July 25th – More Clues
SPX- In yesterdays report I wrote…
SPX – Day 17 looked like a 1/2 cycle low and now I’ve been expecting a drop to a dcl. Honestly, I would have expected a drop to the rising 50 sma, but the 20 sma has held as support. This might be the dcl on day 32. How do you play it? You can Buy with a tight stop if you wish to go or stay long the general Markets ( UPRO, TQQQ, and I pointed out SOXL or semis a while ago as a buy).
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SPX – With shallow dips along the way, raising stops at higher lows would have even been enough to keep one in the trade. To be honest- I did mention at the last peak that with cycle timing, one could raise stops or possibly even just sell & looking to get back in at the dcl, but this did not dip that much so far. That is why I mentioned re-buying in recent reports if you sold. This could be a shallow dcl.
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QQQ from yesterday – I also said that you could Buy with a stop. It has moved a little higher since then too…
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SOX – A while ago I mentioned buying SOXL at the ICL (lows) and also again when the SOX broke the 50sma. We also looked at some semi conductor stocks like TSEM, MU, AMD, CY, and a few others from time to time.
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SOX WEEKLY – The SOX is now making new highs again and is over $1600, so I want to discuss both SEMIs and MINERS again at the end of this report.
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WTIC – Oil dropped Wednesday. I have mentioned that Oils daily cycles can last 40-50 days and this one may not be finished dropping. The June lows should not be broken if it is an ICL, and Something very interesting is this…
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XLE – The XLE, OIH, and XOP are acting moving slowly higher while Oil drops. This may signal that Oil is going to bottom soon too.
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GOLD – This simple chart shows GOLD and a blue large flag, or GOLD with the lower red line of higher lows making a smaller tighter flag. Gold can drop to the blue line, but so far it is holding up well.
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GOLD – Wednesday Gold tagged that upper line again , but couldn’t break out. I want to show you something interesting though- another perspective. If I remove the daily candles and clear this picture up…
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GOLD – This looks more like a bullish running correction. This view would allow price to bounce around the yellow lines into the FED MTG, and then a break out one way or the other next week. It still looks bullish.
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SILVER – I discussed that this resistance can stall Silver, and it would remain bullish, but…
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SILVER – Silver paused with a DOJI recently, but it just keeps eating its way right through that area. That is Bullish action.
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YESTERDAY I posted this saying that #1 – GDX could chop sideways or…
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#2- It could pull back with a 1/2 cycle low.
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GDX #1 – So far option #1 is working, and may allow the 10sma to catch up to price and then run higher.
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GDX #2 – Here I wanted to show how volume dried up on that last sideways move, because volume is drying up now too.
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GDX #3 – Notice that Volume suddenly popped on the break out days. That is what I look for and have discussed a lot in the past.
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GDXJ – GDXJ also had light volume until the push higher too, so I am not worried about the light volume that we currently see.
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Below I want to discuss some ideas with Miners and the Semiconductor stocks. SO far this week Gold has been flagging sideways, Silver chugged a bit higher, and GDX & GDXJ are also chopping sideways, but some Individual Miners are doing their own thing, continuing higher. We’ll see what happens on Thursday, but for now …
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Enjoy your Thursday trading!
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~ALEX
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CDE – Some Miners are pulling back or sliding sideways to support areas like the 10 or 13 sma, so I added a little more to my current position.
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GORO – Goro has been a laggard, but notice that it did break out from a downtrend. The potential upside is good, let’s zoom in..
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GORO – I grabbed this an hour before the close and posted it as a buy set up. It is near support, the MACD & RSI are strong, and it is not extended. It was up 6%, but then closed up at $3.88 up 8%. I think it may be ready to continue higher.
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SBGL – We bought this way down near the 200 sma area, and then on July 10th I posted this as a buy before it breaks out. It formed an inverse H&S…
SBGL – VERY SLOWLY it is still making gains, but if Gold breaks higher, I think this could pick up speed.
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SBGL – This is also a Platinum Play, since they bought SWC (Still water Mining) back in May 2017.
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VGZ – This is another one that some of us bought down in the 56-58 cent area. I posted this in the morning, since it also looks bullishly set up as a cup & handle now and may be ready to break out & run. When I bought this in May under 60 cents…
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VGZ – I posted this big picture to show the long term potential.
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EDXC ( MJ Doggie treats)- As a side note, put this on your watch list if you are interested. After a parabolic run, I leave a stock alone to allow it time to base out. When this starts moving higher, it could easily double, triple, etc. Another drop to the 200sma would be a gift.
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Now I want to revisit the Semiconductors, since the SOX is at new highs again. As you will see, this sector can be very choppy and difficult, but also it offers good trading for day traders or scalpers. So some of these stocks may be ok to buy & hold, others are for traders that like to ‘scalp’ gains on a stock running higher, they may be just a bit too choppy for some. (I’m personally still just focusing on Miners at this point).
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REVIEW: With this chart, SOXL was recommended at $100 in June when the ICL was due, and a simple run to the $150 (50 sma) would have been great.
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Breaking the 50sma and back testing, it was a buy again in early July (or add) . Semis were hot, but also they can be choppy, as seen here. SOXL has now doubled. If you missed SOXL, but caught JUNG at the May ICL – Don’t worry-
JNUG is almost up 200% from May lows
SOXL up 100% since May lows
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So let’s discuss some semiconductor stocks , other than CY, MU, AMD, etc etc . Some people investing in Miners also may want to trade in the General Markets to either diversify a little more, or to ‘scalp trade ‘ as day traders.
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ATTN ROCKY OR JT: SCALPERS or DAY TRADERS
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VSH DAILY – VSH is a laggard, since it bottomed at the ICL in May, but has not ripped higher with the SOX. VSH built a base, and yesterday it broke a down trend & popped from that base. This can run to $22.50 (former Feb highs), and…
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VSH WEEKLY – Stepping back you can see a recovery possibly taking place. If Semis continue to be bullish, VSH can run at least to the purple line, maybe higher. It can also run to the 2018 highs over time.
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LFUS – Semis can move fast and this has taken off, quickly running from $165 to $190 in a week, heading to $205 most likely. If it pulls back or bull flags here, it can be bought with a stop, but for a day trader or ‘scalper’ like Rocky or JT in our live trading area, this could be bought using intraday charts. This looks to me like it will run to $200, stall, and continue higher. Why do I say that?
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LFUS WEEKLY – This may also be a longer term recovery in the making. Breaking above the blue line at $200 could send this back to new highs. This is a 1 year base.
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MTSI – This one looks extended and may have just formed a cup. If it forms a handle at $20 & remains bullish, you can buy it. Why do I like this for the watch list?…
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MTSI – This is just starting to break from this 1.5 yr base & above the 50 week MA. This is actually a very bullish set up with extreme potential IF IT CONTINUES TO RECOVER. This was an $85 semi trading under $15 this year. I just don’t know if the General Markets & Semis will continue to run long term or even all this year, but at this point, if you like the semiconductor sectors potential? This is a bullish looking base.
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DIOD DAILY – In June DIOD bottomed at $31 and has moved to $42 ( with a 7% pop Wednesday). It now seems to have formed a cup too & could build a handle. It also may run a bit higher before it tops, because…
DIOD WEEKLY – This looks like maybe $46 is a topping area. Though it is in an uptrend, this is NOT a good buy & hold, unless you can handle this kind of action.
NXPI SCALP TRADE – I hate the gap here, but NXPI popped 4% yesterday, and could run to the $125 area. Maybe good for the day traders looking to scalp some quick gains.
MU – I pointed out semiconductors back in late April too. MU was pinched and looked ready to break out, so a break out could be bought with a stop. Instead, MU broke DOWN below that 50sma…
MU – MU then formed a double bottom with a higher low & MACD divergence and seems to be recovering too. This could run straight to prior highs over time, but it might be best to wait and see if it pauses with a bull flag or consolidation before buying it. It can run to former highs if the sector remains bullish, and that would be good gains ( watch list)
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ON – So many of the semis are popping. This is not a buy, it is getting late if it is only going to run to former highs, but I wanted to show that many in the sector are acting correctly.
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TSEM MARCH 2019 – Built a base from the November lows near $12.
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TSEM July 24 – TSEM Popped 12% yesterday, so you can put it on a watch list and see if it bull flags or consolidates, but that is not all…
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TSEM WEEKLY – breaking over the 50 week ma, TSEM looks quite bullish as it pushes from this base.
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NOT A SEMI- JUST AN UPDATE:
SNAP – last month I mentioned that SNAP should get to the $21 area, with a measured move…
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SNAP – Snap got choppy and that is always tough to hold on to, but then it popped up 19% on Wednesday after releasing earnings. It is still on its way to the $21 area.
