March 15th – Watch For ‘Cracks’
Financial market movements can be erratic on days when options and futures contracts expire, especially on Triple Witching Friday. Today is that day. Along with that, I want to point out a couple of ‘Cracks’ that may be appearing in various parts of the Markets. When cracks begin to show up, it is good to take note and use a little more caution, because the strength of what is supporting things may give way. Let’s take a look…
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SPX – The SPX is at resistance, as mentioned in prior reports. I also said that it could get choppy from here…
VIX – Especially if the VIX bounces. It is at the lows again and it does look set up to bounce soon, so the markets could remain a bit choppy.
The weekend report will cover the Big Picture possibilities. I am seeing a mixture of results with the earnings reports. Some companies are doing well, others are dropping on bad earnings. We have a mix at this point, so we’ll just have to wait and see what happens to the main indexes – The SPX, NASDAQ, DJIA, RUT, TRAN, etc over time.
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WTIC – Oil is acting as expected so far, a tag of the 200sma seems likely.
GOLD – Her’s a pretty big Crack in the ice. Gold just ‘confirmed’ a swing low and crashed down after a day 4 peak. That doesn’t mean that this IS the peak, but it was a pretty good warning to those that think that Gold is too strong to pull back into an ICL. Gold is choppy and lost the 50sma again, so next we’ll see what happens on Triple Witching Friday.
SILVER – This is taken from yesterdays report…
SILVER – Silver really showing that the cracks can appear out of nowhere. It couldn’t regain the 50sma, and slammed down below the 200sma. I am out of this sector, neither long nor short at this point.
GDX – Yesterday I pointed out that I didn’t like the weak volume DOJI candle on a day when Gold was up $12.
GDX dropped Thursday. It has a day 7 ‘peak’ so far, but we’ll have to wait & see if the highs of this run are in (The H&S that I have been discussing) , or can it bounce again to a new peak. That MACD is weak , so far.
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Triple Witching can get triple tricky at times. The last hour of trading is said to be quite choppy or difficult to trade, so it may be a day to just watch how things play out. I still have several open positions like DQ, OAS, LJPC, DCIX, IDRA, HEXO, etc- Wednesday was a great day, Thursday closed as a red day for me. We’ll see what Friday has in store.
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Enjoy your Friday trading!
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~ALEX
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PXS – The Shippers have been Popping & running, you can look at charts of GLBS, PXS, NM for examples. We got a very nice POP in NM so far, and PXS here popped and may be slowly setting up bullishly again. This is not a ‘buy’, it is an example of shippers popping, because …
DCIX – I still own DCIX and it dropped on very light volume Thursday, bounced off of support, and remains o.k. at this point.
TK – I mentioned this one on the 50 sma, and it is still just slowly climbing from the entry point. It could even still be bought here, in my opinion, since it is acting correctly above the 50sma.
OSP – This ‘shipper’ didn’t look like it was going to pop 2 days ago when I looked at it, so I didn’t mention it. Earnings was released a week ago and it didn’t look very good, dropping a little each day below the 50sma. Suddenly, it just broke out Thursday, so the sector still seems to have life in it.
DQ #1 – DQ landed on the 50sma and reversed after releasing earnings Wednesday. I bought this here, because …
DQ #2 – I really like the risk / reward on this long term chart as a base-building consolidation. I like it if it stays above the 50sma.
HEXO #1– HEXO broke out, and I captured this after almost 1 hr of trading. Volume was huge and it looked to be doing a gap fill. I took a position and I’d like to see it stay above the 10sma & continue higher. A drop to the 50sma is POSSIBLE, but it already broke out in January & did a back test last week, so it doesn’t have to, and…
HEXO #2 – After 2 months of consolidation, this could make a second run ( Target $8ish). Breaking to all time highs would be great, but let’s take it 1 step at a time.
YESTERDAYs REPORT:
IDRA – It just barley closed above that 50sma, but I’ll take it as progress and I’m hoping for that push higher soon.
XENE – This was a BUY at the 50sma support at the end of February…
XENE – However the 200 sma was overhead and we haven’t been able to break & close above that. This attempt last week fell back below that 200 sma …
XENE – Yesterday, we closed above it 🙂 After crawling along that 200 for 2 weeks, we have a break out.
RIG – This is a long consolidation and these can lead to a nice run if it gets going. This would be a low risk entry. I like RIG, MRO, & VLO set ups right now.
GH – I just wanted to show this one again. I owned this in the base and sold WAY – TO – EARLY. It hit $100+ Thursday. If you see price in a nice long base and it breaks out in a bullish sector with no resistance overhead…. STAY ON BOARD. I am still watching for TWST.
UEC – URANIUM STOCKS started perking up and they all have ‘bases’ froming. One of these times, they will run up and break out as shown here. Volume increased and they look like a buy ( At least for a short term move higher). UEC Closed above the 50sma and...
DNN – So did DNN, over both the 50 & 200sma. See also NXE, CCJ, UUUU
URG #1 – URG is now above both the 50 & 200sma, so it looks like it has no resistance .
URG WEEKLY #2 – The churning & base building has been frustrating. We have traded these a few times, thinking that maybe it was time for them to break & run, but the base building continued. When it does break and run, the gains will be good.
AND FINALLY: Do I recommend this next trade for everyone? No, maybe just ‘traders’ in front of their screens daily. It has risks, but if it is an Island Bottom, it can leave that bottom behind. Let me explain…
KPTI – Is up $1.29 at $5.69 in AH, this GAP OPEN could leave behind what would be an ISLAND BOTTOM. The CRASH in Feb came when the FDA said, “Given the limited efficacy and significant toxicity demonstrated, it is unclear whether treatment with selinexor-dexamethasone provides a clinically meaningful benefit that outweighs the risks of treatment,” . Down crashed the stock. The new GAP higher today will be from the FDA extending their review of Selinexor – The previously disclosed deadline date of April 6, 2019 (PDUFA) has been extended by three months to July 6, 2019. Chartfreak says, If you trade this, GET OUT BEFORE JULY 6 🙂
