Wednesday June 6th – Running
SPX – Again, Nothing has technically changed in this set up for the SPX
SOXL – And the Semis are still running.
WTIC – This is a copy / paste from yesterdays report. Read the last line.
WTIC – We do have a reversal, but not a ‘swing low’ yet. Oil is now on day 41, and that is getting late in the daily cycle. A daily cycle low can form at any time, and we had a reversal on Tuesday. Wednesday is the OIL INVENTORY REPORT. We will have to see what Oil does when it DOES put in a swing low, and when it reaches the 50sma. A swing low is considered a buy, and then raise stops as it moves higher.
Oil Might only run to the 50sma and then drop to the 200sma, that is why we would raise our stop a bit, to avoid loss if the lows are taken out.
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XLE – Interesting, right? This looks nothing like OIL, and many Oil stocks are pulling back gently. See OAS, WPX, DNR for example.
USD– The USD broke the trend line and is now dropping into a dcl. A drop down to the 50sma certainly could push Gold higher.
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LETS DISCUSS GOLD
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GOLD MIDDAY POP – Gold Popped midday and I joked in the comments section that no one cared, no one even mentioned it. THAT is the perfect recipe for a surprise run.
GOLD END OF DAY – So by the end of the day, GOLD POP looked like a bull flag. Would it break higher later at night, when we couldn’t do anything but watch it run?
GOLD COMMENT – I wrote this as the market closed. I wondered if now was the best time for GOLD to break higher, since it seems to have successfully lulled every one to sleep.
SO FAR GOLD HAS DROPPED BACK DOWN TO THAT TREND LINE, it did not take off higher overnight. This is GOLD This morning.
GOLD – I have pointed out that Gold closed over the 10sma for a few days, so that LOOKS like a dcl, but a stronger push above this trend line would help to identify it as an ICL. If not, then we should have another drop left…
In the weekend report, I pointed out the last 3 ICLs and then also showed how the 2016 ICL had a PAUSE or DOJI the following week at the lows. We also had a pause or Doji last week after the recent lows. WAS THAT WEEK 2? IN 2016 GOLD TOOK OFF ON WEEK 3, so I am could watching this weeks action in Gold.
GXJ – I am also watching for GDX & GDXJ to break higher. They are currently under resistance and will probably remain there unless Gold took off higher.
Some Miners are still doing better than the metal at this time, as discussed in the past. We talked about GORO , for example, and it is still looking great. Note: If Gold dropped quickly $20 into an ICL, this would probably tag the 50sma for a ‘buy’.
EGO – Will EGO now try to continue to run like GORO has, regardless of Golds lack luster movement? EGO Tried to break out, consolidated in a flag pattern, and tried to break higher again yesterday. This may find follow through, so it could be bought with a tight stop, or bought understanding that it CAN drop to the 50sma too, if Gold drops. Maybe Start small & add later if you can handle that.
The General Markets and other sectors like Shippers, Uranium, Medical Marijuana, etc are continuing to break out & run. Various Commodity stocks are also moving higher. I have included quite a few stock pics in recent reports that are doing well, especially those Uranium picks yesterday. We will review some at the end of this report, but what about the Precious metals?
We know that we are within the ‘Timing’ for an ICL in Gold. Though that is very helpful, this has been a LONG, BORING, TIRING process, but we CANNOT give up until that ICL presents itself. We are within the timing for an important low that only comes about 2 times per year, and the Miners usually respond very well at that time.
We already should own some miners, just in case this sector does a surprise launch and again, some Miners are doing well, even as Gold flounders around. Take a look at GORO as it simply rides the 10sma and you will see what I mean.
Take a look at RGLD – it is very unlikely that RGLD will sell off very much, even is Gold plunged $20 into an ICL, right? When this breaks out from this massive consolidation, FUNDS and Buyers will probably push this much higher.
We will either get another quick slam down as a buy opportunity in Gold, or the lows are in right now and this sideways stall will eventually break out when no one expects it. Well, we actually are expecting it! The waiting is the hardest part. For now, the traders here are enjoying some other trades, so I will discuss a few at the end of this report. Enjoy your Wednesday trading!
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~ALEX
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OGRMF – This was in yesterdays report, I own it and added with this set up.
OGRMF – I want to point out 2 things here…
1. The burst higher as expected, almost 10%. Congrats if you are still holding or bought the open yesterday, and …
2. Notice the original BUY at $3 when price crawled along the 50sma. Look at that set up.
DO YOU REMEMBER THIS MAY 7th CHART WITH OGRMF? It was a buy and I ask because…
ACBFF – I pointed out ACBFF in the comments – it was also crawling under the 50sma like OGRMF did weeks ago as an early BUY point.
ACBFF – I pointed this out in the comments section, mentioning that I bought it. THIS IS JUST LIKE OGRMF in the charts above, right?
ACBFF – And it popped after I bought it, but this is still a buy if you go back and look at what OGRMF in the following weeks.
OGRMF- Compare that chart above of ACBFF with this one. VERY SIMILAR, and we know that OGRMF went higher over the next month.
DNN – From yesterdays report as a buy.
DNN – Boom. Ride it, add on pull backs, this whole sector is lighting up.
UEC – Yesterday as a buy
UEC – Another nice break out
UUUU – I’m going to say that this one may still be a buy right here, and I do own it. Why? This might just be breaking out now, it is not overbought or extended, and …
UUUU – This sector seems to be turning longer term bullish, so I looked at that massive base and WOW. Even just a run to the 200sma is a great trade, so I stepped in.
OSG From yesterdays report – A shipper. Here at 9:47 a.m. Monday morning, I posted this in the comments Monday & also in yesterdays report. This was a buy and I said that I own it, it looks to be forming a rounding base / cup type consolidation…
OSG – Only 4 % Follow through Tuesday, but that is good, because it is not too late to enter here. This is still a low risk entry if you ask me.
NM – Another Shipper that POPPED above that 50sma. This could be bought too, since it looks ready to break from this base. You also could put this on a watch list, and see if it runs and back tests the 50 later. ( It could just run from here and not look back).
TGB – TGB is breaking higher too, over the 50sma. Strong volume. BUY with a stop under recent lows. This also could just take off and run to the 200sma, or it may meander and form a round bottom base, I cannot tell, but it does look to be bottoming here.
CY – I BOUGHT IT, but it has SLOWLY BEEN making moves higher. I wondered: It has small slow up days, Should I Hold or dump it?
CY – It is still only making Tiny moves higher, so do I Hold or Dump it? Let’s look at CREE when it broke out …
CREE – When Cree broke out, it also was just stringing together small daily moves higher, but it sure added up. It reached the former March highs at $45 as expected…
CREE- And at $49 now, it continues onward. So selling just because the moves were tiny would not have been a good move. I will hold CY for a bit longer and it is still a buy.
