Tuesday Nov 27th

Not a lot has changed from the weekend report, so let’s take a look at Mondays action…

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SPX – After breaking above the 10 sma, SPX was turned down at the 50 sma and revisited the lows. The SPX is oversold and the MACD does have divergence so we are at least getting a bounce on day 19.

 

From my weekend report, the ICL could be ahead, and if so, any long trade will be capped.

I discussed my thoughts on the General Markets in greater detail last week and in the weekend report, but let’s take another look at the NASDAQ.

No time for proof reading , I’d like to release this near 7 a.m. Eastern.  Please excuse typos- thanks.

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NASDAQ –  The Bounce could back test that 50 & 200 sma, so I’m allowing it time to bounce here. That might be a good place to short the markets if one is inclined to do so ( Some do not like to go short, and that is fine).   SQQQ & SOXS are 3x tech short etfs.  The last only bounce lasted 7 days.

 

LABU – I actually like this wedge in the LABU.  This could break and run to the upper moving averages too, but again, the trading has been choppy & difficult.  I do like the solid divergence in the MACD on that final low.

 

 

UUP – I’m using the UUP to point out how light the volume was in this push higher. As you’ll see, the  Miners had a light volume drop too.

 

 

 

WTIC – Oil also has that bear cross of the 50 sma below the 200sma after that big sell off.   Notice that not 1 of the bear market bounces curled the MACD upward  at all. We do finally see a bit of  divergence in the RSI on the last drop however.

 

 

Instead of just looking at the GOLD , SILVER, & MINERS,  I wanted to also check out the PLATINUM Chart and make sure that it is still holding up.

 

PLATINUM –  Platinum actually looks pretty good here, pinched between the 50 and 200 sma.  I’m trying to keep an eye on Platinum, because it may clue us in on what Gold wants to do.

Will Platinum  1. Drop down and double bottom on future dcl’s ?  or 2. Break out higher & back test the moving averages on the next dcl?  Whatever Platinum does, Gold may do the same.

 

GOLD – Gold is on day 8, and still above the 10 & 50sma, which has now curled higher.

 

GDX –  GDX dropped down toward the 50sma.  As you can see, GDX has been sideways or choppy for quite a while.  Read the chart, GDX had very light volume, even less than a 1/2 day Friday.

 

CHOPPY MARKETS:  Until we get some moves that begin to trend higher, it is difficult to make  (& keep) Money in these choppy markets.   The General Markets & Oil have experienced a pretty severe sell off, so we’ll see how they shape up after putting in an ICL, but I think that the general markets are only having a short term bounce here.   The good news is that after extreme sell offs, we can get some nice bases that form and some better set ups to trade. We may get that with the energy stocks over time.

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I know that even though Monday did not damage Gold or the Miners charts,  it is just another day that has passed without any upside gains for those positioned long. It looks as though price may be re-visiting the 50 sma, so we are getting more of the choppiness or sideways chop that has just been boring and uneventful.  Eventually we will be able to trade this sector with better gains, and I do think that it is setting up for a good run in the future, and the General Markets may be topping & dropping over time.  The waiting is the hard part and if Miners cant rally higher from there, we will likely see more of the same chop and even a drop into the future ICL may begin.

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Just remember that we are getting later on in this intermediate cycle, so a higher ICL is possible, or a drop into one is possible too ( 2 charts below).  We are basically stuck in the middle of a move and stuck in the middle of a price range right now.  It Can go either way.  Use stops.

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THE BULL VERSION- bounce off of the 50sma

 

THE BEARISH VERSION OF A DROP TO THE NEXT ICL- Maybe 1 more daily cycle after this one dropped.

 

From the weekend report.  I would probably try JDST or DUST on a break down like this.  The good news is…

 

The good news is that this is gold as I write currently, and it is trying to break higher from here.   Hopefully this can just break out from here and avoid forming a ‘dome’.   You can watch for that today.  A break to new higher from this dcl would be encouraging.

 

NOTE:  I am long Miners with leverage, but I also have my positions smaller than normal at this point and I have cash on the side, until this choppiness and lack of clarity clears up.   CASH IS GOOD IN CHOPPY TIMES.   It is difficult to make money in choppy markets, and for some, it is hard for them to relax and enjoy the markets if things are bouncing up & down & up & down.  That said,  I DO GET REQUESTS FOR  “A FEW TRADE IDEAS”.   I will put some below, but they may or may not suit your trading needs.  DO not hesitate to hold a good amount of cash until things settle down, if that fits your style best.   Sleeping at night is rewarding too  🙂

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Enjoy your Tuesday trading!

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~ALEX 

 

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   For those that want a trade idea.   MARKETS HAVE BEEN CHOPPY, and even good trade set ups have struggled, but I do get requests for me to look for a trade set up or two to toy with.  So…Some Solar stocks have been trending higher, others seem to be moving off of their bases.  A few Popped yesterday, so lets look at a couple of Solar stocks.

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JKS ran from about $7 to $11 and pulled back recently.  Monday it broke above the 50sma with high volume.  I actually think that it could run to the 200sma, but I didn’t buy it.  It could just run straight higher, but I think that by now You know that this could also ‘flag’ sideways, drop to back test the 50sma, & even  fill that gap before moving higher.   So it would become  choppy & difficult under current market conditions too.

 

RGSE –  We have discussed RGSE and it is climbing steadily out of a base.  It has actually doubled in November.

 

 

THOSE SOLAR STOCKS HAVE ME WATCHING THESE 2:

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ENPH – This company is solar based  and has worked to stabilize itself above the 200sma.   Since the sector is acting bullishly, it could be bought with a stop at the 200sma.  Notice how choppy it has been though-  Nothing is riding easily lately.

 

RUN –  This solar stock also looks very choppy , but is bullishly set up and could break out.  Again, it has been VERY CHOPPY.  If you bought this in October,  you have gone no where, but if it breaks out it may finally start trending higher. What a solid run it has in early 2018 when it started trending –  $5 to $16.!

 

 

LGCY – LGCY Popped.   Honestly, I do not ‘LOVE’ this set up, but I bought it when it crossed the 10sma just for a trade.  It could just get choppy, and I’ll dump it if it does.   It may be good for a trade, first to the blue line, then the moving averages. I’ll take it step by step and look for signs along the way.   I DO WANT TO MENTION SOMETHING…

LGCY – I used to post long term charts of LGCY,  we originally bought it in the base and  I liked it long term.  This is the last long term chart that I posted in September, and it was still  very nice.   Has this changed?

 

LGCY – Yes, this has changed.   It broke down and I don’t like it as long as it remains broken,  so my Monday purchase  IS JUST A SHORT TERM TRADE.   It may run higher to back test this break down and roll over again.

 

 

MCF –  Some energy stocks seem to be setting up,  but they are still recovering from a severe downdraft. I’m watching MCF but …

 

MCF – This also was a good uptrend that has now broken down.  It has resistance if it gets back up to the channels lower trend line, the 200sma, etc ,  SO I AM SHOWING YOU THIS to point out the damage that has been done in the recent selling in many stocks…

 

I was saying weeks ago that I expected some good bargains & ‘good set ups’ in Oil & Energy stocks after the OIL ICL is in place.   Well, now I have been watching the big picture become damaged more recently too, so I will really have to see how this plays out going forward.  Oils sell off was very severe, and damage is showing up in the big picture.

NOG –  NOG is not too bad in the big picture if you draw a trend line at the lows from 2017 to now.  It could recover quickly if Oil does,  so I am looking for set ups that did not become broken,  maybe ones that just got a bit ‘overdone’.

 

LLEX – There are several short term set ups that I do Like, as seen here with LLEX.  With Oil still at the lows, these set ups may just produce a short term bounce to the 50sma before starting a basing process after that bounce.   Most things look short term & possibly choppy at this point.