Thursday August 30
Let’s discuss the current set up in various market sectors.
SPX – We have a break out to all time highs in the SPX. We are actually due for an ICL, so how should we view this? I have mentioned trade ideas for TNX, TQQQ and UPRO with stops ( rising stops), and said that I would be ‘cautiously optimistic’. Let’s look a bit closer…
SPX – You can see ICLs roughly every 6 month ( deeper than normal dips). Our last one was February, so we are due. Here I am pointing out that in 2017, we did have a period of strength after a consolidation break out where a real discernible dip could not be found for about a year. The 10 weekly ma was hardly broken, right? So this is why we can be ‘cautiously optimistic’ about going higher and use a trailing stop. That said, we are due for a dip.
NASDAQ – The NASDAQ broke out to new highs last week too, so a trailing stop would be best for a TQQQ trade. This looked like a bearish rising wedge, but it broke higher, so let’s look at the Long term chart of the NASDAQ too.
NASDAQ – You see the deeper dips until the run of 2017 too. It then Barely broke the 10 Weekly ma for most of the run too.
BY REQUEST: Is the TNA trade still acting correctly?
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IWM (RUT) AUG 14 – TNA was a ‘buy’, even before it broke from this pattern, because it was easy to buy with a tight stop.
TNA – As it broke out, we looked at a possible decent run higher
TNA – This trade is still doing well. I personally did not take this trade, I focused on Miners and MJ stocks, but so far this run is acting correctly.
LABU – The LABU trade is still following through too. At this point, his MIGHT crawl along the trend line or it might just break out higher, but I still like the upside potential here.
WTIC – Oil broke above the 50sma on Wednesday. Due for an ICL, and with the last daily cycle being very L.T., I would expect this to also peak as a L.T. Daily and then break the recent lows into an ICL. The JUNE run looked very convincingly strong, but rolled over after day 11. I am not going long or short here. Visually, we may form a right shoulder here.
USD– The USD is due for a dcl too. That does NOT mean that it will rally to new highs, it means that it is due for a bounce, and I expect the USD to eventually roll over. We have a weekly swing high in place too.
GOLD – Gold is on day 9, it broke the down trend and remains above the 10sma.
GOLD – Closing below the 10sma does NOT make an ICL invalid, we saw that happen a few times after the 2015 ICL was in place.
GDX – We are at Day 9 in the Miners too, and it is a bit choppy, not a v-bottom.
GDXJ– The 10sma is turning higher.
I have pointed out quite a few ‘stock picks’ for trades or possibly some ‘buy & hold’ swing trades with a stop, so today I just wanted to update us on the Market set ups and current condition of the different sectors.
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Enjoy your Thursday trading.
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~ALEX
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The MJ Sector: The News & Earnings releases have been showing Excellent growth and opportunities. Double & Tripling revenue is often rewarded by Wall Street, and this sector is being rewarded.
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APHQF – After a strong run higher, many MJ stocks also experienced a sharp pullback on Tuesday. Wednesday saw the sector burst higher again and erase losses in many of these stocks ( See CGC, CRON, APHQF, etc). NOT AN EASY RIDE. Is this now going to be an easy ride, straight up to $20 from here?
APHQF – A reminder of a chart I posted yesterday. These can drop again and form bull flags, so we’ll see how this sector plays out Thursday & Friday.
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2 Recent OGRMF Charts form reports – A buy at $4 and a chart showing the Big Picture bullishness.
OGRMF Aug 23– Pushing higher toward all time highs.
OGRMF NOW– A nice break out took place Wednesday. I usually take some $$ off the table and let the rest ride.
VVCIF – I mentioned that I bought this in the comments in the morning. I had a small starter position after Tammie mentioned it one day, but now Volume was very big in just the first 15 minutes. It was $1.18 and inside of a base.
VVCIF – It ran up 17.50 % and volume was very big for this one. This is a nice base and I would expect that it can run a lot higher over time. This may not be an easy ride at times, but…
VVCIF – This is what I am looking at. The Big Picture shows that if it can run to former highs over time, it would basically more than triple from Aug lows. The Big Pic also shows that in Aug – Jan it was not straight up, it was a tough ride.
TGODF – I own this one too, for the same set up. It broke out from the base last Friday and I bought it then. I captured this chart at 9:42 a.m.as it held the 10sma. I Still like this set up, and it closed up 18 cents, volume was 1/2 million.
