January 31st – Post Fed Pops
We had some nice action after the FOMC Decision Wednesday. A lot of the sectors played our as expected, so lets discuss what to expect going forward too.
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SPX – The General Markets broke higher with the Fed ‘No Rate Hike” Decision. I expect a little more upside.
UPRO – UPRO, SOXL, TQQQ, etc are good 3x etfs for ‘Fast Gains”, since this daily cycle could peak after another run higher.
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THERE IS SO MUCH TO TALK ABOUT HERE, BUT SOME I WILL JUST HAVE TO SAVE FOR THE WEEKEND REPORT. MANY AREAS STILL LOOK REALLY GOOD, SO LET’S JUST LOOK INTO THINGS AT THE CURRENT STAGE OF THE GAME, BUT THIS WILL BE A RATHER LONG REPORT.
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WTIC – This daily cycle can be 40-50 days long. It has been my thinking that Oil will continue higher after a pause at the 50sma. I believe that Oil is now ready to make another run higher. I will show you Bullish set ups (Buy opportunities) at the end of the report for OIL & Energy Stocks.
OILU 3X ETF – Oils back test of the 50sma was a low risk entry, but I still think that this is a buy. (3X Etf, so it can be tricky). This first run was 412 to $21, I rode part of that and also rode GUSH. Lets look at The Oil / Energy sector…
XLE – Bullish and a Buy. Gush follows XOP more than the XLE, so id the XOP moving higher too yet?
XOP – XOP broke back over the 50sma, that is a BUY ( and a BUY for GUSH). Place a stop under recent lows this week.
So the Oil / Energy Sector is on a buy, if you ask me, And at the end of the report I will show you individual stocks that are also setting up Bullishly. Let the Gains continue .
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UUP ( USD) – The USD looks to be rolling over and the FED didn’t help. It could drop to and even below that 200sma with the time left in this daily cycle. I would think that this would help push Gold Higher.
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GOLD & MINERS ARE THE TRICKY ONE DUE TO CYCLE TIMING. THEY ARE COMING DUE TO DRP INTO A LOW, BUT THEY ARE ACTING BULLISHLY.
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GOLD – Gold continued higher after the FOMC Mtg. It is Bullish and it has been fairly straight up out of the DCL, but I do expect over time that a pull back will come along, so a trailing stop ( or Raise stops) is recommended. Read the chart.
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These 3 charts-
are copied from my report 2 days ago as a possibility of GOLD bullishly running Post Fed, but still pulling back .
It makes sense in the Big Picture too.
GOLD – So yes, mMaybe we’ll see something like this. On the left of this chart I am simply showing that a straight up strong move CAN weaken and pull back. If you are long, I would just ride this move for all it is worth, but when the reversal takes place, we have to be willing to accept the normal moves of a market.
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In yesterdays report I mentioned that GOLD broke out of its channel, and that is a bullish development, increasing the angle of the move higher. I wrote this…
GDX – I then said that GOLD broke out of its channel, can GDX after a FED DAY PUSH? It did. I am looking at the Magenta Line as a possible target if this continues higher. IF you bought the DCL, RAISE STOPS. GDX is Mixed though, because …
GDX – GDX closed with a reversal candle. That isn’t ALWAYS a top, but it CAN BE A TOP, so we pay attention. On day 6 this late in an Intermediate Cycle ( I am talking about the roughly 6 month cycle), we look for possible signs of a ‘peak’ before a drop into a normal pull back known as an ICL.
GDXJ – Notice that GDXJ shot up after the Fed, and then fell back. It just so happened to fall back Right At Resistance, and again that is often a short term topping reversal candle’. See the last one in October.
JNUG – After the FED, I grabbed this chart as JNUG took off higher, so this was at 2:30 before it pulled back. I would recommend raising stops to support, maybe the 200 sma or 8 ema.
AS A SIDE THOUGHT:
CDE – MANY SILVER STOCKS ARE STILL NEAR THE LOWS. They may run higher before taking a break, because they are not overbought yet. This run MIGHT even push the GDXJ higher, making that topping candle a false candle, just a pause .
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I have a lot of bullish charts popping up everywhere, and the General Markets and Oil Sector should have Time for more upside. Why? Since they are moving out of an ICL ( Intermediate Cycle Low), The first 2 daily cycles can be good and last 2-3 months. The Miners are a bit different, though they are acting very bullishly. At this point in time, they moved out of a Daily Cycle Low( DCL), and yes they are moving nicely higher, but they are a bit less predictable. The ICL for GDX / GDXJ was in September and the next one comes due sooner than later. That would call for a peak & a drop sooner than later too, so they need monitoring .
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Right now, I am going to post a bunch of trade set ups below. I have active traders here that like lots of choices, but YOU may be a trader that just wants 1-3 trades. DO NOT GET FRUSTRATED at the amount of opportunities presented, trust me, even I do not or cannot buy every trade posted, but I do like to see a large number of bullish set ups. Why? It confirms that we aren’t looking at a rare trade or two with no conviction, instead we are looking at entire sectors that may be set up acting bullishly.
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Enjoy your Thursday trading !
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~ALEX
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I already talked about the Bullish look in INDUSTRIAL METALS, and we had buy opportunities in CLF, X, HB , CENX, AKS, etc . Lets revisit that sector first.
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X – US Steel was a buy as it broke the down trend in January. It is now breaking above the 50 sma this morning , so I captured this at 11:40. It closed with more volume than any daily in the past few weeks, so it looks good and is a buy, or add to your current position. This has moved from $17 to $22, but should continue higher. Read the chart.
CENX – Cenx moved above the 50sma and looks ready to run too.
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CLF – In early January I posted CLF as a buy when it broke the down trend
CLF – CLF bull flagged and crawled along under the 50sma, then it POPPED on Jan 25 .
CLF Now it has added another 20% gain on top of all of that. CLF has now moved from $7.5 to $11, but notice that it ISNT straight up. That is how many of these move.
HBM – This was a buy a while ago too at the 50sma. I wanted to show this again because it also isn’t moving straight up, but it is making nice steady gains.
So the Metals are still running well, and some are at the 50sma as a good point to buy or add, but I also wanted to show you something here. With these, they run higher and you can raise stops at support & resistance ( 50 sma, 200 sma, etc) , but they do often chop around and consolidate those gains, so look at the above charts and learn how they move.
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ENERGY STOCKS LOOK VERY GOOD
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OAS – OAS has now crawled under the 50sma and looks ready to POP through it soon. It CAN be bought here with this bulish reversal candle, or wait until the break out happens. Read the chart, those other stocks look good too.
LPI – Ready to go? I think so as it moves back above the 8 ema. That MACD also has bullish divergence as it starts to curl upward now.
WLL – WLL is even better than the others. WLL ran from $19 to $30 and then churned along the 50sma. WLL regained it last week. This is a buy. $29 to $40 anyone? 🙂
PDS – PDS made a higher low and then reversed with Good volume. It broke & closed above the 50sma.
KEG – KEG has a double bottom low, yet the MACD is strongly pushing higher. The first low was the Final capitulation low, usually a solid Bottom. It closed green, so we have a small reversal, but if you see upside, that could be a buy with a stop under the double bottom lows. I have to post this as a bit risky, it has had a reverse split and sold off heavily etc, but notice that it sold from $10 to $1 in a month. A ‘Bounce’ alone could offer very good gains for the experienced trader.
APA – This is still a buy and has been acting bullishly since DEC. $26 to $33. Use a stop under the 50sma.I think that this is heading to $39 or so too.
MCF – This would be a buy for me right here, but I hate low volume. It is just breaking the 50sma after crawling along , and you can see that it used to trade with 300,000 -500,000 volume, so if volume picks up , this will be a better buy set up
MANY of the ENERGY STOCKS LOOK GREAT.
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TECH- I will mention this further in the weekend report. You know that I said that we would have to watch the first 2 daily cycles out of the ICL to gauge if this is going to be bullish longer term or just a convincing ‘Dead Cat Bounce’ as they call it.
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AAPL – Some of our Big Winners that got crushed have been basing and not really participating in the recent rally out of the lows. They may be about to play catch up. AAPL beat earnings and POPPED. AND …
FB – look at the volume coming into FB, before they released their earnings. Someone knew something, because they did great after hrs and it closed up $20 in after hours! In other words, it should actually gap over the 200sma Thursday.
SO MY THOUGHT IS – WILL TECH ACTUALLY BE ABLE TO RECOVER AFTER THIS DEEP CORRECTION? If so , the trades could be another sector of great gains for us ( TQQQ should do well too). Let’s continue a bit further…
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AMZN – AMZN is now a buy with a stop under the 50sma. Look how it is walking along the 50sma and the 50sma has started to turn upward. It is also near oversold again, so AMZN might break out through the 200sma and run.
AWSM – The ticker says ‘Awesome’ so it’s easy to remember. Keep your eye on this one. AWSM has slowly moved 300% from the lows roughly $1 to $3.50, with very strong Volume Pops and a rounding base. Most here know how I feel about a parabolic run followed by a long base consolidation. An eventual recovery would be , well….AWESOME.
AWSM – It is also pretty AWSM that it just rides the 9 ema so far. Due to the way this moves, it is risky, but so far buying at the 9 ema has been safe enough (lottery ticket).
MU – This was a buy under the 50sma, and this bull flag can be another buy or add opportunity.
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MJ STOCKS
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CVSI – I was looking at this weekly , and when it breaks out, this really could take off higher quickly.
CVSI – If I draw it on a daily chart, it looks to be breaking out. I don’t own it, but I do want to if it runs higher.
EDXC – I posted this in the comments / chat section below our reports within the first 1/2 hr of trading. The run is getting extreme, but it has held that 8 ema nicely.
EDXC WEEKLY- The BIG PICTURE shows this as a break out, and the gains can be enormous, but that doesn’t mean that it will be straight up the way that it has. I have been holding a lot of this for years now from 2 & 3 cents, but I sold a portion just to lock in my original investment and will let he rest ride. I do expect higher price over time.
TBPMF – Another MJ stock explodes off of the 50sma, after going sideways and acting like it has no interest in running with the others. I am only posting this to make that point, these are acting correctly, though they don’t all run at once ( 18% gains Wednesday).
VVCIF – I think that this one is next. Look at the above chart of TBPMF at the 50sma, and this one. The way they are acting at the 50sma , they are like TWINS.
NBEV – Yes , I still own it. It is slowly running higher.
NIO – This was mentioned in the comments today and I like the chart A LOT. It broke above the 50sma and volume was good ( this was midday), it closed with 10 million more in volume. It is The Chinese version of TESLA. I can’t recommend this as a buy for non experienced traders, but it is a buy with a stop at the 50sma for those that don’t mind trades that move quickly.
