Tuesday March 12th
THERE WAS A NICE MOVE HIGHER ON MONDAY AFTER THE REVERSAL FRIDAY, SO I WANT TO DISCUSS THAT. SOME OF MY EXPECTATIONS WERE NOT MET, AND THEY MAY NOT BE MET IMMEDIATELY. LET’S DISCUSS WHY I AM SAYING THAT…
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SPX FRIDAY’s THINKING – We sold off all last week. I honestly thought we would tag the 50sma, so I drew this showing that Fridays reversal might just be a tag the 10sma and drop again. We were ‘t oversold, and it is normal to drop to the 50sma, so I was pointing out that some prior reversals were short lived (magenta arrows).
SPX – Monday the SPX closed back above the 10 sma & the RSI curled up from the 50% line. I have to respect that and view it as a possible DCL right there. It would be a buy with a tight stop in that case. I was watching a good number of ‘stocks’, and many DID drop to their 50 sma and reversed, so this may be all of the sell off for now.
SPX – In the past and in a variety of different markets, I at times will also use the 13 & 34 sma. I find that some of the MJ stocks often follow these, for example, so I decided to look at the SPX with a 34 sma.
SPX – This makes sense, since I had drawn a rising wedge, and they often break down and form an up channel.
NASDAQ – The NASDAQ also closed above the 10 sma too, after reversing off of the 34 sma.
TRAN – The Tran was leading the markets lower, and broke higher Monday too, but notice this…
TRAN – The TRAN actually DID tag the 50sma, became oversold, and now reversed higher. This looks like a DCL, right?
The RUT ( & IWM) are oversold and just about tagged the 50sma too, so I think we are looking at a dcl here. HOW STRONG THIS NEXT RUN WILL BE REMAINS TO BE SEEN, but you can buy it with a stop.
TRAN WEEKLY – The weekly may have formed an inverse H&S. Notice that in the bull run, the TRAN ran along ABOVE of the Green 50 week ma line. Now it is struggling at that line, so let’s see if it can finally regain that 50 week MA or not near $10525.
Finally, I have discussed the VIX (Volatility)- I expected the VIX to run to oversold, but it crashed down Monday. The VIX runs the opposite of the markets.
WE’LL SEE IF THERE IS ANY FOLLOW THROUGH TUESDAY.
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FROM THE WEEKEND REPORT:
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GOLD DAILY – Gold formed a swing low with a day 29 low – read the chart. The RSI dropped all the way to 30, the Stochasics was pinned at about ‘6’ Thursday, & the MACD opened wide, causing me to think that this day 29 low will be it.
GOLD MONDAY – Gold still did not close above the 10 sma or trend line ( or 50 sma) yet, to confirm a DCL in place. It is oversold, we have the reversal, and the GDX has confirmed a swing low, so I still assume that GOLD will pop higher soon too. This is pushing on resistance.
SILVER – Silver was rejected at the 10 sma Monday too. It is also oversold.
GDX – GDX closed above the 10sma & the trend line Friday. As Miners sold off on Monday, the GDX sold off to that 10sma, and bounced off of it. This looks to be day 5 for GDX. It remains oversold.
GDX – The former Channel ( purple) that I was using for the Miners seems to be getting steeper in the incline with the recent bullishness, so I re-drew it with a new channel (blue) . We’ll see if GDX can get to the top of the channel or not.
Please keep this in mind. Miners can make a new high and still become Left Translated. A new high on day 11 for example, could then roll over and drop to day 30. That would be left translated. ALSO – it may be helpful to review what I wrote about the MINERS in the weekend report.
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It looks like the Friday reversals could have follow through upside, since the General Markets closed above the 10sma. We only had a 1 week sell off in the General Markets, but some stocks pulled back quickly or sharply, and then reversed. They may be ready to go higher again. Gold does not have a confirmed Swing Low (DCL), but GDX & GDXJ seem to, so buying with a TIGHT STOP under recent lows may be a trade that you want to take, or you may wish to wait for a deeper sell off. I am going to discuss some trade ideas below, for those that want a few trade ideas.
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Enjoy your Tuesday trading.
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~ALEX
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GPL – I saw GPL move up 5% when most other Miners were up 1-2% or even red, and Gold & Silver were down. It had heavy volume, and I jumped in, simply because we had a dcl in GDX & GDXJ, and some Miners seem to be acting on their own strength. I have mentioned this as an expectation of mine with Silver Miners. If this pull flags, it could become a buy again, because…
GPL – Stepping back, GPL WEEKLY actually broke out with that move.This now looks like a break down and recovery in GPL. I will try to hold this as a buy & hold, like my AG, unless it really breaks down later. Unfortunately, that trend line could get back tested.
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SHIPPER ARE TAKING OFF AGAIN
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GLBS was up over 100% Monday, and last week a reader here ” The’HUN’ pointed out the volume surge in NM. I like Low bases and price spikes with volume, because they offer low risk entries and often signal that a break out is coming. the set up on several , so let’s take a quick look.
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NM – It popped over the 10sma Friday, so I bought it with The Hun, just to see if it would have follow through. There are others doing this too, and it is bullish. NM closed up 20%, pushing on the 50sma, but it was up as high as 60% in after hrs. Let’s see what happens today and why not take a look at a few others…
PXS – PXS also had a price & pop in volume Friday , so I watched it Monday and it really took off into the close ( 40%). I did not buy this one, but after this action , I looked up a few others.
SALT – This small move was a 10% pop, and it could lead to follow through. I would say that it is a buy with a stop at those shake out lows OR wait for a break of the blue line. This may do well, but this isn’t my favorite one…
DCIX – This was my next best looking Shipper. I bought this after seeing NM, GLBS ,and PXS, explosive moves near the close. It has the volume spikes and price pops in a base like consolidation. I will QUICKLY add if it starts running higher Tuesday.
TK – I had this in my reports in feb when it broke the 50sma. TK reversed right at a trend line & 50 sma. If it pushes back above the 50sma Tuesday or Wednesday, that could be a buy too. Shippers run fast, DO NOT just jump into extended ones, unless you know what you are doing as a day trader. It is always best to buy them near support with a stop as they begin to break higher and try to be patient if they go sideways. EXIT if they break down.
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COMPANIES IN THE BIOTECH / PHARMA still look good , and many are actually forming nice long term charts too.
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ZIOP– I recommended ZIOP bouncing off of that 20sma here on March 5th .
ZIOP #1 – It ‘Stalled’ with the markets selling down, but looks ready to go again. This hit new highs Monday, and earnings were already released last week. This is a buy & looks ready to go.
ZIOP #2 – The Bigger picture shows that it doubled since January, and may be moving out of a long base.
EDIT – I discussed EDIT, CRSP, NTLA, QURE, etc. recently as bullish set ups in this special ‘Gene therapy’ sector. Look how EDIT reversed at the 50sma with a bull flag. This was and is a buy, in my opinion. Low risk with a stop under the 50sma. It doesn’t look like much, but that was already a $19-$25 Move.
NTLA – I posted NTLA as a buy breaking out near $14 on Feb 25. I bought it.
NTLA – After a break out & move higher, this just crawled along the 10sma as the markets sold off, so it remains bullish. This has excellent upside potential.
LJPC – I bought this on the break out too, and I still own this. I mentioned then that it may bull flag before taking off again, and it seems to be doing that. The markets sold off and this just flagged along the 50sma, so I am hoping for follow through, with excellent upside potential here too. This has been a ‘buy with a stop’ too.
TENX – I love this base. I sold some on the BIG burst higher and have been riding the rest. I was thinking of adding if this pull back to the 8 ema / 10sma and reverses. That could be the next buy point.
SIEN – I have not pointed this one out yet, until I thought it might be ready. I think it might be ready to pop above that 50sma. This could have big gains once it gets going, they develop and commercializing plastic surgery implantable devices . This chart shows the potential, but let me zoom in…
SIEN – This looks ready to break higher soon. This is a base at $10 – $11, but I would buy this here with those volume surges on the upside.
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METALS : USD STRENGTH MAY HAVE PULLED THEM DOWN
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CLF – Some of the metals sold off rapidly, likely as the USD turned bullish and markets sold down. They look to possibly be ready to start moving higher again. CLF did a 50% pull back (normal) to the 50sma (Normal). It is oversold, so this could be bought moving back above the 50sma with a TIGHT STOP under these lows.
AKS – Similar set up here with AKS. It is oversold and the 50sma is now curling upward, so this sector seems to be slowly progressing, but it does get caught up in the sell offs when they come.
CLD – This volume pop Monday as it crawls along the 50sma may be the start of a climb higher. Buy a break higher with a TIGHT STOP.
SID – This is extended and NOT a buy, I just wanted to show that they weren’t all affected by the USD surge.
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Some of the Chinese Stocks that I mentioned in prior reports also look very good. I’v been tracking & trading ( & mentioned many here) VIPS, SOHU, SOGO, HUYA, IO, BIDU, YY, QD, QTT, YELP, YNDX, HMI, etc etc .
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VIPS – Vips was a buy down at $5, and it back tested the 50sma and moved higher again. It is chopping above the 50sma , but still remains bullish in the big picture. It looks ready to run again with Mondays reversal after a break out & back test.
YY – Longer term, some of these have a lot of potential if the markets do not turn to bear markets in 2019.
ENJOY YOUR TUESDAY TRADING , AND IF YOU WANT TO, You can watch my last trade yesterday. We’ll call it…
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WATCH ME CRASH & BURN
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SEEL – SEEL RAN FROM $1+ to $7+ in 4 days! It then crashed to the 9 ema and started to reverse. I took a small GAMBLE POSITION under $3 . JUST A VERY SMALL POSITION , a trade/ experiment. Then I captured this chart.
SEEL – It then shot up into the close right after I captured that chart.
DO NOT FOLLOW ME. This is a day trade/ experiment, I am not buying & holding this and it could easily drop to $2 to fly to $4, I just bought the reversal at the 9 ema as a matter of technical analysis with a stop there.
