Thar She Blows Matey!!!
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Thar she blows is right!
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GOLD – We have been expecting this kind of ‘recognition day ‘ for a while, so Let’s discuss this BURST higher in Gold and Miners…
GOLD climbed $28 on Thursday, and it was pretty much steady and straight up.
EDIT for the comments section: I need to help a neighbor cut 3 trees down this a.m., no time for a proof read this morning. Please ignore typos, and I will be back in 2 hrs?
1 note – If Gold takes off higher after 8:30 Eastern time, and I think it could , it will leave people behind, ‘waiting to buy a pull back’. Most here should be in, we have seen an inverse H&S on Miners for weeks, stops not violated.
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After a quick look at the Markets, we will discuss the Precious Metals further. The Markets are still selling off.
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QQQ #1 – There was an intraday reversal after breaking the 200sma. Was it a shake out?
QQQ – Not yet. QQQ sold off after that reversal and closed below the 200sma. Let me show you something else that catches my eye…
SOX – Look at the 200sma for the Semiconductor sector. This has a choppy toppy formation and sold below the 200sma a week ago. If you look at a close up, and you’ll see that the SOX has closed below the 200sma for 6 days. IS THIS A MARKET TOPPING AND SEMIs ARE LEADING? WE WILL WATCH FOR THIS OVER TIME.
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It is the last trading day of the week, so lets discuss precious metals! I will TRY to be brief and to the point…
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GOLD – Explosive move higher, breaks above the consolidation, 50sma, and prior highs. I’d expect Gold to run to the 200sma shortly over time.
USD – We have a swing high. If this keeps dropping, Gold can keep Popping. This is only day 14 for the USD, this can keep dropping.
GOLDS BASE – Gold is breaking from this base. Let me show you what I told my readers in 2016…
ABX 2016 – In my Feb 2 2016 report, I said that these BASES are often explosive, no need to over trade them, BUY & HOLD, it could rise as quickly as it fell on the left side of the chart. read the chart.
ABX – AND WE GOT THIS, ABX climbed higher as quickly as it fell on the downside. So GOLD is breaking out of a base too. ABX had a huge base & a huge run. Golds base is smaller, but we should run to the highs.
The CURRENT GOLDS BASE – WE CAN Break out & back test the break or 50sma, so please know that you may see this ( I drew this in on our current base as a visual example). Thi also can just go straight up.
A REAL LIFE EXAMPLE – I have showed this chart so many times, but we tend to forget on our first down day, so look at this chart of 2008 ICL. After a long base, IT POPPED ABOVE THE 50SMA, and then….. Dropped back down for a shake out. So…
2008 GOLDS BASE –
1. The Base formed & kept buyers nervous – sound familiar?
2. It POPPED above the 50sma – sound familiar?
3. It dropped back below the 50sma – how would our ‘comments’ section look?
4. Even with that drop, the Lows were in and GOLD ran from lows below $700 to $1900+
5. Miners doubled, tripled, quadrupled
LET THE ABOVE CHARTS GUIDE YOUR EMOTIONS, JUST IN CASE IT GETS CHOPPY. THIS MAY JUST RUN STRAIGHT UP UP AND AWAY, BUT DO NOT LET THE PULL BACKS BOTHER YOU UNLESS THE LOWS ARE TAKEN OUT.
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MINERS – LET’s KEEP THIS SHORT AND SIMPLE
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GDX#1 -10 a.m. I posted this as a BULLISH break above the 50sma in the comments section yesterday. Arrows point out Bullish features. As I have been pointing out faily, We have crawled under the 50sma for 7 days, waiting for this break, and it is an inverse H&S. BULLISH.
GDX – This was captured before Noon and the rise was accelerating. Volume is excellent. I EXPECT THIS TO RUN TO THE 200 SMA FOR STARTS, as an inverse H&S break out. SO TRY NOT TO WORRY IF…
GDX – SO TRY NOT TO WORRY IF … we get a ‘back test’ along the way. Be patient if we do, however, I do think that this could actually be a straight line run higher. That is how the majority would get left behind, planning to buy a dip that never comes.
GDX – So we could simply see this. Someday you will look back on this chart and think that this was THE EASIEST SET UP to buy, right? It looks easy in hindsight, right? Go read the comments section of my reports 2 or 3 days ago. 🙂
GDX WEEKLY BIG PICTURE– Usually saved for the weekend report, I thought that the BIG PICTURE would help you to see the potential. Look at the DEC 2016 ICL in the Box. 8 weeks of gains from the weekly oversold ICL.
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MINERS
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I mentioned ABX , GG, SBGL, AU, and several others in more recent reports. Let’s see the progress.
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ABX – Yesterdays report – It was holding up above the 50sma on Golds drops
ABX – the 200 sma was not a problem. ABX moving higher will help GDX.
GG- Read this chart from Oct 8, read what I wrote on the chart. These reversals can be a low risk buy with a tight stop…
GG – That reversal was The lows, and GG is attacking the 50sma with Big Volume. GG moving higher will help GDX
NEM – Sliced through the 50sma, and NEM higher will help GDX.
So as seen above, GG, ABX, and NEM ( And many other Miners) are popping out of their bases and taking out the 50sma without a problem.
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Let’s just run through a few more charts of Miners, and you’ll see that we had a Bullish reaction and bullish set ups in the entire sector.
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KL – The drop in KL, which has had an excellent run, was a normal tag of the 200sma. It is now on its way higher, slicing back above the 50sma.
SBGL – Yesterday I mentioned that I Bought SBGL, I liked the round base and how it was holding up above the 50sma. It popped 13.57% yesterday. It is at the 200sma, so it MIGHT crawl down the 200 & may even fill that gap. I will add if it does. It also could break above & back test it later.
GFI – I actually said that I liked this set up 2 days ago, but I did not buy it. It broke out & ended the day with almost 11 million in volume. It is still a buy.
AG – AG started breaking out and I captured this for a friend Midday. I thought it would stall at the 200sma, but…this kept rising and closed at $6.22, a little under the 200sma. This could also slice right through it if GOLD & SILVER push higher.
GORO – I bought this Thursday morning and posted it. I like that the 200sma is already RISING, and the 50 will now curl up . This ran very well out of the last ICL, and is a bullish set up.
GORO – Another view, $5 to over $7 should be fairly easy.
HL – I also bought HL I like the rising MACD and I think that this will break out higher too. It is a Silver stock still within its base.
TRX – I have bought TRX in or at its base in the past couple of runs.I like the potential, so I Bought this Thursday.
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And finally, I had to show this one
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FSM – FSM released earnings yesterday and sold off in disappointment as they missed their expectations. It was then bought all the way back up in the same day. THAT is a big reversal day. If this can break above the 50sma, it will break the recent downtrend.
SO as a BASIC summary:
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We have been waiting for GOLD to give us some upside satisfaction. I have discussed the Bullish COT, GDX : GOLD, several Bullish Miners leading higher, an inverse H&S in Miners, the price CRAWLING under the 50sma, ICL timing , 2008 ICL similarities, 2015 ICL similarities, Bases, etc , etc, etc , to show that things were lined up. We just needed confirmation.
Thursday we FINALLY got an explosive move higher out of that base, seen here.
MINERS FOLLOWED THROUGH, AND MANY ARE BULLISHLY SET UP
I would love to see some Friday follow through, but whether or not that happens, this sector looks very bullish now.
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Enjoy your Friday trading!
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~ALEX
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UUUU – This has been a rough ride, but in September it also broke below the 50sma, closed below it, and recovered. I think that UUUU is still and inverse H&S set up to break higher, BUT KEEP AN EYE ON IT OF YOU OWN IT. I wouldn’t allow it to drop too far without getting concerned that something has changed ( maybe $3)
