Wednesday September 12th
I have been expecting a drop into a dcl, and an ICL, but in Tuesdays report we discussed the unexpected break out of the TRAN with this chart. So that being said..
NASDAQ – From yesterday, and I stated that the 50sma has supported price, and I wanted to see what happens at the 50sma for the NASDAQ, surprises do come to the upside in a bull market…
QQQ – I posted this reversal above the 50sma in the comments section yesterday at 11 a.m., and mentioned that buying the TQQQ here is low risk, simply because you can place a tight stop right at the 50sma if the drop into a dcl continues. It could. So far, each run off of the 50sma is providing decent gains and then drops back down. It could definitely be worth a run.
NASDAQ – I was watching the NASDAQ at the 50sma, and so far it didn’t even reach the 50sma before it put in a good reversal.
SPX – SPX is still below the 10sma, so we’ll see if it breaks higher on Wednesday. Now I have to wonder if Mid Aug was a DCL ( it looked more like a 1/2 cycle low to me), and that would make this dip a 1/2 cycle low with another bounce higher.
So we’ll see how this plays out, it could be that the markets make another run higher . Anyone wanting to take a short term trade here can & should use a tight stop. Some Tech stocks like SAIL, SQ, AMZN ( Could be a buy right here with the reversal), look bullish, but many others look to be breaking down ( MU, CY, GOOG, TWTR, FB, and more) , so it is a mixed picture. This may just be a short term bounce.
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WTIC – OIL Popped bullishly higher Tuesday. I do not know what caused this, but this looks bullish. Oil inventory is either going to add fuel to this fire up, or kill it. Wednesday morning is that inventory report.
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XLE – This still looks weak, it broke below the 50sma and broke a trend line & back tested both. I mentioned a ‘drip’ trade, and XLE recovering the 50sma definitely ends that trade. Maybe even recovering the 10sma is a good enough warning sign to step aside and watch it for eakness or strength. In an OIL ICL sell off , I would have expected this to drop to April lows after this back test (And it still may).
USD – The USD has a peak on day 4 so far, and it remains left translated if it stays under $95.75. It is holding above the 50sma. We are on day 9.
GOLD – Gold dropped Tuesday Morning, but recovered. Was THIS a 1/2 cycle low for Gold? Time will tell, we are on day 18 for Gold. We want to see a push above the day 8 highs to make this R.T.
GDXJ – This reversal is not a ‘buy’ all by itself, but it looks encouraging. If this was a final daily cycle in this intermediate cycle, it is now L.T. We saw a good size gap down Tuesday that recovered by the end of the day. Divergence is also present, we’ll look for follow through higher Wednesday. I want to look at a few individual miners again…
GG – This also has divergence and reversed after gapping down.
SBGL – SBGL & HMY have been leading off of the lows. This bottomed almost 1 month ago and bounced bullishly off of the 50sma. SBGL is a buy using technical analysis.
HMY – Using technical analysis, HMY was a buy on the 50sma 5 days ago and is still holding up. I pointed it out then, but there was still risk of getting stopped out. So far, this remains a leader after a capitulation low.
ASM – Double bottom with good divergence.
ALO – This is a lottery ticket, and the set up favors a run higher soon. ALO has been beaten down and capitulated to death. I have seen this happen in the past and it looks absolutely sick & ugly, and then it doubles shortly after. I will show you that…
AKG DROP SIMILAR TO ALO – Last December I remember when ASANKO was thrown away like trash, and then after the DEC ICL, it doubled.
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I am starting to see many Miners that look like they are ‘setting up’ bullishly, but most need to prove themselves. If Gold sells down to test the lows, they could continue to chop & meander.
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The General Markets do look set up to bounce here, so that may have been a 1/2 cycle low. The current reversal could be considered a lower risk ‘long’ with support right below price. A tight stop can be used. I ran through a good number of Tech Stocks and some also remained very bullish near the highs, ( see charts of SQ, SAIL, and COUP), while others have become unhealthy looking, so I don’t have any individual stock recommendations at this time, except for TQQQ at the 50sma for a quick trade? Traders may find shorter term trades, but for others it may require patience for a good set up in individual stocks.
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OIL actually popped higher Tuesday too, and WEDNESDAY is the inventory report, so we’ll see what OIL wants to do. The XLE is still at its lows, but it did reverse yesterday. If it recovers, that drip trade would be cut short.
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And then there are the Precious Metals. Gold dropped at the open and then reversed higher, and so did the Miners, but they are still currently at the lows. Since they gapped down and reversed higher on Tuesday morning, we’ll see if they can they get any follow through higher, especially to break above the down trend lines and 10sma? We could get BUY opportunities in individual Miners if we see improvement. Time will tell.
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Enjoy your Wednesday trading!
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~ALEX
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Just a few more MJ stocks – these have been exploding higher and have been very rewarding for those able to trade them. They are acting exactly as a bullish set up should, which makes them rather predictable so far.
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TGODF – This was a buy on Monday, but it dropped to red Tuesday at the open. I posted this Tuesday as it reversed. It was only up 1% here, but I believe that this will run to former highs at least, and…
TGODF – It closed up 8%.
CBWTF – I posted a few charts of CBWTF as possibly ready to go. It was up 10%, but has a LOT more upside as seen here…
CBWTF – It was up about 20%. I am showing you this so that you will have confidence in the set ups. Now lets look at some set ups…
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ACBFF #1 – I posted this last week and at 10 a.m. in the comments yesterday as a buy. Support held at the 50sma, and this showed the a-b = c-d type anticipated run.
ACBFF #2 – And it closed up 10% yesterday, but the long term chart below shows that it potentially has a good size run ahead of it, barring any bad news. These 10% pops are often just the beginning.
ACBFF #3 – I think that ACBFF has great potential based on this chart. I look at this and I see a set up that is similar to my APHQF trade.
APHQF – This was an awesome trade, it is completing that move to prior highs. If ACBFF , CANN, CBWTF, and others can do that, the gains are great.
NXTTF – This has a similar pattern, the run to former highs out of a nice base. This was recommended at $1.15 – $1.20.
VVCIF – I also think that VVCIF is getting ready to run higher.
VVCIF – I posted this base in August, since then it has consolidated this strong 20% push higher.
CNAB – Getting ready to go?
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WHAT ABOUT WHEN TO SELL!!!???
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I sold early here. I bought NXTTF as it broke above the 50sma down near $1.15, and I saw the potential as at least around $3.00, so I posted this chart. I shouldn’t sell if it is running to $3, right? Well, I thought that the climb was getting too steep after posting this, so I sold 1/2 near the $2.25 resistance (yellow bar). Then I even sold the rest as it moved under $2.50, but…
NXTFF – IT JUST KEEPS GOING. I do not know exactly when to sell these. I always go in heavy at support, when they start breaking with volume, and sell on the way up. This DOES look like it is just going right to $3+ and maybe even more. These Bases offer GREAT gains on the run higher.
OGRMF AUGUST 21 – Bouncing off of the 200sma was a buy on support, and you can see that these act correctly using tech analysis. This break above the 50 & a down trend was also a buy at $4
OGRMF – Here it is near $6. It looks extended, but these do just continue higher. I dont know exactly when to sell since these over extend, but do lock in some profit. And even if it pulls back, it may consolidate and run again (This did at the end of August, it formed a flag).
There really are so many more to consider ( I am still in GRWG, and VVCIF waiting for the break out ), but there are too many to post here. I tried to feature a couple that I think have future potential, and also show you how past calls have worked out, so that you can gain confidence in this sector. These are NOT as easy to ride as they look. They move up 10 – 20 % in a day, but also can pull back 10 % in a day. It may be best to keep positions small, but I do enter fairly heavily if the stock is at support in the base and I catch it real time showing bullish signs of breaking out higher.
TGB – I mentioned CLF and SHLO the other day, and m watching other stocks in the METALS area. They also may be shaping up for future opportunities, possibly with a USD drop.
