The Weekend report – The Launching Pad at T Minus (?)

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This is your Big Picture Weekend Report…

 

LET ME START BY SHOWING YOU A MIXED MARKET

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SPX WEEKLY  #1 – The weekly view has a swing high in place. I would expect at least a tag of the 10ma, even though markets tried to bounce this week.

 

SPX WKLY #2- Another view, that bearish wedge.  The markets have been falling to seek out a DCL.  I have been ‘cautiously watching’, because I see bearish rising wedges.  They indicate more downside, even though we got a nice reversal in the DJIA & SPX Friday.   We’ll see what next week holds.

 

DJIA DAILY  – The Dow bounced Friday, and could be at support, but it has been a lot weaker than the Nasdaq & RUT.  The DOW dropped as the Tech Sector ran to new all time highs, so  now The DOW may bounce as the Tech sector drops?  We’ll see, but…

DJIA WEEKLY – The Dow has a swing high on a weekly basis, and lost important weekly support, so we’ll see what happens next week. The MACD actually looks bad.  This CAN drop.

NASDAQ – This is why I say things are mixed.  The SPX is average, the DOW looks weak, and the NASDAQ & RUT have been very strong.  This run may be coming to an end, based on this wedge.

 

RUT – Very strong, but it may be topping too, so I would continue to allow positions to run, but I’m cautious and must have stops. I also like to lock in 1/2 of my gains when I see situations like this.

USD DAILY– A day 5 peak and a swing high, I am expecting a L.T. Daily cycle and so far this could be topping .  The MACD says “a possible double top’ is playing out.

 

USD WEEKLY – Resistance has held the USD down for the 2nd time on a weekly chart. It is overbought and we see a reversal. A DROP here could bottom Gold.

 

WTIC  – On day 4 we had a strong surge in Oil. It looks extremely bullish, but there was 1 thing that seemed odd…

 

XLE– The XLE popped and dropped Friday.  It couldn’t break out on a day when OIL was up over 4%?   THAT is odd.  I looked at many Oil stocks like OAS, WPX, MRO, VLO, DNR, etc .  They do look good, so I will continue to watch this sector this week.

 

THIS WAS MY MAY C.O.T. –  I want to point something out.  This looked Bullish as the ‘Commercials shorts” were closing up.  BUT NOTICE THE GREEN LINE ( Open Interest).  AT OTHER ICLS, THE OI line was at the bottom of the chart, below the Commercial Shorts , and here it was high at the mid point.  This made things a bit less predictable, but I wondered if an ICL would still form in May anyway…

COT  – NOW we see OPEN INTEREST AT THE ICL LEVEL. Do you see the Green Line now? As Commercial Smart Money Shorts close up?  THIS IS MORE BULLISH & NORMAL FOR AN ICL.  In other words, this looks to be at ICL levels.

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THE LAUNCHING PAD ?

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GOLD  – So we have a weekly reversal candle on GOLD. A possible ICL. We know that we are in the timing, I have discussed the 5-7 month window from Dec lows for a long time now.  WE ARE DUE, and WE ARE READY. I’m Looking  for follow through next week.

LAST WEEK I POSTED 2 CHARTS OF HUI 2008-2011   –  I DID THIS TO SHOW THAT MINERS IN A BULL MARKET DID NOT CRASH INTO ICLs, WE ACTUALLY HAD HIGHER LOWS.  SO MAYBE WE SHOULD NOT WAIT FOR A CRASH IN MINERS.  SEE THE HIGHER LOWS.

 

GDXJ   – MINERS HAVE NOT CRASHED INTO THIS ICL- MAYBE THEY WONT.  We actually now have an unconfirmed swing low in Miners,  but I noticed that  even though HUI, XAU, GDX did not close above their 10sma, but GDXJ has.  This is the first sign of a bullish reversal, but nothing to get overly crazy about.  I have encouraged owning some Miners, but not being ‘All In with Leverage’ .    The safe buy is for GOLD to close above the 10sma & down trend line, but we are getting so late in this intermediate Cycle that I think any possible downside would be quick-  so again I have been encouraging buying Miners.    Read the chart.

 

GDXJ WEEKLY – At resistance, but imagine a break higher.  That could start a nice run out of an ICL.  I do still own some JNUG, but I prefer to ‘recommend it’ on a safer break out. This COULD still quickly drop to the green 200ma if Golds ICL is not in. It also may break out higher.  Stay Frosty my friends, we are close.

Side Note:  USE A STOP IF YOU OWN LEVERAGE & CANNOT STAND DRAW DOWN.  A drop in Miners is still possible and could be sharp & fast  (But I do expect that it would reverse out of the lows soon if that happened).  You could see JNUG drop to $12, and then take off to $20, for example.

 

FSM   – I mentioned that I bought this a while ago.  So FSM had a nice Move on Friday as GDXJ put in a swing low (unconfirmed).  So Owning some Miners has been recommended for a while now.

 

EXK WEEKLY  – I also recommended & own EXK since before it broke out.  You can see that it is holding the highs during a Silver drop too. Miners are acting bullishly heading into an ICL.

 

 

GORO  – I have been discussing the bullish set up in GORO for weeks, and this is GORO this week.  IT is ramping up and closed at the highs.  GORO & KL and now others joining in Are great examples of why I think the Miners have re-entered a BULL MARKET, and they are NOT selling off into this ICL.

AG WKLY-  Did you say to yourself, “I want to buy the dip in AG”?  That was a reversal candle last week.  I think AG will be over $20 one day, when it moves out of this base.

I really like what I am seeing in the Miners, especially because we know that GOLD & SILVER have been dropping into an ICL.  The Miners are starting to act like the HUI in 2008 onward, when they resisted selling into an ICL,  likely due to some accumulation taking place.  WE ARE DUE FOR AN ICL, and WE HAVE A WEEKLY REVERSAL IN GOLD, so that ICL may be in place.  We should know next week.  If it is not, it should be very soon and the strength in some of the Miners are a nice sign of that ICL being due.

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THE COT IS LOOKING GOOD FOR AN ICL AND …

GOLD MIGHT BE SITTING ON THE LAUNCHING PAD, BEFORE A STRONG RALLY IS UPON US. You have NOT missed a thing, but be ready if you have not entered this sector.

ENJOY THE REST OF YOUR WEEKEND, and Stay Frosty!  Next Week could be very rewarding for the patience that many of you have shown.

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~ALEX

 

 

NAT – Nat was a Buy here, I’ve mentioned many shippers acting bullishly  ( DRYS, OSG, NAT, TNK, FRO, SBLK, etc etc.)

NAT –  It closed up  close to 40% for the week and closed at the highs.  These Shippers are running strong out of solid bases.  Keep your eyes on Shippers too.  For example: I own & like the 5 yr wkly chart of OSG

 

CGC – The break out, the back test and possibly will drop to the 10sma or maybe even the lower blue trend line.  All bull markets have big drops-  look at all of your tech stocks recently like MU, CREE, SQ, etc –  THEY ARE NOT EASY RIDES, but can be rewarding if you dont get bucked off.

 

 

CRON – Same story here, it seems to be inside of a triangle. It is choppy, but it has run from about $5 to $8 and is still bullishly set up.

 

ERF  – An Energy stock that seems to have sold off sharply and recovered as a shake out. It looks like it wants to break out, so put this on a watch list if you are interested.   It is choppy, but in an uptrend

 

MU – Possible Cup & Handle

 

 

WHD  –  We traded this a few months ago and then it just consolidated those gains from under $20 to almost $40.  It broke out this week and looks bullish.  IF THE MARKETS DROP, this could back test the trend line as a low risk buy area   (Watch list).

 

CURO– This was in a report this week as a break out low risk Buy, since a stop can be placed at the 50sma.

 

CURO– It did have nice follow through on Friday.  It has a $30 price target, and volume seems to be confirming this move.