Friday July 13th – Almost There
Today is Friday the 13th, the last trading day of the week. No, I am not superstitious, and the things that we have been watching unfold seem to almost be complete. Let’s take a look…
I want to release this at 7:30, so I will proof read it and fix errors after I release it. Thx
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This chart is from over a week ago, expecting a run in the markets
SPX – I have mentioned however that even though I expect a break to new highs, I would think that this will form as L.T., since we are due for a drop into an ICL son. I am looking for signs of weakness as this unfolds, but it was a “Go long and use a trailing stop’.
SQ – So many of our former Tech trades are playing out since the DCL too. It acted as a shake out and they are running to former highs. The 10sma was successful support if you raised your stop there. The MACD is not following on many of these higher yet though, so I remain cautious in the longer term. I have mentioned MAYBE 15 days higher in General Markets and then a L.T. Daily that lasts over 30 days . For now? Ride them with a stop above your buy to at least lock in some gains if they sell down later.
USD – Expecting the USD to top, it is in a topping process. Look at that MACD, it is weaker with each pop so far.
USD – In yesterdays report and in the coming weekend report – The big picture shows the USD at multiple resistance points. It is also overbought on a weekly basis.
GOLD – I was asked, “If Gold closes above the 10sma, and then drops below it, is that a failure. I point to the long bottoming process of Dec ICL 2015 and say No. If it has happened before, it can happen again. GOLD closed above the 10sma & dropped a couple of times.
GOLD – This is Gold as of Friday a.m. Eastern time. The lows are being threatened, so it could do what Gold did on the chart above, and these lows might NOT be broken. The lows were tested for weeks on the chart above, driving people crazy,. Or Gold could break down. Let’s discuss these ideas again…
GOLD – If Gold breaks those recent day 30 lows, this would be the count. At day 37 Friday, we would be very late and a break down & REVERSAL / RECOVERY could be a strong buy point with a stop (A shake out / stop run).
GOLD – Or, it is possible that the lows are in on DAY 30, and we are just testing those lows on day 7, similar to Dec 2015, driving people crazy.
This is not fun, and most ICLs are not easy, but we have an advantage by examining and analyzing what is taking place day after day. Many here work full time and just don’t have time after a long work day to look back at prior ICLS to see what happened, or go through cycle counts, etc. I really hope that these constant reminders are helpful to the majority, and not boring. This Bottoming process in Gold and topping process in the USD has been very tricky and deceiving to many. We have the advantage of breaking it down and understanding the possibilities. Just like Dec 2015- WE ARE CLOSE to a nice rally.
So today is the last trading day of the week. We have been waiting for this bottoming process in Gold and the topping process in the USD to finish up. We’ll see what happens today and then I will have the Big Picture report for the weekend, so …
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Enjoy your Friday trading and enjoy your weekend!
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~ALEX
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GDX – I wanted to point out that at the ICL for Miners in Jan 2016, the final daily cycle was right translated. It does not matter how I count it out . I can use 1 long 40 day daily cycle (red box) , or 2 smaller 20 day daily cycles shown in this count, both ways show a final plunge took place as R.T. and then the rocket took off.
SAME CHART / DIFFERENT THOUGHT – Picture yourself holding some Miners into that Final drop. It is scary, because we dont know when or how it will end, but every ICL leads to a rally that quickly erases the last 5 or so days down. SO…
If we sell down now in GDX like I drew here yesterday, you want to be ready to buy a reversal. You may also wish to review Yesterdays report – the GOLD SECTION
2 RECENT TRADES
HUYA JULY 9th – was a buy as it crossed the 10sma. These move VERY FAST UP & DOWN, so it was only for experienced traders. It crossed the 10sma at $31.75
HUYA -HUYA hit $40 yesterday. It might drop for another buy opportunity
IQ – This was also posted here as a BUY at $31.80 breaking a trend line, or wait for it to cross the 10sma
IQ – Yesterday it crossed that 10sma as a buy at $32. It closed up 10%. These move very fast.
