November 17 Weekend Report
As time moves forward, we begin to see the moves that we anticipated in various sectors, as they begin rising out of the recent lows. Let’s get updated on our Big Picture expectations…
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SPX WEEKLY #1 – We see that price has moved to resistance, please read the chart.
SPX WEEKLY #2 – Recall that this a-b-c is still possible. Last week left us with a reversal, so we’ll see if we can get a holiday shortened week rally next week.
IWM WEEKLY – The bounce in the RUT ( IWM) has really basically been sideways.
General Markets: As we move forward, we also see some big reactions in Earnings disappointments. I have mentioned GOOG, FB, NFLX, and now another former Bull Runner NVDA has erased major gains from a year & a half in 1 month! So, the BIG Picture for the Bull Run in the General Markets remains cautious.
I mentioned that I went LONG OIL, after discussing the day to day daily count rising above 60 days.
WTIC 4 HR CHART – So I see a shake out at those capitulation lows, and I am hoping that the lows do not need to be re-tested. I would love to see a break out from the down channel. Let’s look at the Big Picture Weekly chart…
WTIC WEEKLY – I was using this as a guide in October as I called for the sell off
WTIC WEEKLY – We do have a weekly reversal candle. Oil long with ETFs UCO, USO, or UWT are optional. $66 seems to be the next resistance area. I also discussed ERX.
NATGAS WEEKLY – I see a topping candle on NATGAS in the recent parabolic type run. This usually ends with a drop from here, but in October, you can see that price went sideways too.
This is just an added warning about using a ‘short leverage’ position. It may or may not not play out right away, so I recommend that you always cut losses quickly regardless of expectations, if you take a leveraged trade that goes against you.
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USD WEEKLY – New highs with divergence and a topping candle. A drop should help Gold, which has started a new daily cycle.
COT – AS OF TUESDAY ( before Gold started a 3 day move higher) , Smart money added to shorts, retail ( or dumb money) also added to shorts. Basically, this is still at the area that we see it at when we look for an ICL, EXCEPT FOR THE RISING OPEN INTEREST.
GOLD DAILY – Here is Golds 3 day run higher, back above the 50 sma. I mentioned that I BOUGHT at the reversal, so I can now raise my stop under the 50 sma, aware that this could become L.T. & peak anytime, from day 5-12 or so.
GOLD WEEKLY – The weekly chart actually has Gold closing above the 10 ma and pushing back through resistance We have a weekly reversal higher off of the intermediate trend line. This & the COT levels do make this look like a bullish chart at this point.
GOLD WEEKLY – I would have expected a back test to the trend line anyway, so we’ll see if Gold can push at least that much higher from here. Just a cautionary note here: Using cycles, a 3rd daily cycle calls for caution, because it can form as a left translated daily cycle. I am long Miners.
SILVER BIG PICTURE shows Silver on a longer term support area.
SILVER BIG PICTURE – So at this point, Silvers Weekly chart looks like a bullish shake out.
GDX DAILY – Just the facts: We gapped open Friday, so a drop as shown Monday won’t alarm me.
GDX WEEKLY – The weekly chart has a rather nice reversal candle. This pushed Miners back above the trend line and 10 weekly MA. In technical analysis, buying that reversal made sense, and we stay alert as it moves forward from here. The chart itself looks really good.
GDXJ – I discussed how the Juniors actually dropped near the lows, and that alone is not a bad thing. We now have a reversal candle and we need to see GDXJ get back above that 10 weekly MA too.
So things are playing out in each sector pretty much as expected with the General Markets putting in their lows, Oil Bottoming, Natgas Topping ( likely), The USD could roll over with the weekly topping candle, and that should help Gold & Miners as they put in their expected lows. I had to put an adjustment in my view of the Precious Metals Sector this week for the Big Picture. It is still an area to be alert or cautious, but I began to see a Bullish outlook too. Why?
I was concerned as GOLD was due for a 3rd daily cycle, this is often 1/2 way through the entire intermediate cycle. That means that it would eventually start to dip toward the next ICL, so Caution is warranted. SILVER was already breaking lows, and GDXJ was at the lows. Plenty of Juniors broke down to new lows after earnings release, HOWEVER, I then also noticed this Monday and began pointing out ( The adjustment) that several Miners were very bullish at this point. I pointed out charts of AU, ABX, KL, BVN, and so on, as bullishly set up to break higher at Golds 3rd daily cycle. As Gold broke higher Wed, Thurs, and Friday – many stocks did follow higher. The short term picture quickly became pretty bullish. NOW WE JUST NEED TO BE ALERT AND STAY FROSTY. A 3rd daily cycle in Gold can become L.T., but Silver just put in a weekly reversal candle that looks like a shake out. Where did that leave us?
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That means that this is still a mixed picture that is at least SHORT TERM Bullish in GOLD, SILVER, & the MINERS. We will watch it play out from here, and we’ll just have to Stay Frosty my friends!
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Have a great weekend!
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~ALEX
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THE CAUTIONARY REMINDER & WHY I OBSERVE THESE THINGS THE WAY I DO: I just want to point out 2 charts.
The first one is Gold now, the second resembles Gold now & how it played out. THIS IS AN EYE OPENER TO ME 🙂
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GOLD AS OF WEDNESDAY – I want you to look at this chart of Gold. Notice the
1. Dec ICL ramp higher
2. Choppy toppy area
3. Summer drop to ICL & 2 daily cycles
This blue box is a real chart & looks exactly like GOLD AS OF WEDNESDAY – So I labelled it for you to be able to follow.
1. The ramp up
2. The choppy toppy area
3. The Sell off last Summer & the 2 daily cycles
4. And This is my concern on the 3rd daily cycle, a run up that looks bullish, but rolls over on the 3rd daily cycle.
So mentally I am keeping this in the back of my mind.
