WEEKEND JULY 28 – Please Hold
SPX WEEKLY – I have been discussing the timing on a daily chart, and feel that we are due to drop soon, into a dcl. This may be the short term top.
Think about it: We just printed the best GDP #’s in years, and all of the markets ran up and then reversed, dropping into the close Friday. We are also seeing the Big Fang companies report their earnings, and we’ll discuss that in a minute too, but massive winners popped up & sold off. Recall that my July 25th report was entitled “Beautiful At The Top”. It seems contrary to believe so, but when all the news is nothing but bullish and positive – that is often when a top forms. When all the news is bearish and ugly and fearful, that is when the Lows form. Let’s continue…
NASDAQ – So the NASDAQ formed a reversal candle too, even though AMZN and GOOG reported excellent results. Everyone is talking about this Bull market and the coming big rally, but I have been saying that around day 15 of this daily cycle, it would be ‘time’ to pay attention to what the markets are trying to tell us. I have been paying attention at this time, and these Markets are telling me that they may be topping here.
IWM ( RUT) – The Russell 2000 was leading the way in May & June, and now they may be leading the way again, down. I see RSI divergence at that recent top. A channel and the 50weekly MA are possible targets.
AMZN – AMZN crushed expectation Thursday evening, and then gapped up almost $100 Friday morning. It then sold off into a reversal. Look at the MACD. Did the smart money sell on the gap open?
GOOG – This was the headline “Alphabet Earnings Demolish Expectations”, and it also gapped up and ran higher by $70+ points this week. I warned that it could sell off over time, and not to chase it. Friday it sold off and formed a possible bearish engulfing.
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THOSE WERE THE EARNINGS ‘WINNERS’
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FB WEEKLY – FB missed and got crushed, down 20% Thursday alone. This is a weekly chart, it took back almost 12 weeks of gains instantly, overnight! It gapped down that much.
FB DAILY – No chance to get out if you didn’t sell before earnings
TWTR – Another Miss, 15-20% down overnight.
NFLX reported and tanked too. So the Big winners are gapping open and selling off, the ones that miss are being crushed. No love anymore, as they are seeing the big investors bail out after hrs. 3 weeks ago I was saying at the start of the daily cycle that ‘by day 15 we should take a look at how the General Markets were fairing’, and we would make adjustments. I think we are seeing solid signs of a topping action to this daily cycle.
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WTIC DAILY on JULY 17 – I expected a bounce, but further downside. Tht was probably a 1/2 cycle low.
WTIC DAILY – We have our bounce, is that a bear flag? I still think Oil is going to drop further too.
WTIC WKLY – On a Weekly chart we are in a channel and at the lows, but it can drop to back test the red break out.
USD WEEKLY – I used this chart to show several resistance areas. The USD chart DOES look bullish, but I expect this daily cycle to roll over & change that, especially at this resistance point.
USD DAILY- This highlights the RSI & MACD weakness on the climb
PRECIOUS METALS
GOLD COT– This is VERY BULLISH for an ICL to form in Gold. Smart money has closed large short positions and the so called ‘dumb money’ has sold their longs into the lows.
GOLD WKLY – The ‘Time’ for an ICL is here. Note: The DEC 2016 ICL ran to July 2017. Are you tired of waiting for it? I am just as tired of waiting for it, because I also have to discuss it every day 🙁 They are very rewarding when they finally do arrive. I can’t wait to discuss the rally that comes out of these lows. Look at the prior 3 ICL rallies. I am so ready for that.
SILVER WEEKLY – Shake out or false break down is likely.
GDX WEEKLY – When we say that the Miners, once resisting Golds sell off, has now started to sell off too, it feels worse than it looks. This weekly chart is by no means ugly. It is now finally oversold on the stochastics too.
BULLISH OR BEARISH?– So if I hid the name and showed this chart to someone, they would say that this is a bullish set up. This is a weekly chart of GDXJ.
1. So my expectations for the General Markets, despite a very bullish GDP, super bullish news about the economy & unemployment, and some record Big Name earnings beats has been that we could be heading for a sell off after 15 days out of the dcl. That has not changed.
2. I expected OIL to sell off, bounce, and sell off again. That has not changed.
3. The USD has been hitting resistance overhead. Honestly? I think that the WEEKLY USD chart actually looks bullish, but due to ‘cycle timing’ and that strong overhead resistance, I still expect it to drop. That would be bullish for Gold…
4. And for GOLD, SILVER, and MINERS? The ‘timing’ is now, The selling has certainly been deep. The COT & BLEES are Very Bullish. Some Miners are still resisting Golds selling, though some earnings reports are taking down some Miners now too.
We can discuss that briefly too…
AUY – AUY shot up over 10% with their earnings release
NEM– NEM also shot up & broke out, so we do have some good news on the precious metals earnings. We also saw some Misses in NGD, GG, ABX, however…
ABX -ABX ( I accidentally wrote AEM on the chart- this is ABX) sold off to the prior lows, broke them on Thursday, and pulled a reversal high volume on Friday. That could be a shake out, it is too early to tell. This sell off looks similar in steepness to the last sell off on the left of the chart. That sell off recovered quickly, so this one could too, when Golds ICL is confirmed and a rally begins.
We are due or even overdue for an ICL in Gold. The lows were NOT taken out in Gold, so we may have an ICL in place for Gold as we bounce around down here. We should know soon enough. We will be watching to see what happens next week, but so far things are still playing out as expected, with the exception of the fact that the USD & Precious Metals are definitely taking a bit longer than expected. After signing off, I have 6 more charts of interest below. When I am doing research, I love finding little ‘gems’ inside of charts, and these are a few ‘Gems’ that are encouraging too. 🙂
Enjoy the rest of your weekend!
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~ALEX
WHAT CAN I SHOW YOU THAT I HAVEN’T PRESENTED YET? I’M RUNNING OUT OF IDEAS SINCE THIS SELL OFF IS TAKING SO LONG. I FEEL LIKE WE’VE COVERED IT ALL. 🙂 …
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PLATINUM WEEKLY – The chart movement is different, but Platinum often puts in an ICL around the same time as Golds ICL. It looks to have bottomed here. Let me zoom in on a daily too …
PLATINUM DAILY – This looks like a double bottom with divergence, at the same time that GOLD bottomed.
THE YEN – I wrote a special piece in a prior report showing how The YEN & GOLD are often very closely correlated. The YEN also appears to have put in a low here.It bounced like this in May though, so we need further upside confirmation, but that is a good start.
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NOW LET ME SHOW YOU SOME REAL GEMS. I WANT TO TAKE A LOOK AT THE STRONG BULL RUN IN THE SOX. THESE ARE ENCOURAGING CHARTS IN MY OPINION.
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SOX – Look at 1. The famous Tech Parabolic Ramp up of 1999. 2. Then the crash & consolidation. Now look at #3 – That long 2 year triangle consolidation. The rally from that long boring sideways triangle was excellent. Really take a good look at that part of the chart. #3 was a run up out from the lows, then a triangle consolidation , and a strong ramp up…
GDX & HUI CHARTS – These are Miners GDX & HUI. After
1. A rally to the top & 2. a Crash & consolidation drops into a deep low. #3 A move higher out of the lows was strong, and then a triangle consolidation formed. DO you see where I am going with this? Really look at the triangle consolidations in both the GDX & HUI on this chart.
GDX ON TOP WITH A TRIANGLE CONSOLIDATION / SOX BELOW IT WITH A TRIANGLE CONSOLIDATION & RUN. 1. Rally From Lows, 2. Triangle consolidation 3. Rally….
THAT is what we are waiting for, THAT kind of a ramp up is what we hope follows this long triangle consolidation. It should rally here, since we will be coming out of an ICL as the APEX of that triangle has formed. If so, it will be well worth the wait!
