July 10th – Waiting It Out
On Wednesday, Powell will face the House Financial Services Committee for the first round of questioning from lawmakers. The Fed will also release minutes from its June 19 meeting on Wednesday, and at this point, the Fed funds futures contracts are currently pricing in a 100% chance of at least 25 basis points of cuts.
Now let’s look at our markets Pre-Fed Testimony…
SPX – The SPX reversed right on the 8 ema. A stop has been raised from under the 50sma to under the 1/2 cycle low, because that low should now hold as the next higher low.
SPX – I do see a bearish rising wedge, but the lower trend line is not what I would call technically accurate, so I am ignoring that for now. The Fed will be on display today, we’ll see if this break up , down, or chops further. Day 25 indicates that a dip could start at any time.
NASDAQ – The NASDAQ is almost at new highs and this chart actually looks pretty good, but like the SPX, being on Day 25 indicates that a dip could start at any time.
TRAN – The transports do look a little more worrisome, they look ready to break down actually. Read the chart.
VIX – Read the chart.
WTIC – Oil is still pushing at resistance, day 23 can be about midpoint for a 40+ daily cycle. Oil inventory is released on Wednesday mornings Eastern Time. Oil can rise to $59 and still be at the trend line
I just want to mention that some SHIPPERS ( TOP, SB, NM, maybe TNK soon) Are breaking out and running lately. They were basing out in the March , April, May time period and I was covering them, but when MINERS took off, I stopped covering them a lot. We traded NM, DCIX, etc.
Well this is SB when I covered it as a base…
SB – This is what SB has done in the past 2-3 weeks, moving straight up. TOPS popped out of a base yesterday.
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BITCOIN – Not only does BITCOIN continue to run higher as expected, but I wanted to point out HOW A BULL RUNS. Look at BITCOIN here. Those choppy consolidations are Very Big, so when you think of what GOLD is doing right now? Look at these consolidations. Gold is currently forming a flag or Box consolidation too. Each drop seems bearish, but then it ran higher.
GOLD – These moves drive the Bulls & The Bears crazy, day after day after day. Basically it is still in a trading range, but I expect it to eventually break to the upside ( like Bitcoin has).
SILVER – Silver actually reversed off of the 200 sma support again. Wednesday is day 30, this is due for a dcl any day. How about on a Fed Minutes Wednesday or the day after? 🙂
GDX – True break away gaps do not usually fill, and ‘continuation gaps’ do not have to either. This actually looks ready to move higher again. Is that due to the FOMC MINUTES release coming up? We’ll see.
GDX – I have had a rough target of $28 and that could complete on the next run. This is a 2+ week consolidation, it may be enough.
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So let’s take a look at a few Miners
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AAU – 2+ week consolidation on the 200 sma. You could buy this with a tight stop, or start a smaller position here, stop under the RED 50sma & add to that smaller position if it drops there & reverses. I DO NOT think that this will drop unless Gold really sells down.
GPL – GPL is not far from the lows, but it looks constructive here, breaking above & back testing the 50 & 200sma. This is also an easy buy with a stop.
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IAG – Bull Flag up 3% Tuesday. Ready to start breaking higher?
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It can be a tad boring ‘Waiting ‘ for a consolidation to end, but when the run out of that consolidation comes, it can be quite rewarding. Maybe the release of the FED MINUTES and the release of the Fed Testimony, will release the miners from their bull flags?
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We’ll see if Wednesday moves us back into the fast lane. Below I will discuss a few other ideas.
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~ALEX
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URANIUM STOCKS ARE POPPING WITH VOLUME
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UEC – These have been extremely choppy & difficult to hold, but maybe they are ready to run now.
UUUU – UUUU looks set up to run too, with good volume coming in. Again, these are choppy & tough to hold at times.
NIO – This was in yesterdays report. I thought that it might stall at the 50sma, and a pull back would be another opportunity to buy…
NIO – It is just breaking out. It may just run from here, that is a nice base and this traded at $10 in March.
TEUM – I grabbed this chart of TEUM yesterday ( It reminds me of OSTK). It looked ready to run, so I mentioned that in the comments. I compared what I was seeing to OSTK.
TEUM – It ended the day by breaking that 200sma & closing up 10+%. This may just keep running, it can still be bought here with a ‘reasonable’ stop.
YETI – I looked at this chart and it has run from $13 to $36 this year, then dropped and now is running for the highs again ( Cup). It was a buy at the 50sma, but still could be bought. Now that we have that story out of the way…
YETI – Now look at that run from $13 to $36 . Please think about your Miners as being in a similar bull run. People get bored & want to sell when they go sideways for a week or so, but on this run from $13 to $36, there were WEEKS OF SIDEWAYS CHOP too. Look at January, and Feb, and March, and April. Each month saw weeks of chop after each quick run higher, but when the run is looked at in hindsight, I hear people say, ” I would have rode that the whole way up!” We’ll see 🙂 .
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AMD – It is very similar with AMD. I have recommended AMD for Months, but it is hard to buy & hold, even though it doubled since January. Why is it hard to Buy & Hold? Bulls are choppy, boring at times, & hard to ride. Miners will be the same.
GNC – This is a nice break out from a base too, right through the 50sma. It is a buy here if it doesn’t gap up. If it drops to the magenta line, that’s even better.
KNDI – This looks to be progressing out of a base too.
SPOT – This is a huge consolidation ( 4 or 5 months), but it may be ready to go since it is at the apex of a bull flag. On this one I’d wait for the break out, because…
SPOT – The bigger picture would have the 2nd leg match the first leg, IF IT RUNS. Another long sideways choppy consolidation could happen too, if the General Markets stall out.
When you look at this chart of SNAP, we would wish that we owned it for the last 7 months and just bought it for the ride, right? $5 to $15. Well, I did post charts all the way higher, but that choppiness that looks like nothing now stopped a few out. Lets review a few of the charts that I posted in my reports…
SNAP – Looks like another nice long easy Bull Run. Your Miners may do this over the next 8 months.
Can you hold on? …
SNAP – This was a nice base with volume increasing…
SNAP – In Feb, I was hoping for a gap fill & another good entry, but that was a ‘break away gap’, and it did not fill. SNAP just pushed right through the 200sma from here…
SNAP – Look at FEB when it pushed through. It then got really really choppy in March and April and May, but another BUY SET UP formed.
SNAP – I posted that Buy in May before it broke out, and then posted a target 1 month ago here…
SNAP – And here we are today, but this was also Not an easy ride ‘real time’. When you look back, look at the reward as it reaches new recent highs at $15 probably on its way to $20. So again my point is– MINERS may be in a new bull run, but that doesn’t mean they just go straight up every day. It will take patience to win the race. Looking at SNAP each month. Though the hindsight seems like an easy ride as it tripled in price, there were WEEKS of sideways chop & even selling. A shake out at the 50 sma occurred too.
CRON – Some of the MJ STOCKS may be setting up, but it is taking time. They are choppy. CRON is riding the 200sma. TLRY has been posted as a buy a few times as a buy, and a few of the smaller ones are Popping too.
I’d say that CRON can be bought with a tight stop if you want to own it ( or wait for a break out). That last run from $10 to $24 took only 1 month. Recently CBDS, CNAB, POTN and others have had double digit Pops out of their bases.
