Big Picture Weekend Report – June 8th
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Let’s take a Bigger Picture View of our Markets…
TRANSPORTS – We have a reversal in the sell off, but you can see that recent March & April lows were broken on that drop. Usually lower lows is a bad sign, but we need to see if these markets will get any follow through upside to negate the bearishness. Is this bounce a recovery ( fed Rate Cut Promises) or just a bounce in a new downtrend?
SPX DAILY – This was impressive, and seems to be the reaction of the FED flipping from rate hikes, to neutral, and now to possible rate cuts to keep the economy stimulated. I have to say that this looks bullish, but the question then comes my way, “ Can Gold keep running if the General Markets run higher too?” I say ‘Yes’, and will show you why shortly.
SPX DAILY – The recent low on the SPX did not break the other lows. That first low looks to be one very long daily cycle. Was This also a very long 2nd daily cycle? I thought we had a clear DCL in May and then a failure followed, but with this quick reversal, we seem to have a dcl right there at the start of June. That 14 day drop seems too short of a period to be a whole daily cycle. Let me zoom in…
SPX DAILY – Do you see what I mean? May 13 looked like a dcl, but now this one does too. There have been only 14 days from May lows, but the Fed Rate Cut program seems to have pulled in the buyers. So ignoring cycles, I’ve mentioned that these lows could be bought with a tight stop and now I’d say that the ‘stop’ could be raised.
SPX WEEKLY SURGE– It was a big week and it looks very bullish at a glance, but look at this chart. I do have to point out that we also had a Big 2 week reversal on the last drop in October, but it only lasted 2 weeks and then rolled over. Be cautious, use stops if you are long.
I’m just going to say that I have seen some GOOD earnings and good charts, and I have also seem some Missed earnings and charts got ugly fast, so it has been short term bullish, but really a mixed bag at this point in the General Markets. I’ll keep watching this sector, but I personally am focused on Miners.
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WTIC WEEKLY – Oil flipped to a reversal at the 200 week ma. This is just too short to be an ICL and the last time it flipped here in November, the selling returned 3 weeks later too. I feel that Oil can bounce with the markets, but I just don’t know if they will continue higher yet.
USD #1 – I have been watching for this bearish rising wedge to form & play out all year long. This week we got the break down, let’s zoom in…
USD BEAR WEDGE – It looks to be breaking down, and Gold, Silver, and the Miners have reacted as expected- Bullishly!
USD BREAKDOWN – If the USD bounces to a back test in a week or so, Gold could dip to a dcl, but so far the US is just breaking the bottom and Gold has continued higher. Notice: Each peak was Golds ICL.
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GOLD, SILVER, $ MINERS
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GOLD BIG PICTURE – I wanted to show you that Recent runs from ICLs have been pretty good, but they have only been part of a larger consolidation (a large Base) in Gold. THIS ONE SHOULD BE PART OF A BREAK OUT, AND YOU DON’T WANT TO MISS IT IF I AM CORRECT. 🙂 Study this chart and then Let me show you more…
GOLD BIGGER PICTURE – THE BIG BASE. Look at the prior runs in this base. This next break out & run can run back to prior highs over time ( I have pointed out giant ‘Cup’ formations to my readers for years). That run could draw in Buyers QUICKLY. I want to be invested before that rally really rips higher, I do not want to be chasing. Read the chart.
To answer the question that quite a few have asked me, ” If the rate Cuts do help push the markets higher, doesn’t Gold drop when markets move higher? CAN GOLD run higher if the Markets run higher?“
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NOTICE THAT GOLD RAN HIGHER IN 2009 – In the 2008 crash, everything dropped to deep lows. Notice that GOLD bottomed in October and started to run higher for a few years. So GOLD RAN HIGHER IN 2009.
SPX RAN HIGHER IN 2009 WITH GOLD – SPX BOTTOMED in March 2009 & RAN HIGHER IN 2009 too. So we had the SPX running higher with Gold also running higher in 2009 & 2010.
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CONCLUSION : I AM NOT WORRIED ABOUT WHETHER OR NOT THE SPX RECOVERS DUE TO RATE CUTS. THIS GOLDEN BASE IS A BIG DEAL IF IT BREAKS OUT 🙂
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WHAT ABOUT SILVER?
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SILVER -As of Thursday, I wrote that Silver has been breaking out from the apex of a bullish wedge, battling with the 50 & 200sma, so this looked ‘good’,and …
SILVER – Friday it broke free, so now this looks ‘Very Good‘, however…
SILVER – THIS LOOKS EXCELLENT! Step back and there is a much bigger accomplishment in the works. This is just the last 2 ICLs that I have noted, and you an see that this week has been good progress as a break out, but this HAS MUCH HIGHER TO GO. I have been saying, “You want to own a couple of Silver Miners, they will do well over time”. I thoroughly believe that. Wait- there is more…
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SILVER – This is really an even Bigger Bull Wedge forming. The upside potential is excellent, AND THERE IS EVEN MORE TO SILVERS SET UP! …
SILVER – There is even a BIGGER PICTURE VIEW that looks like a BASE is completing after Silvers parabolic run popped. This gives it the ability to run again, and gains could be incredible.
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So when you see this SILVER CHART, your mind should be thinking WooHoo 
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I have discussed the MINERS A LOT in past reports,
so this will be a progress report 
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I gave 4 possible scenarios in the last 2 reports, to prepare you for the possibilities. Miners look very good here, and I felt the need to write up a little ‘lesson’ for my readers at the end of this report, so you can look for that. Let’s look at Miners…
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GDX – I POSTED THESE 2 CHARTS IN MARCH…A DROP to ‘2’ & THEN A RALLY
GDX – We dropped to ‘2’ and This is playing out exactly as I had hoped so far. Notice please, that it is NOT near overbought on the weekly stochastics, and there is plenty of good upside in this chart. I have been saying that You want to own either GDX or GDXJ, or a basket of your own hand picked Miners before this gets too far ahead of us. ( JNUG , NUGT optional) . This is breaking higher as expected. 
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It was a good week for the Miners and we should be able to look forward to a nice run out of the ICL. Yes, there could be pull backs and dips, but the lesson below was written to help give us a Bullish perspective on that. Enjoy and most of all, Enjoy your weekend!
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~ALEX
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A LESSON TO HELP MY READERS FOR THE CURRENT ICL
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I posted this chart from June 6 and you can see that GDX has moved straight up. I have already had readers tell me, ” I sold everything for good profit, because its extended and I don’t want to give gains back on a gap fill. Where do you think I should get back in?” Well, that kind of goes against what I have been saying, so we won’t know where the next buy opportunity is until it presents itself. I will explain this further.
I will NEVER say that you shouldn’t lock in some gains. That is often very rewarding for the Mind, but this is not time to SELL EVERYTHING and wait for a dip. This may help you to see that.
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GDX – Look at these Dips in the Bull Run. Anyone selling ‘Everything” early in the run, was NOT able to get back in. These can be straight up moves , leaving many behind. The dips , even DCLs, were Mild.
Do you recall the 4 GDXJ possible paths in the last 2 reports? That means that this could pull back or run away. I DID post these as 2 of the possibilities. #4 would lock out anyone selling ‘everything’.
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GDXJ #3 – We could see a repeat of that small flag ( this time to the 50sma), one similar to the Feb dip. I can see this happening, but so far Buyers keep stepping in. UPDATE: We are now even higher since I wrote this .
Word for word I wrote:
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GDXJ #4 – So the ‘lock out’ runaway move is not out of the question, and that is why I have been saying that you should own a few Miners at least, and buy the dips when possible. This forms a CUP, and a handle can be the dcl.
GDX Now #1– My advice is not to get too hung up on ‘Cycle count’ and DCLs, because some can be quite Mild. Don’t view this as looking over-extended at this point, because some then sell out and get left behind. Look at the SEPT ICL. Where was the first DCL out of the lows? Does it really matter? If you sold, where would you get back in? Higher in most cases. If you were in it for the long run, holding something all the way through worked out best… Because…
GDX Now #2– It got choppy, but the run was about 6 months long and ended up being quite Bullish. THAT SAID, I expect this current run to be VERY BULLISH if it plays out as I expect…
GDX 2008 ICL – Looking back at the run in 2008, it had a few early dips, but was that a good reason to sell & try to get back in at a dcl? Not really, and CERTAINLY NOT SELLING EVERYTHING. I will NEVER say that someone shouldn’t lock in gains. Yes, Lock in some profits if you want, but selling everything here could be the wrong move. Even if we do get a dip to a dcl, you should Own SOMETHING in this area- Bulls surprise to the upside.
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END OF LESSON REVIEW … Where would You have re-entered if you sold early in the first daily cycle on these past bull runs? Look at maybe the 2nd Purple arrow off of the lows – it kept running and never looked back?? My advice has been to try to hold on to at least some small basket of Miners or GDX / GDXJ position.
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GOLD VS AUSSIE DOLLAR – I posted this chart in the live trading area Friday, this is Bullish and is happening in other currencies too. GOLD is out-performing here.
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USAS – This Silver stock is riding at the 200sma, so it could be a good place to add to current position before a possible break out. or…
USAS – You could just wait for this base to break out & add with confirmation.
