Tuesday Dec 11th

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Dec 8th Big Picture Ideas Coming Together

 

SPX  WEEKLY - So far this looks quite similar to the Early 2018 Choppiness,  but I did explain one big difference in Fridays report ...

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Dec 7th – Fast Markets, Fast Reversals

  After dropping 800 points on Tuesday, if I told you that the DOW JONES rallied more than 700 Points on Thursday, would you believe me?

 Well, it actually did,  but that was only after it dropped over another 800 points first!  These markets have been fast, choppy, and Crazy at times.    Within just 1 week we saw 2 Bullish bursts after Powell and the G20 Mtg, followed by 2 days of crashing  that actually erased weeks of trading.

  Well, today is Friday,  the last trading day of the week.    Let's look at some of the market action, and this weekend I will cover more detail in the Big Picture Weekend Update. ...

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SPX #1-  Day 26 of this daily cycle saw a  big crash & a big reversal too.  What Might be next in the short term ?

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December 6th – Thursdays Trading

Well, it has only been 1 trading day since my last Tuesday morning report, what has changed since then?  The Theme Picture of this report is a hint. Wow!

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Review for those that need it:   The markets have been very volatile lately.  Since the Sell off in the month of October to a trade-able Low, the trading has been very choppy ( as expected).  As of last week, we had a 'Powell Pop' 5 trading days ago, and then price moved to the 50 & 200 sma as we approached the 'G20 Weekend Meeting'.  The daily cycle was  getting old at day 23, and that 50 & 200 could be strong resistance, so what would happen after that G20 Meeting?  Well,  Monday had another Gap open higher, right above both the 50 & 200 sma, but it closed in a doji candle with a gap under it.  That looked very strong & convincing for this daily cycle, but I did note that the Doji could indicate a dip down to close that gap.   A stop under the 10sma was advised.    Well, from there, we can discuss Tuesdays trading,  a day that actually saw the Dow lose 800 Points!

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OIL UPDATE DEC 5th

Just a quick update of what we at Chartfreak were looking for with Oils recent plunge.

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OIL – Nov 20th, I was telling my readers that I would be watching for a break above the 8 ema, to make a safe entry at a swing low.  Each pause sideways was breaking down  ( Bear flags) .

 

NOV 23-  Each pause in the drop remained a bear flag, the 8 ema still capping any progress

 

 

WTIC  NOV 27th –  This is very oversold and also we were keeping a cycle count.  The daily cycle near 70 days was VERY extended, so again, we are watching for a break out above that 8 ema  ( or 10sma) .

 

 

WTIC NOV 29th,  we had a reversal or pause and it was late time-wise,  so we stayed on alert for a break out

 

 

I even did some research and looked back at another similar deep sell off  ( in the summer of  2015), and saw that it lasted 61 days ,  then after the break of the 8 ema,  it eventually bounced to the 50sma.  A good trade with leverage or options.

 

 

We finally had our break out, and this could be a signal to go long  (with a stop) .

 

DEC 5th  ( Today)  we have a swing low and a back test.

 

THIS IS WHAT WE HAVE WAITED FOR AS A SAFER ENTRY , WHERE WE CAN PLACE A STOP AND AVOID GUESSING

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SO  I also was monitoring the XLE with Oils sell off –  IT RESISTED OILS SELLING  TOWARD THE END.

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XLE NOV 29 – We saw a falling wedge and I would expect at least a run to back test the 50sma, but possibly more if this is a yearly cycle low in Oil.

 

 

XLE POPPED on Dec 3rd  and…

 

XLE #1 –   It dropped with the Tuesday Market sell off.  So far, we have a Back test of the 10sma & Higher?  Or…

 

XLE #2 –  Back test the wedge & Higher?   

 

Time will tell, but a stop can be placed under recent lows , and you may even choose to trade options or GUSH. 

 

So this is how we have been tracking OILS big sell off, and the possible opportunity that could come after a low forms.   We are also looking at Oil & Energy Stocks.  Will the market sell off drag them down?  I will update these developments in future premium reports.  We may have a major buying opportunity here,  time will tell 🙂

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Why not join us if you think that this kind of analysis would assist you with your trading style too. Thanks for being here at Chartfreak!

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~ALEX

 

Tuesday Dec 4th

As a reminder: The stock market is closed on Wednesday.   Most were buying or adding to positions Minday, based on previous reports and the discussion in the comments section.  Let's  take a look at what happened during Mondays trading...

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Dec 1st weekend Report

Is it a Trade War that will continue as time moves forward, or will there be an agreement of terms that both sides can live with? All eyes seem to be on the  G20 meeting this weekend for the answer to that question, since it already seems to be having implications on how these markets trade going forward.   Just like any war, trade wars often have casualties along the way, and these markets have been very choppy lately.

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EDIT:  This just in...  (Bloomberg) -- Stock markets will close Wednesday for a national day of mourning to honor former President George H.W. Bush.

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Let's review the various Market Sectors to look at The Big Picture and see how they traded this past week...

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SPX - This is what I was watching for,  and then a break to a lower low to the ICL,  or if the ICL is in place from October, a higher low may happen on the next drop.

#1 - Nov 27 I drew this -   A run to the 50sma/ 200 sma, and a possible drop to a lower low.

#2 Or was an OCT ICL is in place?  A break higher after the  G20 meeting results, and then a drop to a higher low.   EITHER WAY,  these markets can remain choppy & difficult. 

 

We are here now

 

SPX - I expected the bounce to this area, and then we need to watch price action at the resistance.  It just happens to fall at the timing for the G20 meeting.

 

Lets continue...

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