Friday August 31 –
SPX – The SPX broke out above the upper trend line, but dropped back down on Thursday. We see a gap & the 10sma below, these could be initial targets, so let’s see how things play out.
Reminder: General Markets are within the timing for a drop into an ICL, so we could start dropping down ot topping here.
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NASDAQ – For weeks I was watching a bearish rising wedge here and the NASDAQ broke out above it, but the highs or ‘peaks’ of Jan and March and lows of Feb and April do form a channel in Blue. The NASDAQ has now tagged that upper blue channel line.
DJIA – The DOW has not broken to new all time highs, but it reversed at the upper trend line too.
The Sectors of the general market have formed unconfirmed swing highs at resistance lines.
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LABU – Meanwhile LABU broke out from the down trend and continues higher.
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JUST THE FACTS
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PRECIOUS METALS : NO FEAR, NO GREED, JUST FACT
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LEAVE EMOTIONS AT THE DOOR
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GOLD – GOLD bounced off of the 10sma. Is this a ‘horrible’ looking chart? So far Golds lows are still in place, in fact, price is $40 above the lows.
GOLD – The down channel has been broken to the upside and price remains above it. This is not scary to most. Gold is still $40 off of the lows.
GLD – I was away from the screen yesterday and when I read the comments section at the end of the day, people were depressed, afraid, Gold was down, we don’t have an ICL, it’ll never come, etc. etc. I quickly looked up GLD thinking that GOLD must be down $30 & took out the lows?? … Nope, it was bouncing off of the 10sma. Gold is $40 off of the lows.
CAN IT BREAK THE 10 sma AND STILL BE AN ICL?
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WE ALREADY DISCUSSED THAT TOO. IT CAN AND HAS BROKEN BELOW THE 10sma IN THE PAST FOR WEEKS, yet it was an ICL.
Do you remember this chart that I put in my report last week? It showed a possible drop back to the lows as 1-2-3-4-5. That was acceptable then, but not now? If Fear & Greed are affecting your trading, maybe your positions are too heavy for your style? Gold is currently $40 above the lows.
*FRIENDS, If Thursdays drop had you depressed, in fear, and panicked, etc- LIGHTEN UP ON YOUR POSITIONS or step aside, you should not be trying to buy at an ICL bottom. Did I mention that Gold is still $40 above the lows. Your style may be the easier trade, to ride a trend after the lows are in place. There was nothing unusual Thursday. Actually we could even go lower all next week, since Gold is $40 above the lows. As long as the lows aren’t broken, you can still have an ICL. The comments section was scaring everyone. Unfortunately, Fear breads fear. You may wish to limit your reading of the comments, things are not always as they appear to be, based on what others are saying 🙂
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*NOTE: I POSTED THIS ABOUT MINERS DAYS AGO- YES THIS GAP COULD FILL. GOLDS ICL may hold & Miners may even slightly break lows in a ‘shake out’. We don’t know.
GDX – THIS WAS GDX AS OF THE CLOSE THURSDAY. This caused Panic, Fear, and dread pertaining to GOLD? GOLD is $40 above the lows. Maybe some here (NOT ALL) should Lighten their position on a bounce if it affected then emotionally. You do not have to buy at the lows, and yes, we could go lower. Buying near a choppy bottom is not easy for everyone. The 10sma gave way, but selling volume was light, less than 1/2 of the capitulation lows.
I have repeatedly mentioned that all bottoms are not the same.
HUI ICLs – SO I WILL POINT IT OUT AGAIN. AFTER THE ICL OF 2008, 2009, 2010, PRICE DROPPED BACK TOWARD LOWS IN MANY CASES. It stalled for days. People were afraid. THAT IS NOT UNCOMMON. Look at 2008! LETS TAKE A CLOSER LOOK…
AT THE HUI 2008 ICL – We had a day 8 peak (Sound familiar). It dropped all the way to day 19 & almost broke the IC lows, and then took off. THE ICL was in place, because the lows were not taken out, but look how close it was.
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GDX NOW VS 2008 ICL
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GDX NOW & HUI 2008 – If Someone cannot ride the current higher lows, how would one handle a test of the lows like 2008? IT CAN HAPPEN AGAIN.
COULD YOU HANDLE THIS? A strong bounce on day 14 & then it dropped again.
GDX LOWS OF NOV ICL 2016 were similar–
Daily cycle 1 was not a Straight shot higher, it was a Choppy bottoming process too. If you cannot handle choppiness, please get out until GOLD is trending above the 50sma. Use a weekly chart above the 10 ma, and not a daily.
HUI FEB ICL 2010 – Again with a day 8 ‘peak’ it dropped to day 13 and THEN went higher. THIS WAS A CHOPPY ICL, AND NOT EASY TO RIDE.
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Review: If Gold dips down today, it does not mean that we do not have an ICL as long as GOLD does not take out the lows. GOLD IS $40 above the lows. You still have a choice. Step aside and wait for a weekly buy signal if this trade makes you emotional, or please cut your position size.
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Meanwhile, what has really changed? I have posted every one of these charts above in past reports saying “All bottoms are not the same”. Emotions are affecting people and ‘Fear Breeds Fear’ in the comments section. Be careful who you listen to.
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Currently we have a DCL confirmed, likely an ICL in place in Gold. The ICL is in place unless the lows are taken out, I don’t care if day 22 is back sightly above the lows, if they don’t break, that DCL is still viewed as an ICL. Gold can drop all the way back down to the ICL, but it is an ICL until it isn’t. Gold is currently $40 above the lows.
Why is it likely an ICL?
1. The last GOLD ICL was December, so time-wise we are over due.
2. MINERS had an ICL in Feb, and they due for an ICL too, but they ‘could’ do a shake out low, even if Golds ICL lows hold. I wouldn’t count that out, but I think it would be very short lived if the GOLD ICL lows are not taken out.
3. We seem to have had capitulation into the final lows in Gold & Miners.
4. Choppiness is common & acceptable, unless lows are broken.
5. Trade according to your comfort level, and if you are “Loaded up” and cant take the wiggles, do something about it. Don’t let ‘Fear of missing out’ freeze you into your position if you are unhappy. Don’t let fear of a drop make you depressed. Control your own trades, they are as adjustable as your emotions.
6. I am invested. I have a stop. I am not affected by ups & downs, because I realize that this is how the trade works – until the stops are taken out in Gold, this is an ICL. If it is broken, I am out and need to review it.
7. I am NOT saying that this recent Gold Low cannot fail, but if it is the ICL, it will hold. The ‘trade set up’ is what it is, and it is still in tact despite wiggles. It is an ICL unless the lows are taken out. We are not at the lows in Gold as of the time that I am writing this report. Gold is still $40 above the lows…
These, are just the facts.
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~ ALEX
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MU – Even though the General markets broke higher and dropped back Thursday, some TECH stocks still remained Bullish. MU is one for example. If it holds above the 50sma & moves higher, it could be bought with a stop under the 50sma ( or 10sma), but if the General Markets sell down, this may be a fake break out.
TRX – This is a junior Miner at the lows, but the divergence looks bullish. Don’t buy it, I’m just pointing out a junior Gold Miner after a day of gold selling that looks to be ‘setting up’ as a future buy. There are others that seem to be fine too.
TRXC AUG 22– A BUY under $5, at the 50sma. It also was ready to break the trend line…
TRXC – At $5.80 it is still bullish also
