WEDNESDAY FEB 27th
The Markets themselves have not changed a lot since yesterdays report, but the trading has remained very good, so I want to discuss a little of both. Also keep in mind that Wednesday is Oil inventory day, and I think that may clear up Oils intentions. Let’s take a look…
VIX – I want to start with the VIX. This makes me think that the markets are about to drop soon. ‘Volatility’ has been very mild in the market climb higher. This looks like we are about to see some volatility.
SPX – The SPX didn’t change much, but it almost looks like a bearish rising wedge that would break down as the Vix Pops. If you are long, a trailing stop loosely below the 10sma has worked out well, but I am feeling stronger that a drop and not a pop is coming. Maybe even a drop to the 50sma.
WTIC #1- Today is the OIL inventory report, which usually moves Oil. I felt that this FEB 11 dip was a day 31 dcl (blue arrow) , since the stochastics got oversold & the XOP dropped sharply, but I have expected more of a straight up run to the 200sma, and we stalled Monday with a drop to the 10sma.
WTIC #2 same chart-
Mondays dip was rather big, so I am watching OIL on this Oil Inventory day. It is possible that we are on day 41 of one long daily cycle, but the dip in the XOP, XLE had me thinking day 31 was the dcl. If a dcl is coming now , that lower trend line will be broken on a drop to the dcl, but I wouldn’t expect the 50sma to break. In other words, OIL is a bit choppy, but lets look at Oil / Energy stocks…
XLE – The XOP, XLE, OIH are still not acting like OIL dropped on Monday, and they are holding up. You can see why I thought the dcl was day 31 with that tag of the 50sma & trend line break. We’ll see what that inventory report does.
USD – The USD dropped sharply Tuesday, but GOLD did not rally. That support line may be where the USD is going, but I’m honestly not expecting much of a Gold bounce.
GOLD #1- Here we see how Gold has been climbing higher. It runs up, consolidates, runs up, consolidates, etc.
GOLD #2 – The MACD stopped climbing with it, so it seems that ‘momentum’ is dying. I’m expecting a pull back in Gold, but so far the pull backs have been mild…
If the USD finds support at the blue line and then turns higher, maybe that is when GOLD will drop deeper. That means that as the USD drops here, Gold COULD Pop or bounce around, but I don’t expect a rally.
So basically I am just going to repeat what I have been saying: I expect a pull back in Gold. Individual Miners, especially Silver stocks, may still do their own thing and can move higher on their own, similar to what we have seen with KL, AU, etc., so…
.
AG & EXK broke higher on earnings above the 200sma. I pointed out the crawl or bull flag below the Red Line as it formed, and that was a buy with a stop that I said I bought. There has been no reason not to own this or EXK after earnings at this point.
SIDE NOTE: I am a regular trader with rules that I personally follow for myself. I go in heavy at support with confidence, and I sell partial or completely out at a target. This has fulfilled the initial a-b = c-d target, so I sell 1/2, but it still should form a large CUP over time, seen on the chart above. As a ‘Trader’, I might sell some and buy an MJ stock at support or something like that, but so far AG & EXK are acting correctly.
GDX – We got a drop, a gap fill, and then a reversal. This can bounce if the USD drops to the blue line, but the MACD also looks to be weakening here so far, since the last peak.
GDX -A bounce can become a H&S, but if you bought the reversal, that is fine, use a stop at the low of the day and see what you get.
.
I have discussed all kinds of trades in recent reports, from Biotech yesterday, to Metals & Miners, Oil & Shippers, Tech Stocks, Chinese Tech, and MJ stocks. Many trades are playing out bullishly from TGB, TK, NIO, ACB, TGODF, CDE, EXK, HUYA, IO, JKS, etc, much of the trading has been good, especially since the January lows – I will discuss a few below.
.
Watch the OIL inventory report this morning to see which was Oil may want to go, and enjoy your Wednesday trading!
.
~ALEX
.
TGB REMINDER BY REQUEST – I was asked where to sell TGB, so this was my original Bullish thought after moving off of support. A target and I thought that it might crawl along the 200 and break out, but…
TGB – It is playing out well, but if you just want to sell all of it at the 200sma, that is fine. That 80 cent area is my first target as an a-b = c-d also. I will say that I don’t like to see volume drop on the way up, and I usually sell EVERYTHING if I hit my target on light volume. My experience is : It can’t break through if buyers are drying up.
AKS – Some Metals trades have ‘stalled’ a bit, but they are bullishly rising over time, and remain above the 50sma. I still expect that these can return to former highs forming a giant cup like pattern.
CENX – With the earnings release behind us, and CENX at support, it could be bought here, right? It looks like a buy 7 hold with patience. This was a big run, and I expect more upside. I also see an inverse H&S right here.
MJ STOCKS STARTED TO COME ALIVE EVEN MORE
.
Let’s take a look…
.
ACB – ACB reached oversold. Yesterday I mentioned buying this reversal and the magenta line is support. These MJ stocks make GREAT gains, better than Miners at times, so I added and added again.
ACB – We got 6% follow through with volume ( up 8 % if you include after hrs) and this looks very good. I sold NETE and added to ACB Again. Read that chart to understand why. It is no longer sitting on support, but this can still be bought here risk / reward wise. It is also still much closer to oversold than overbought.
TGODF- From yesterday…
TGODF- I see 6% follow through, increasing volume, and plenty of upside potential, so I added again. Use a stop under support, but raise it on the way higher.
CGC – CGC has consolidated recent gains for over 1 month and is now oversold & reversed on support. This sector is setting up with the look that it wants to run higher again, but I’d like to see a break out above the down trend line here for confirmation. This could run back to $60+, so think about that… $25 to $60+ in 2 months, and many do not ‘see’ the MJ trades as rewarding yet.
CRON and APHA also look good, with reversals above the 10sma this week.
APHA – A 1 month consolidation after a $4 to $11 Run (wow), I’d like to see APHA RSI turn up more with price over time.
,
THCBF – A penny MJ stock. I have been watching THCBF daily with this consolidation. It almost tripled last December, so when it breaks, it could put on quick %-Gains . I hope to buy it.
TLRY – TILRAY dropped right down to the lower trend line, I thought that I was going to get stopped out, and then it turned higher with the rest of the sector. It pulled back a little into the close, and I would say that this is a buy, but I would like to see more action out of this before I add. CGC, CRON, ACB, etc were up 6-8%. TLRY was up 2% at the close.
IMLFF – I just wanted to show this perfect reversal at support to add to the bullishness of many of these stocks. And though this was excellent…
PURA – This was the Winner, up 60%. It’not a buy here, no need to chase and risk it falling back on you, but I just wanted to show the potential that a lot of these have. This was crawling under the 50sma consolidating after a strong run last October.
BIOTECH TRADES :
.
OPHT – Don’t forget the OPHT, NTLA, XENE trade set ups. They still look good, this is still a buy.
XENE – PHARMA – Still a buy and looking good.
The Feb 8th chart of MGTI shows the potential in the big picture if the Blockchain sector heats up again. I already mentioned that I bought this & own it. Let’s zoom in to where it is now…
MGTI ( Blockchain) has a very interesting set up forming. That looks like a bullish flat topped wedge. It has already quadrupled off of this bottom. It can be bought for just a quick trade, but it is a penny stock, hard to get in & out of. I have to recommend caution and maybe just a small position.
Finally, 3 people told me that they bought this and hung on. Congrats and it can continue higher over time. = )
