January 8th – Mondays Pops
In The last quarter of 2018, various areas of the markets began drying up and going stale. We saw the equity markets & Oil crashing down and many good set ups that would form would quickly fall apart. Trades in Miners and some of the Medical Marijuana companies were playing out ok, but there was definitely a choppy vibe in the GDX & GDXJ area too, into December.
.
Suddenly, we have seen bottoms develop (temporary or longer term bottom remains to be seen), and along with these bottoms are set ups that are finally working out, and many are working out very well. Let’s take a look at Mondays action…
.
REMINDER: At the end of December, IN MY REPORT, I mentioned that this reversal candle on day 39, was a buy in technical analysis, with a stop under that days lows. If an ICL is in place (Day 1) , those lows will not be broken for weeks. So far, this is playing out well. You can see that I said that ” This is a BUY” in that December report.
In the past week and weekend end report, I gave my current analysis of the various sectors that we follow. Nothing changed Monday, so now let’s look at what we have in various areas of the markets. These are some of the things that I am looking at, and some stock picks too.
.
LET’s DISCUSS ENERGY
.
QEP – I bought GUSH, QEP, DNR, OAS, and some followed me into those trades when I mentioned it. Qep gapped open about 35% Monday when a buyer offered them $8.75 / share. I did not sell right away and I explained in the chat area that price may try to climb & FIND that price as the day goes on. I would sell there. It tagged $8.75 after I posted this chart and I sold Everything. If they offered $8.75, I don’t see price going above that if the deal is accepted or not.
OIH – With GUSH, I’m hopeful that we’ll see IOH, XLE, and XOP still move a little higher. Maybe shorts will continue to cover and buyers will buy down here.
So far GUSH has gone from $6 at the reversal to $11. I don’t want to be greedy, but Maybe we’ll get a double this week ? I will sell 1/2 if I do.
OAS #1 – Prior bounces in this sector can be seen using OAS. What is the difference this time? Does it look any better?
OAS what I am looking at for many of these – 1. The RSI is much stronger. 2. Price got above the 10 sma, rode it sideways, now lifting off. 3. Volume is consistently strong , whether it is short cover or buying or both. 4. Look at the lower box. This is MUCH stronger. These are acting correctly.
.
MINERS
.
GDX#1 – Well, we see a bearish engulfing again, but these have been met with Buying at the 10sma every time. I also see…
GDX #2 – The 10 sma is holding up price, even with the bearish engulfing. At day 35, I Still have to expect a break down to the 50sma in cycle analysis, but so gar the Miners have resisted selling. If this continues, something very different needs to be accepted.
GDX #3 – We have been watching Miners crawl along the top of this channel. We are at resistance, but this has continued. A pull back would be healthy.
GDX #4 – The Bearish melt down last summer had price trapped under the 9 sma in a bearish manner, day after day after day. No real bounce. Now we see the same thing in a bullish melt up , it is happening in the same manner. As mentioned in prior reports, breaking from a BASE can draw in technical buyers. NOW WE SEE that buying the ICL in September and just holding through all of the chop would have worked, but that Chop was VERY difficult. In fact…
GDX – This CHOPPINESS dropped GDXJ to a NOV lows right down at the September ICL again. In JNUG, it broke to new lows in November, so this has been a very choppy sector into December (With some nice leaders AEM, ABX, KL, etc along the way). You seriously might want to consider a small basket of Miners playing catch up if you do not own any miners yet. IS THAT WISE?
.
IS THAT WISE?
.
EGO – GDX & GDXJ were down on Monday, yet some Juniors like EGO were up. Ego is flagging above the 50sma. This is still right at the lows.
NGD – I pointed out ALO, NGD, and others recently as bases with potential. NGD popped Monday and closed up 7%.
AUMN – I mentioned buying AUMN at the 50sma last week. It dropped Monday morning and then ran up into the end of the day, with GDX & GDXJ at the lows of the day.
So we are probably going to see some individual Miners hold up in their bases or breaking out of the bases to play catch up, even if Gold, GDX & GDXJ do pull back. I have been posting some set ups in the reports despite the fact that the sector is due for a pull back. It is acting Bullishly, so you may still want to buy some of the lower risk set ups.
HL using this chart, HL was posted recently, and it was at a support area, and it looks like it wants to pull back a bit after Mondays trading. In fact, FSM, AG, CDE, etc all look like they want to pull back, so a buying opportunity may be close by.
.
THE LEADERS DO LOOK READY TO PULL BACK AND ALLOW YOU AN ENTRY TOO!
.
BTG – This looks ready to pull back now
KL – This looks ready to pull back now , it looks like it started Monday. Get ready to buy in the coming days or weeks.
RGLD – This looks ready to pull back now, but it may not be a deep one, so just be ready to buy when the time comes along 🙂
.
GENERAL MARKET SET UPS
.
ROKU blasted 25% higher on Monday. I have mentioned that I like the semiconductor set up for certain reasons. Let’s take another look.
.
CY – I posted CY , MU, AMD, at the end of December when the markets bottomed. This was CY. Good news…
CY – Its only 30 cents higher ( oh well) but it still looks to be set up nicely. It is pushing on the 50sma and should be able to break above it.
AMD – AMD did break above the 50sma. This was a buy with a stop under that 50sma to keep it low risk.
JKS – I looked at WNDW, JKS, CSIQ, VSLR ,ENPH, etc and I see signs of a run here too. JKS struggled for a few days at the 50sma and then pushed higher. I personally wont buy it here, but it could just keep running from here. It just ran from about $9 to $12, so if it dropped a bit, I might find an entry.
.
METALS
.
CLF – I discussed CLF, AKS, X , CPST, CENX, HBM, TGB, WRN. VALE and others in this sector is perking up and still near the lows. We will continue to watch this sector unfold and find opportunities here too.
CPST – Bull Flagging on the 50sma is often a bullish sign and a good buy point, anticipating a pop higher and possibly a run to the 200sma.
For example: PLUG was a bull flag that I mentioned last week in the comments section and it Popped Monday. That was good for a 14% day. Lock that in and go to lunch for free.
.
SHIPPERS – Often Shippers run with OIL…
.
TOPS – This is a buy. Buy it and sell it if it tags the 50 sma, or hold on and see if it forms a large base & cup over time.
DCIX – This shipper is actually doing good work. It was working the 10sma with a POP, sideways, POP, sideways, POP. So don’t be surprised if the chart above of TOPS does something like that too. You can buy the sideways slide if it does.
.
GLBS – Many of these Shippers look similar. They sold off with OIL, but seem to have started basing out. I rode this one and made very good gains in October. I wrote “Watchlist’ because I didnt like the volume at 2 p.m., but by the close it was better. I think that this could be a BUY right here with a stop.
DRYS – EXTREMELY HIGH RISK, but this could be big gains too. I don’t like to include super high risk trades, so all I will say is if you take this trade, USE A REASONABLE STOP and don’t trade this if you are not wanting the possibility of a large cut. I know some have traded it in the past. It has done a number of reverse splits, so the chart looks as though it can break out and run quickly.
.
MJ STOCKS – have been acting bullishly too
.
CNAB – I mentioned in a recent report MJ stocks like CNAB , CNBX , LBUY, THCBF, ISOLF, etc were popping off of their lows, and others were moving higher out of bases. CNAB & CNBX have had follow through. CNAB wants to break through that 50sma. Can it?
THCBF – THCBF certainly did and this was as of 11 a.m. Eastern Time. This closed up even higher, over 30%, with double the volume. This adds to the idea that this sector is heating up for real, and others may follow.
EDXC MIDDAY – EDXC has actually been ‘Popping’ for 2 weeks, as though someone knows something & maybe insiders were buying?
EDXC – At the close it was up 14.4% with strong volume. An Earnings release discussed profits, but also they have been audited and are trying to be listed on a more favorable OTC exchange and changed their name to CBD Unlimited . So…
EDXC WEEKLY – Scrolling back, it does look like they have the potential to do well in the long run, with this big picture view. It is a penny stock , so it may not be for everyone.
MMNFF – I mentioned that I Bought MMNFF days ago. I did not like the light volume climb on this one, so I sold it for now & posted that in the chat area. Volume CAN increase later, but right now I decided to take profits. It then dropped and closed 20 cents lower. It may just tag that 10 sma.
NXTTF – I am pointing this chart out for a reason.
1. Look at the Capitulation
2. Look at the small flat base that formed after that.
3. Notice how it then Popped and ran to the 50sma?
4. That is about an 80% gain. Next chart please…
TRTC – This looks the same to me, but it is still at the lows, so I mentioned that I bought it in the chat area.
1. Look at the Capitulation
2. Look at the small flat base that formed after that.
3. Notice how it then Popped in the volume – can it run to the 50sma? Big gains if it does.
TRTC – It then closed at 74 cents, up 20% for the day, but I do think that this may be ready to run next.
.
I have been pointing out VHI Bullishly Crawling under the 50sma. We got a POP today and I grabbed this chart midday, and it closed above that 50sma, up almost 10%. This is a buy too.
.
So you have heard the saying “Feast or Famine” and that seems to be what has happened here in the stock market. We were looking for proper set ups that would give us some follow through, yet everything started drying up on the vine. Now, after the storm winds of the selling blow over, we see proper set ups breaking higher.
.
Whether it is just short term short covering or fresh buyers deploying money in various sectors of the markets, it doesn’t matter, we are seeing good follow through for now in the markets again. The Theme Picture for todays report depicts the dried up famished conditions that we went through in the trading toward the end of 2018, and suddenly after the storm, we see fresh growth and a brighter looking month of January for trading.
.
Enjoy your Tuesday trading, and thanks for a Chartfreak with me!
.
