Thursday February 14th – Expectations

 

 

NASDAQ –  The NASDAQ has now reached the 200 sma.   We are getting late in the daily cycle.

 

 

SPX – We have seen false break outs in the past, and yesterday  The SPX popped above the 200sma and then sold off a bit. We are late in the daily cycle and need to expect that a dip to a daily cycle low will start sooner than later.   If I were long, my stop would be raised to the 200sma.

 

 

 

 

WTIC  –  THIS IS A TOUGH ONE.

1. We had a very long sell off in Oil at the end of last year.

2.  Now I am wondering if we are now seeing a very short first daily cycle?

3.  The trend line was broken, the 8 ema  turned down, and now we have a swing low and a close above the 10sma.    I think we may have just had a shallow dcl, but if not, this is a 1/2 cycle low, either one can be bought.

 

 

XLE – And The XLE , OIH, and XOP are now moving higher too.  I’m still keeping my eye on the OIL & Energy stocks for Long positions.

 

UUP YESTERDAY  – When the USD rolled over, I was asked if it was a ‘swing high’. I put this in the report, explaining that it is early and I have seen reversals like this on the way up before  ( Blue Arrows) .

 

UUP  –  And the USD turned higher yesterday.   Gold Popped and then dropped….

 

 

GOLD  –  Gold broke above that 10 sma yesterday, but it did not close there.  It has now closed under the 10 sma 5 days and the MACD looks weak.   As a late daily cycle, it may have ‘peaked’ already and we may have already started seeing gold drift lower.

 

 

GDX #1  – GDX  has also been trapped under the 10sma and that 10sma  has begun to turn lower.   At this point,  we have a ‘peak’ on day 7 and this is usually when the sector starts to sell off.  It may continue to be a gradual drift lower  or the selling may pick up the pace, but at day 16, this is already Left Translated if GDX cannot break to a new high.  And..

 

GDX #2 –   Notice that channel that I had been drawing.   We broke above it, but GDX has now  fallen back inside.  THAT is usually a false break out, meaning that the day 7 ‘Peak’ will likely be the highs, and this will eventually fall from here.  That said, I started a small starter  ‘short’  position,  and I consider it low risk since my stop can be the 10sma or blue upper channel line ( They are the same right now).

So as a summary:

General Markets are getting late in the daily cycle and I would expect a dip into a dcl soon.

OIL surprised me and suddenly that choppy period that I was complaining about looks like it may be the DCL.   Oil & Energy Stocks are hovering around their 50sma, so a break higher by those could be a nice ‘buy’ trade. I have mentioned OAS, NOG, WTI, EGY, KEG, LPI,  CRK,  WLL, and others in recent reports ( Along with GUSH & OILU as 3x etfs).

GOLD & The MINERS seem to be struggling at the 10sma and thought they have POPPED HIGHER  in the morning, they seem to eventually sell off into the close,  closing under the 10sma.   GDX is also now back inside of the rising channel, so I took a small starter short position.   I repeat ‘SMALL STARTER short position’.

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~ALEX

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GUSH – This is a 3x etf and can be risky, but if ti breaks above the 50sma it could be bought.  It follows XOP , and XOP actually DID break back above the 50sma, so in my opinion,  GUSH can be bought with a stop using XOP.

 

EGY – This chart was posted of EGY bouncing off of the 50sma.

EGY  is getting the follow through hoped for, and I’m  hoping that other energy stocks will follow

NOG –  I bought NOG a couple of days ago and so far it is a slow gainer, slow & steady,  but I’m thinking that it may move to the 200sma again if it can get above this 50 sma.  That is $2.25 to $3.00 and it canbe bought here too at $2.42.

 

I also own CRK,  shown here yesterday above the 50sma

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PROGRESS OF A TRADE  

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VHI  – this BASE was recommended several times, and here especially as it was breaking higher.

 

VHI  – Then it flagged and broke even higher,  this was a good place to add.

 

VHI  – Suddenly it popped about 30%, I captured this chart midday.  IT should run to the 200sma, but it may be wise to sell some & lock in gains…

 

VHI  –  Since then it consolidated and now looks like a buy again.  This could be bought if it breaks out,  or you can buy it in the APEX here and use a tight stop  (in case it back tests the 50sma instead of breaking higher.  THis is a trade looking for $3.25 to $4.oo – that 200sma or more.

 

TK was posted here 2 days ago, and remains bullish looking at the 50sma