Wed Feb 13 – Like watching Paint Dry
When the markets get later on in there cycle counts and start to get a little choppy, it can be boring and even a little tricky. You’ll see what I mean by tricky when we cover the general markets and Oil.
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SPX #1 – The SPX has hit a new high as it pushed against the 200 sma Tuesday after a brief pullback. Does that change anything? …
SPX #2 Feb 5th – A while back I had mentioned that in the past that we saw false break outs at the 200 sma before, so that could happen again. So breaking through that 200 sma doesn’t really change anything, but I’ll show you why it gets a little tricky shortly.
NASDAQ – The NASDAQ also has a new high and it is still under the 200sma , but here is something interesting…
DJIA #1 – The DJIA Broke out above the 200sma, back tested and then started higher again. The 200sma acted as support this time. The last 2 times that it broke above the 200sma, it then broke back down. That makes this appear a bit more bullish, but that is also probably because we are early in the Intermediate Cycle and the other break outs dropped into a dcl.
DJIA SAME CHART: Now when I draw a channel, it looks bullish , and it looks like that MIGHT have been a dcl. WAS THAT A DCL? I very much doubt that it was, even though a trend line was broken and the price closed below the 10sma & recovered. The other Sectors do not look like a dcl. That does make it a bit tricky though, because the 200sma acted as support and price ran higher, so…
IF SOMEONE WANTED , they could buy with a stop under the 200sma, but at this point, I do not think that this was a dcl, and that does mean that I think this will pull back in the near future. How high it will go from here is the question.
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WTIC #1 – Oil has been churning sideways above the 50sma. It is on day 33 out of an ICL and bounced twice off of the 50sma.
WTIC #2 – Oil can simply remain choppy and perform sideways into the next dcl as shown, or…
WTIC #3 – It still may make that run higher and then pull back to a dcl. Using a stop under the 50sma is a protection if you are long Oil, but this is an area that has been like watching paint dry (Boring)..
XLE – Oil & Energy stocks look to be improving, but so far most of the gains were made in January, and this also has been a bit choppy. A stop at the 50sa here may also allow you to catch a run to the 200sma if that happens. I also pointed out several individual Oil Stocks.
BITCOIN UPDATE – I covered Bitcoins Pop the other day, in case it is getting ready to run from the base. So far it has not broken out, it is flagging along that trend line.
UUP – The USD rolled over, but is this the top? It is way too early for me to confidently make that assumption. It is a gap fill above the 8 ema so far for UUP. Looking back at the Octobers run, we saw plenty of these reversals on the way higher (blue arrows). Did Gold rally on the USD drop?
GOLD – Gold remains under the 10sma so far (around $1317), with what would make this a left translated daily cycle with a peak on day 8 if Gold doesn’t push higher from here.
GDX – Miners went Green during Tuesday trading, but they did close down again and they are also under their 10sma for the 2nd day in a row.
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I have posted some trade set ups, and then I mentioned that for some readers here, sitting in cash during choppy times can prove to be the best trade. Buying during choppy markets can give Mixed results, and I want to show that below today. As a trader, I have entered a few trades this week. I made great gains in December through February, but to be honest, I am in the red ( just for the week) with the trades taken last week & this week so far. I will show a few of those trades below, and you can see the truth to what I have said in the past, “Even with pretty good looking set ups , trades can fail to follow through or even fall apart under choppy conditions. “
So I just want to point out today that some trades are working out good, and others just aren’t. I’ll show that below as sort of a progress report. NOTE: TODAY IS THE OIL INVENTORY REPORT, so I am still watching the OAS, WTI, WLL, DNR, LGCY, LPI, CRK, etc trade set ups of Energy Stocks dancing around near the 50sma.
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If you are trading, enjoy your Wednesday trading,
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~ALEX
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HVBTF – I pointed this out as a block chain trade, and I said that I love this set up as it rides the 50sma. I didn’t own it on this pop, but I bought it the next day, and…
HVBTF – I am slightly in the green on this one, and I still like the set up. I like the volume & support of the 50sma.
CRK – I posted this chart yesterday, and it looks good right? I then bought it after the open and it started moving higher. This was $6.14 pushing the 50sma, I bought it just above $6.20 as it broke out…
CRK – I was going to add to my current position if it kept rising, but it couldn’t hold gains. I do still like it, but I am slightly in the red with this one too. This doesn’t look like a big move yesterday, right? It ran to almost $6.50 and then dropped & closed at $6.09. I am down about 15 cents / share. Not bad but if it drops further, I likely get stopped for a loss.
ACB – I saw this reversal AFTER THEIR Earnings release and decided to step in, and posted this chart within the first hour of trading.
ACB – Notice that it gapped down and then ran higher. Later when it almost hit $7.50 , I realized that it actually tagged the 200sma on that drop, so I was going to add to my position if it broke the blue trend line, and…
ACB – It then sold off as the day went on, and closed down at $7.17, a bit lower than where I bought it. I still own it, I still like it so far, but it is now also red and this sector has been a bit choppy recently.
CNTTF – CANNTRUST – I really like this chart & company, it has been a steady climber really, so I just bought this reversal, and this one I am actually green on (So far). I like the volume signature.
TGODF – I like the reversal in TGODF at the 50sma also , but I did not buy it. The sector has been choppy and weak and I want to see if that changes before getting too heavy here.
NETE – I pointed out Blockchains trades in the weekend report and this chart of NETE looked ready to break out, volume was coming in, and I liked it, so I boughta starter position. I would add on a break out, but…
NETE – It has had no follow through so far, so I am down a bit on this one too. No break out yet, but I am still in it so far.
So this has been an example of how even some pretty good looking set ups can lack follow through during choppy times of indecision. Don’t get me wrong, some of these set ups are moving higher, but in a choppy environment, there are some that won’t get going until we get some upside in the sectors themselves.
This was TK , for example, in yesterdays report. I thought that it looks like it may break out.
TK – It DID move higher, but still needs to break out
NGD – I posted this in yesterdays report, a Miner doing its own thing, flagging, and…
NGD – It pushed higher too. It has now tagged the 200sma. It will break out of pull back from here, and may offer a future buying opportunity , and..
CRMD – Yesterday I mentioned that the last time we saw a set up like this in CRMD, it started a run higher ( Red Boxes).
CRMD – BOOM! It actually pushed 24% higher!
