Thursday April 17th
Friday is a holiday and the markets are closed, so today is the last trading day of the week. Earlier this week I had mentioned cycle counts and a possible bearish rising wedge, so ‘tighten stops and stay alert’ was the thought for the General Markets at that time, but now? It may be time to consider ‘Safety First’. Let me explain…
.
XBI #1 – This was the XBI ( A Biotech ETF) Tuesday. It landed on the 50sma and also had the support of the 200sma below it.
XBI #2 – This was the XBI on Wednesday, the very next day. Look at that volume and how easily it sliced right through both moving averages. If that is some kind of warning of what might be coming in the rest of the markets, we better be listening.
IBB – I posted this in the live trading area in the afternoon, as a warning not to buy EYES or any other biotech picks, but I am wondering if Tech and other General Markets Picks should be closed out before the long holiday weekend too. This really did come out of nowhere, it just crashed down without warning.
SPX – So the SPX gapped open and closed lower. This is a bearish engulfing, I would have closed a long UPRO or TQQQ position. I expect this to sell off, even if it bounces Thursday.
IWM – This is also a bearish engulfing, and they are followed by selling. This is overbought , the RSI is turning down, and I wouldnt trust the 50 & 200sma after what we saw with Biotech. Safety first?
VIX- And the vix even broke below the lows & reversed. This is telling us that things are going to get volatile in the markets.
The General Markets are getting late in their daily cycle, and they could have climbed a little higher for a few day, but now that we see bearish wedges with bearish engulfing, and the Biotech break down? Just having a stop in place may not be protection enough. A Monday Gap down could jump your stop and run away lower . I would consider closing some (or all) long positions in these areas. I do still see a bullish sector or two, and will discuss it below.
.
GOLD – Gold is on day 29 and it has broken below the recent lows. Wednesday saw minimal selling in Gold, but I would expect more of a sell down into the day 30+ count.
SILVER – Silver did not sell down further Tuesday or Wednesday. Time will tell if it has further to go.
GDX – Miners did sell off further, but bounced a little into the close. If they bounce on Thursday, it doesn’t mean that the selling is over. Remember that reversal on Monday?
GDXJ – GDXJ has made it to the 200sma
.
I do NOT like what happened in Biotech as it approached the 50 & 200sma. That was heavy volume selling out of nowhere. Today is the last day of the week for the markets and I may close some positions simply to wait and see what happens next week. Bearish wedges and bearish engulfing candles, along with a daily cycle that is getting late is a good enough reason for ‘safety first’. There is always another trade, some may even go short. I do see at least 1 or 2 areas that acted bullishly, so I will discuss that below. That way I can still say…
.
Enjoy your Thursday trading!
.
~ALEX
.
ACB – Yesterdays report had the following …
ACB – ACB did break the downtrend and is above the 10sma. This also was up about 20 cents in after hrs and I still like the set up. Many in this sector perked up, so let’s take a look.
HEXO #1 -I immediately noticed that HEXO had good volume and gapped open, so when it dropped to fill the gap & reversed, I bought it and posted that in the comments section. I posted this later when I was questioned as to what I saw bullish about HEXO. By then it broke the down trend and the volume was as big as the prior days in only 2 hrs.
HEXO #2 – It closed up about 12% and continued higher in after hrs to $7.15. Look at that volume, and this is still oversold.
,
I have seen this sector ignore the General markets drop, so I am going to hold my HEXO into the 3 day weekend if it continues to act correctly Thursday. In fact, the markets rolled over Wednesday with bearish engulfing candles and many MJ stocks stayed higher, as you will see. SO ARE THERE ANY OTHERS IN THIS SECTOR ACTING BULLISHLY?
.
ACRGF – This one did have a bullish 9% pop at the 50sma. It has been going sideways for a long time, but that run in December was $12 to $30! The March run was $16 to $26, so when it runs, it can really run. CGC is trying to buy this company out, and it popped on the news that CGC is buying ‘the rights’ to buy them later, if the US legalizes MJ on the Federal level.
CGC – This was actually up to $46 in after hrs after news came out that it is in talks to buy Acreage Holdings, and may be buying the rights to buy it when it becomes legal to do so ( Federal legalization in the US). If those after hour prices hold, it should open above the 50sma ( I’d hate the gap though).
CURLF – After reversing at the 50sma, it had another 10% follow through day, though the General Markets rolled over.
CWBHF – Also two 8% days higher in a row, and this is still very oversold.
CRLBF – I’ve been watching this one for a while, and even though it looks choppy, notice that it has been a fairly steady climb higher since $4 in December. In fact, this has tripled.
CTST – CANN Trust may be doing a shake out at the 200sma, and trying to regain that an the 10sma. Read the chart.
MMNFF– Up 6% in a long base, now pushing on the 50sma. Ready to go?
There are others, so this may help you to see that this sector seems to have pulled back sharply, but may now be stabilizing and can put in another run higher. Some of these are still oversold and near low risk entry points, like ACB , CTST, ACRGF, MMNFF, etc .
,
The other sector that remains bullishly aligned is Bitcoin and some Blockchain stocks that we have been discussing.
Even though this is considered to be a bullishly rising consolidation, it is also a very loose, choppy consolidation with volume dying down. It really could use a good push higher, but so far it is holding up after that strong April ramp higher.
