Wait Just A Minute! Fed Minutes Released
At 2 p.m. we had our F.O.M.C. Minutes released, and some things changed right away, so we’ll discuss that. Is it likely to be a short term knee jerk reaction that only lasted for the rest of Wednesday? Or does it look to be more of a medium term change, with days of similar action to follow. I almost think that the readers here already know the answer to that, but we will discuss it further.
SPX – Price is pinching tighter and this could be forming a short term bearish wedge if it doesn’t break out higher very soon.
QQQ – I am seeing a similar tight wedge on the QQQ, so this needs to break higher real soon, or it will drop (and these are usually short term bearish). Instead of recommending buying any stocks here, I think that we should expect a drop soon …
SQ – I would recommend watching the ones that did well and buy the dip. I expect a dcl is due in the General Markets. SQ ran from $50 to $78 for example, those were Great gains. Buy the dip? I’ll be watching CY, TSEM, MU, AMD, etc .
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WTIC – Oil is following through nicely and I think that it has a future date with the 200sma. Oil has moved above the resistance of the sideways consolidation to the left of the chart.
XOP – I still own GUSH and the XLE, OIH, and XOP continued higher. I still expect higher price here, but as usual, use & maybe even raise stops as it rises.
OAS – OAS, WTI, WLL, etc are Oil / Energy stocks that I usually trade near Oils lows. OAS still seems to be responding bullishly.
WLL – WLL has moved from under $20 to $29, but then went sideways for weeks. It may be ready to resume the second leg of the run. It moved $25 to $30 since the dcl.
LPI– LPI is lagging, but on your watchlist, it could be bought as it breaks out from this lag & the 50sma.
Finally: Oil inventory is released on Wednesdays, The overall crude build was a bit less than expectations. That is bullish for Oil and part of the reason that Oil continued to rise.
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USD – I would have expected the USD to drop to the 200 sma, and Gold to POP a bit more, but we have a doji on the 50 sma, and that may act as support. If the USD bounces off of the 50sma, Gold should pullback, and…
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PRECIOUS METALS, THE FOMC MINUTES, AND ‘TIMING’.
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GOLD #1 – We are on day 20 for Gold, and daily cycles often run 30+ days ( say 30-35ish). Gold reversed after the FOMC MTG, and left behind what is often a topping candle. As day 20, a dip can begin at anytime. It does NOT have to be straight down, just that a peak may be in place.
GOLD #2 – In this run higher, we have seen 4 or 5 day runs, then a sideways pause, repeat, repeat, except for the Dec-Jan run, so we’ll have to wait and see how deep this dip goes. Gold has been too strong to tag that 50sma, but a deeper ICL is also coming due, so we just have to play it with that in mind.
SLV – SLV made new peaks twice, but the volume is lighter and the RSI & MACD have been weakening. I did think that SILVER could quickly shoot higher and catch up with GOLDS run to June highs, but that may or may not happen. I do own some Silver Miners and since they broke out, I’d like to hold on to them. Silver is NOT overbought.
GDX – A topping candle on day 19, and a GAP at $22.50. We have seen these candles in the past lead to a sideways chop & then a drop, so buyers MIGHT be able to prop this up for a bit longer before a deeper dip plays out. See September and October circles, but the point is that we are due for a dip as time goes on. It has been a bullish uptrend and the weekend report gives the Big Picture if needed.
GDX 15 minute intraday – The FOMC dropped the advance, and we do have a gap below. The MACD was weak, even before the FOMC Minutes, because we are due for a pause.
GDXJ – Possible topping candle.
Do not despair if we get a good dip into March. We are due for a ‘re-set’, a drop into an ICL to reset sentiment, and that will be a GREAT buying opportunity from what I can see. Why? The BIG PICTURE weekend report can help you to see why. That shake out & recovery in GDX & GDXJ looks very bullish, and lower prices ahead would offer a nice ‘sale price’ entry. So far, we have also seen some Miners just move higher while GDX & GDXJ dips down, so some individual Miners may reveal their strength during the pull back, I’ll be looking for that too.
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We’ll see how things follow through today, Enjoy your Thursday trading, and I’ll have a few ideas below too.
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~ALEX
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HBM – We have discussed the ‘other’ Metals since the end of last year too. HBM, CLF, X, AKS, TGB, CENX, SID, FCX, WRN, etc , as having put in their lows and possibly ready to move higher. This was an inverse H&S Buy posted on Jan 4.
HBM – SLOWLY but surely, many Metals stocks have moved off of the lows, consolidated, etc. So this is HBM now, and this is encouraging when we consider other Metals stocks. Let’s take a look…
TGB – This looks very much like that first HBM chart ( inverse H&S) that ran well. Both are copper stocks. I posted this Wednesday morning at the open, it is a buy since it closed above the 50sma with strong volume.
TGB – Though the USD Popped after Fed Minutes and Miners pulled back, Notice that TGB closed near the highs. This is still a Buy with a stop below the purple arrow. THIS IS A BUY, EARNINGS HAVE BEEN RELEASED A WEEK AGO.
CENX – Though the USD Popped after Fed Minutes and Miners pulled back, Notice that CENX also closed near the highs. EARNINGS IS RELEASED AFTER THE MARKET TODAY FEB 21– so it may be best to watch this one until after that release.
MJ ETF – Many MJ stocks started to move bullishly higher after a pause. The MJ ETF closed above the 10 sma 3 days in a row. This looks good too.
ACB – ACB reversed on the 200sma and this can be bought with a stop under the 200sma, or even some wiggle room below the 50sma. OR…. Buy after a break higher above the 10sma, since that breaks the mini down trend line. These run fast when they get going.
APHA – APHA closed above the 200sma. This does not look like much, but read the chart. This also can run swiftly.
HEXO – HEXO is leading the way, back at Feb highs. Look at Wednesdays volume, and I think this wants to run.
TLRY – NOTE: I have NOT mentioned TLRY since owning it on the fast run last Aug-September. I have NOT mentioned it once with all of my MJ reports on ACB, HEXO, CRON, TGODF, etc etc. Why? Because it did not look ready to me. Does it now? I Bought this yesterday and may add if it gets moving higher. I see many things that I now like, and now this looks like a better base with rising lows since December. Let’s zoom in.
TLRY –
1. Oversold
2. A volume surge on news of a purchase (read the chart)
3. Price is pinched in a triangle and at the lows of the triangle
4. This moves very fast, see January. $70 to $110 in a week. Scroll UP and look at the upside possibility vs a stop at the lows here. GOOD RISK/REWARD
EMHTF – I bought this too. It was at the lows of a stairway higher, and is pushing on the 200sma. It actually closed above it and I would still buy this here. Let’s zoom out…
EMHTF – I would still buy this because it broke the downtrend, back tested it, and is ready to go. It is OVERSOLD and the RSI curled up at 50%, volumes are good on up days.
TGODF – I still own this and it is acting correctly, holding up at the 50 sma and now the 10sma.
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VVCIF – This one is just getting going after a reversal at support. Mark Marin reminded me to check this one out in the live trading area during the day Tuesday. It is holding support. 
HVBTF BLOCKCHAIN (BY REQUEST ) – Yes, I still own it and did plan on selling some around the 200sma, but the volume is pouring in and it is still acting correctly, and I love the volume increasing, so I have not lightened up. Also there is this…
HVBTF BIG PICTURE – The 20 cent lows of this base in December may be THE LOWS of the big picture Base, and riding at least a nice chunk of this as a rounding base could pay off well over time. It already has, being up 15% per Day recently.
Finally – Normally I would have bought this NAK reversal, but I have plenty of positions right now. If Gold pulls back, will this stall or break higher? It is on my watch list for today. NAK has been moving bullishly higher for weeks.
