Tuesday Dec 4th
As a reminder: The stock market is closed on Wednesday. Most were buying or adding to positions Minday, based on previous reports and the discussion in the comments section. Let’s take a look at what happened during Mondays trading…
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The Trade Wars with US tariffs against China have been put on Hold, The FED started to indicate that Rate Hikes may now be near an acceptable ( neutral) level, and the Markets have a ‘W’ -bottom in place. It looks like an ICL is in place from the October lows, now let;s discuss the general markets.
SPX – DAY 24 had Good volume as the SPX popped over the 50sma. A push higher to new November highs from here would make this first daily cycle Right Translated. The environment for what they call a seasonal Santa Rally is better, but know that this still can remain choppy, we do have a gap under the 50sma. I would say that a stop could be raised under the 10 sma . NOTE: To be extra safe, A stop can be under the 50sma, but a gap fill will take that trade out. You could always just re-enter on a move back above the 50sma.
SPX – So far the 50 sma and the 50% fib retrace of the drop has been overtaken.
SPX FROM THE WEEKND – The short term trading looks bullish and a year end rally can take place, but in the back of our minds, we should be aware of this possibility in 2019. The SPX is very close to regaining that trend line though.
NASDAQ – At this point we are making lower highs and lower lows. Let’s see if that can change. A move above the November highs makes this a right translated daily cycle too. One thing that I hate when I look at the charts is that in early November we had a strong gap open too. That gap filled and gains were drained. I would have a stop under the 10sma. IF this gap fills and the 10sma doesn’t hold, we may have had a knee jerk reaction in General Markets.
USD – This is starting to have internal weakness.
WTIC – OIL FINALLY BROKE OUT. MANY ENERGY STOCKS POPPED TOO. I will discuss this later in the report.
XLE NOV 29 – I had been pointing out the XLE bullish wedge & then a break out, resisting Oils drop earlier. Even a run to the 50sma would be great in GUSH or ERX, or even in Many of the beaten down Energy stocks.
XLE – The XLE is following through and oil & Energy stocks are Popping too.
GOLD – Gold is a bullish looking chart, with a day 15 high and it is threatening to break to a new 3+ Month high out of this base! This is really bullish looking, but…
So Gold is a bullish looking chart, but it is more bullish looking than GDX, GDXJ, and many Miners. That is a bit concerning, since we do usually look for Miners to lead the way higher. GDX & especially GDXJ are not near 3 month highs.
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GDX – GDX gapped open, dropped to fill the gap, and then moved higher. That is encouraging, but we still have this (next chart) until a trend develops….
GDX – It drops below the 50 sma and looks like a bearish break down, then Pops above the 50 sma and looks bullish, then that pattern repeats. This has been whipsaw, but we can look for & hope that a change takes place. MINERS NEED TO CATCH UP TO GOLDS BULLISHNESS.
ABX – Some stocks still remain bullish, others remain questionable or near lows. ABX can be bought with a stop, but the health of the overall sector remains rather unclear.
So that is your coverage of what took place on Monday after the G20 Meeting. There was a lot of bullish reaction and we should see some follow through, I have been pointing out OIL & the Energy sector for a while, so you may have even done some buying in that area. I have some trade ideas below. Just a reminder: Markets are closed Wednesday in the U.S. , but that shouldn’t really change anything.
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Enjoy your Tuesday Trading!
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~ALEX
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To get this report released by 8:15 a.m. eastern time, I am not proof reading the trade section of this report below
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I just want to quickly go through some trade ideas. Expect this to be short on words and all about the charts.
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GH – This may just rocket higher, but if it flags or stalls it is an EXCELLENT chart set up. I saw it at $40 and almost entered at the blue line Monday morning, but wanted to see how it closed. That was a bad idea, it never looked back 🙁
UBX – breaking over the 50sma with 2 days of volume, this can really move too ( great potential if it gets going). Look at the price scale on the right side of the chart.
CRMD– Do you remember when CRMD exploded in August- October? That was a huge run from $0.40 to $2.40. Well, it has consolidated and is worth watching. Why?
1. It did NOT sell off with the markets to new lows and
2. It is climbing the 50 sma .
This looks like it has consolidated those gains and wants to form a cup. So whether the markets sell off or not, CRMD seems to be bullish. I watching for support at the 50sma, or another slight break and an inverse H&S pattern.
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OIL & ENERGY – I have been pointing out this sector for a few weeks off and on, anticipating a low in OIl. Oil popped, so lets look at stocks. I NEED TO ADD THIS TOUGHT: These should run to the 50sma, and maybe even more if Oil put in an ICL. The problem is that some MIGHT form a base instead of a V-Bottom. It is still low risk, and if a base starts forming, get out and move on.
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BTE – I posted this 2 minutes after the open, Many stocks began to Pop. It may be short cover, buying , or both. It doesn’t matter, they should have some more upside over the next few days (possibly weeks).
DNR – I bought this and mentioned it in the comments. It closed up about 10%, but has plenty of potential to go, look at the last run.
LPI – Breaking from a wedge, LPI was up 17% and that just looks like a small pop. I would imagine that these can AT LEAST get to the 50 sma, but it’s low risk with a stop under recent lows.
NOG – I also Bought NOG. Again, I am looking for ( hoping for) a run to he 50 sma, maybe more. Look at August & Septembers run higher.
ENLC – Notice this price flattened out while the RSI & middle indicator really spiked higher.
AREX – $1.20 to $1.40, this Popped before Oil did. A run to the 50sma would be $1.70ish.
We need to move on, so did you keep your energy list? Check and look for low risk set ups. HLX, ECA, OAS, WTI, WLL, GNE, QEP, SN, HK, etc etc etc. QEP could be a nice falling wedge pattern, for example.
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WHAT ABOUT CHINA? THEY HAVE BEEN BEATEN DOWN TOO
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CQQQ – China tech ETF. I have been watching this and it Popped after Trade Wars were put on hold too. Many Chinese stocks also have this triangle type base…
SOGO Morning trading – It Gapped open and dropped to close the gap, and…
SOGO Close – It closed the gap and is still at the 50sma. This may be a good trade right now or one to keep an eye on. Also see Chinese stock set ups like IQ, HUYA, JT, BSTI, BABA, RENN, etc etc
AMD #1 – I pointed out this trade after the NASDAQ Bottomed, and mentioned stocks liek CY, MU, SQ, AMD< etc may be worth buying near the lows.
AMD #2 – After bullishly flagging sideways, AMD was up another 11% Monday and actually looks like it may get right through the 50sma. CY, SQ, & MU Popped too, lets look at MU…
MU – This looks like it wants to break above the 50sma, but maybe this will fill the gap and then break out above the 50sma. Keep it on a watch list (or buy a break out if you wish).
CRON NOV 15th – Recently I discussed some MJ stocks that I liked, but others were trapped under their 10sma or 8 ema, and should be avoided. CRON was shown here with a possible shake out and…
CRON WEEKLY NOV 29 – I also liked the weekly support. Others were not holding up as well. This was a low risk buy with a stop under the 50weekly ma.
CRON – Cron ‘only’ closed up 11%, but it was up a lot more when news came out that their was possibly a buy out offer. There is a good chance that this still sees follow through, with hopes that they will take the offer or the deal will be sweetened. So far, the buy out offer was neither accepted, declined, or denied. It may be pending.
ACB – Midday, many MJ Stocks popped midday, but sold back down into the close. I actually do & do not like ACB, since it is under the 50 and 200 sma. The MACD is rising as it flattens out though, so it may follow through on yesterdays pop.
MRMD – This may need more time, but for an OTC stock, this is a pretty nice orderly bullish run higher. I have traded it twice, but I try to patiently wait for the steeper run higher part, using this kind of a pattern analysis. Jumping in early can be a long consolidation ride. This Might need to tag the 80 sma again.
