July 21 Weekend Wrap
SPX – I have mentioned that the SPX Daily is due for a drop into dcl (Daily Cycle Low). Here in the big Picture we see a reversal at the resistance. That drop may have begun.
SPX – This may drop into the FED MTG at the end of the month, and then put in a dcl. We’ll monitor it in the daily reports to see if it is a bounce & Top (blue & red arrows) or break out to new highs (green arrows) .
TRAN -The TRANS started to improve, but we do now see a weekly Doji (indecision).
.
I drew this possibility back in May…and this would lead to a bearish market sell off if we don’t CONVINCINGLY break to new highs & run a bit.
.
STAY FROSTY – Even with this bounce, that broadening top megaphone pattern can still play out, and the weekly chart has reached overbought levels. Is the FED just delaying the drop?
.
WTIC – Oil dropped sharply this week. It may bounce at the 200 week MA green line as a dcl, or it may break down. Oil is choppy and difficult to trade unless you only trade it short term.
.
I have been drawing this USD wedge for a long time, and I can show you charts like this that go back for months showing a break down like this. That said, I do want to admit that I am Biased. I feel that the USD is going to drop for a long period of time, allowing GOLD, SILVER, and the Miners to rally for long periods of time too.
,
USD – I see a Bearish rising wedge break down & now a possible back test forming. This chart COULD BE ALSO VIEWED AS BULLISH in a couple of ways, since it is oversold & has held up for months with choppy sideways churning. For now I am leaning toward this outcome.
.
GOLD WEEKLY – STARTING with the Big Picture View, this is the important break that I have been waiting for for MONTHS & YEARS! This can lead to years of trending higher, and the volume that I said I needed to see to confirm this break out did come in. This is a great looking chart, so we need to try not to let the day to day wiggles emotionally affect us. ( Anyone is free to Trade around daily cycle lows if you want to, or sell something extended to buy a less extended Miner, etc , but my recommendation is to always hold a basket ( or etf) of something when the Bull is running.
.
GOLD FLAG – Now we zoom in to Fridays drop. Yes, this can break down a bit more, but I am thinking that it would just be a 1/2 cycle low and then another push higher. I was asked, ” The Bull Flag that you saw broke out and back. Does a false break out mean we go to the lows?” No, it doesn’t, but along with that, This isn’t quite a ‘false break out’ yet. It may end up being one, but let me show you a more bullish idea…
GOLD BACK TEST? – A Bull flag is still a flag with price above the APEX, so this didn’t really fail yet in my opinion. It MIGHT next week, but so far, it is ok. This could be a pull back that doesn’t break down. Do you remember the Bull Flag that I said was a buy in CDE?…
.
CDE BROKE OUT – When CDE broke out, I mentioned that it could drop first and then run on this July 10 chart…
.
CDE – It did just that. CDE broke out & dropped back, just like Gold has now done. CDE (or Gold so far) didn’t crash below the APEX. IMPORTANT: That Doesn’t mean that Gold will definitely now run higher, but this shows you that it might do as CDE did, and that was still a bit Choppy. We’ll now very soon, since Gold opens 6 p.m. Sunday night Eastern Time.
.
SILVER – This was a weekly break out for Silver last week. The past few weeks have been EXCELLENT for our accounts and now SILVER joined in. Look at that volume.
.
SILVER WEEKLY BIGGER PICTURE – Focusing on the Big Picture in the weekend reports, we see that the upside potential over time for Silver is great. Notice volume spiking as it tries to break free.
.
WITH THAT BIG PICTURE BULLISHNESS IN YOUR MIND, NOW WE CAN COMFORTABLY DISCUSS THE DROP FRIDAY. BELOW YOU CAN READ WHAT I WROTE IN FRIDAYS REPORT FOR SILVER & RESISTANCE.
.
SLV – So the SLV pushed into that resistance zone, but now dropped on Friday. This can lead to a normal pull back that causes some Bulls to exit positions. A Bull likes to Shake off the riders from time to time. How long will it drop for?…
SLV – There is no way to know for sure, but we have 3 gaps open in a row. It would make sense that 2 of them could fill as price tags the 10sma area. Hi volume reversals off of the top can lead to additional selling.
SLV – This is a visual that adds CYCLE COUNT, so this may be a normal 1/2 cycle low coming up.
1. Look at The 1st Red Arrow in May as the ICL, the next dip started at day 8 to a 1/2 cycle low
2. Look at The 2nd red arrow in July as a dcl, we are on day 10, and now a dip to a 1/2 cycle low?
.
Below is my GDX from Fridays report – I did have a $28 price target as my initial cal, and GDX was at 28. Even though we dipped Friday, I’m thinking that we might get the same 1/2 cycle low here & more upside, so…
.
GDX TARGETS FROM FRIDAYS REPORT – I pointed out my FIB TARGETS upside, which can be reached after we get a dip. Notice that $30.79 is my next TARGET. And then even $32 – $34.56 are actual Fib targets.
GDX WEEKLY – That would match this expectation of getting back to 2016 highs nicely.
.
This is also from FRIDAYS REPORT – I wrote this Friday, basically saying Sell if you are more comfortable doing so, locking in some profits, but I do expect higher price for those willing to ride the waves. And I do not recommend selling ‘everything’. Surprises may come to the upside.
.
GDX – So let’s go to the really big picture and I’ll point out something else now. I have been taking this 1 step at a time. We are now very close to reaching that step of 2016 highs (with these additional targets possible). That now leads up to the next step, a MUCH HIGHER TARGET over time. 2012 highs and 2011 highs eventually.
GDX – Look at it this way. The small MAGENTA BASE produced the 2016 rally. What can this giant Yellow base produce? A Giant rally of its own back to prior highs is possible.
HUI BIG PICTURE – I want to show the run of the HUI for 2 reasons.
1. REASON #1– In the start of the Bull run of 2000, HUI was $35. That is the same as GDXJ now. By the end of the run, HUI went from $35 to $638. WOW! Can you imagine if GDXJ runs from $35 to even only $300 in a few years? I think we’ll all be very well rewarded for riding the Bull in Miners. The other reason for this chart…
.
1. REASON #2– Many of us remember the financial crisis of 2008. Miners got hit hard as everything was sold off and cashed in. Well, in OCT 2008 lows, you’ll see that the HUI was the same price that was at this current ICL. It was just 3 years later that it was $638, so you can see that when Everyone is jumping into this sector, it can move swiftly.
.
Those Bull runs in the Mining Sector were great, and I think we are heading into that kind of Bull run again. The SPX is at all time highs, but can it remain so bullish , even with Fed cutting Rates? We shall see. Oil has been breaking down, rallying, and breaking down again, so it is pretty choppy. The Precious Metals sector has broken out from multi year bases, and I love the way things have been shaping up. Safe to say, in this short period of time, our accounts have been shaping up nicely too (May to July). Bull runs of the past look great in hindsight, but trust me, they still had ICLs, DCLs, and were even very choppy at times, so we do need to expect that, and I can help to navigate that along the way too. It was still always important to analyze the moves at times when that Bull run 2000-2012 got choppy, but Gains were very special over time.
.
My daily weekday reports are designed to get us through the smaller cycles, track movement and maybe give us shorter term targets. That can help us to understand the moves that we are seeing. My Weekend Reports are designed to keep everyone focused on the Big Picture Goals and Targets. You can see from this Big Picture wrap up that even though Friday saw us give back some of our exceptional gains, the path still looks to be higher and the gains should continue to get better over time. Shorter term, the draw-down Friday may be part of a dip into a 1/2 cycle low, and that can last for a couple of days. Unfortunately that means that we may have even more selling in the days ahead if the Buyers don’t step in. It is hard to say for sure, because Bull markets also often give surprises to the upside, so we’ll just have to wait and see what Monday brings our way. Again, the important thing with this Weekend Report is to see that the The Big Picture remains very bullish!
.
Enjoy the rest of your Sunday!
.
~ALEX
.
THIS IS JUST A QUICK BIG PICTURE REVIEW
.
GDX PROJECTION FORM MARCH – It should reach the prior highs
GDX NOW – Even with Fridays selling? RIGHT ON TRACK SO FAR 🙂
GDX WEEKLY – BULLISH
