday
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We’ve been invested in Miners for quite a while now, and it keeps paying off to hold our positions and even add on the dips if you are not as invested as you’d like to be. The Big Picture set up, described in each weekend report, continues to play out, and we have been patient when time calls for patience. I have been saying that when Silver finally breaks out, you want to own Silver Miners, so we started accumulating those a while ago. That really continued to pay off for many Tuesday. Again, after a big up day, you might see a slight pause, but this upward action should continue in the near future.
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I will discuss some Silver stocks below, enjoy your Wednesday trading!
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~ALEX
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So many people were concerned that Silver wasn’t breaking out, that they didn’t buy Silver Miners. We were buying at the May FOMC & MINUTES release and they are already up nicely, even though Silver just broke out. We want to remember that, because that may explain why Silver may move higher and your Silver stock may not move very much. That could be because it is already up 30 or 40 % since being bought in May. Let’s review a few Silver stocks.
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AG – AG is up about 50% from that wedge break out, 40+% from the moving averages in May. Even though it is well ahead of Silver, it also has a LOT of potential if you look at the Bigger picture on the next chart…
I drew this chart on June 28 to show that potential, especially when it moved above that 50 & 200 weekly ma in 2016. This is a large base. Prior highs will be attainable.
ASM – Midday Tuesday I grabbed this chart as a ‘lagger silver stock’ that looks fine and may play catch up . It was up 6%, and…
ASM -It closed up almost 10%, but still looks like it is just starting to run (Stochastics). This can be bought here with a stop under recent lows. It has not performed well, but that can change with Silver breaking out higher.
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AXU chart #1 – I also grabbed this one Midday, looking ready to break out from a downtrend . It closed right at that line at $1.29. 
AXU Chart #2 – Tuesday Volume also came in strong at 1.3 million. That strong volume makes it look like it is going to easily break out above that Magenta line in the chart above.
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EXK #1 – EXK did a V-Bottom and sprung back up over the 50sma with big volume in the first 15 minutes, the first 1/2 hr, and 1 hr of time. I posted this in the live discussions below the report yesterday and mentioned that I bought it Tuesday morning.
EXK #2 – By the close, volume was very big and this is still closer to oversold than over bought. It can run and …
EXK #3 – This is not out of the question short term, since most of these are working to get back to recent highs and form Cups. I drew this at 11:23 am, so that volume wasn’t even there yet.
MAG – June 4, I mentioned that this can pull back into a cup & handle formation, and the handle would be a buy…
MAG – Here we see that the cup & handle did form. I posted this after the first hour of trading with Mag up 3% as a buy, it was a reversal on the 50 sma. Place a stop right there & it is low risk entry. It is also very oversold…
MAG – This is still a buy , and it remains oversold. MAG ran very nicely from Dec to March, as seen here.
USAS – USAS was red for the first hour of trading, but that is ok, because it recently ran from roughly $1.60 to $2.50 , even when Silver wasn’t breaking out. Well, it caught fire as the day went on and was even up over 10%, but pulled back a bit into the close. Am I concerned? No, I’ve seen this plenty of times, and in fact …
NGD – Maybe you remember when NGD did that last week? It is still running higher, despite sellers taking some profits that day. So USAS still looks fine to me, plus we bought that over a month ago and have good profits already .
HL – Hecla is a lagger. They have lawsuits in place against them, but I do not think that will stop this from running. We see those types of lawsuits all of the time, Lawyers trying to bring complaints against a company during hard times. This can run, put it on your watch list and keep an eye on it if you don’t want to simply enter it with a stop here. YOU DO NEED A STOP THOUGH.
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PLNHF – I put this in the live trading area too. This is an MJ stock. It looks ready to break out , almost 1 million in volume was pouring in, so I wanted to mention it in case you wanted this on our watch list. And…
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PLNHF – Oversold and almost 2 million in volume. This looks ready to go.
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MY CONSTANT REMINDER: DO NOT OWN JUST 1 or 2 MINERS, THE INDIVIDUAL RISK IS HIGH. OWN A SMALL BASKET OR AN ETF. ALSO CHECK & SEE WHEN THEIR EARNINGS ARE DUE, YOU MAY WANT TO LIGHTEN UP BEFORE EARNINGS, THOUGH SOME ARE DOING WELL. FSM HAD EARNINGS MONDAY & TOOK OFF TUESDAY.
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YESTERDAYS REPORT HAD FSM AS A BUY, when it quickly dropped and filled a gap , then recovered the 50sma.
FSM– Monday they released updates on their Mining results, and Tuesday saw FSM jump almost 15% and this was a lagger too. In fact…
FSM– This chart shows that FSM has GREAT POTENTIAL if it continues to play catch up.
