Still Waiting On Gold – Weekend Report

It was a crazy week of activity, from the meeting between U.S. President Trump & North Korean leader Kim Jong – Un, to the FOMC Mtg Wednesday and the ECB Mtg Thursday. With all of that, nothing really changed….until Friday!   Let’s discuss the weeks Market activity…

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SPX WEEKLY – Nothing changed with the General Markets, this is still a bullish set up.

 

 

WTIC DAILY– Oil dropped Friday and gives us a clearer a-b-c drop.  I expected a possible back test of the 50sma & then a drop toward the 200sma, but it didn’t quite make it up that high.  Watch the 200sma.

 

WTIC  WEEKLY – Oil is still acting as expected too.  We should still have more downside.

 

The rest of this report is where things got crazy. There is so much that I could talk about here, but I want to keep it specific and just lay out some expectations now, changes that we witnessed, and a bit more.

 

USD WEEKLY – The USD was rejected at the 200ma  (weekly).   It looked like a top could form and suddenly last week, it surged higher.

 

USD DAILY – Read the chart, and Gold crashed down $26 really at one point. I hot the ‘1’ and not the ‘2’.   I then wanted to see how this all affect other areas like the EURO & YEN.

 

 

YEN DAILY – The reaction in the YEN was Muted compared to the USD & GOLD. The Yen has held it’s recent lows & filled a gap.

YEN WEEKLY – And there was no big change for Yen in the weekly chart. It looks oversold and almost at support.  Notice that at the same time as GOLDS 2 DEC ICLS & JULY ICL  we saw the YEN RALLY. The YEN looks like a bullish uptrend really and ready to move higher soon.

 

EURO WEEKLY – The EURO WEEKLY looks like a shake out,  break out,  & now a possible back test? The MACD has divergence.

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THAT LEADS US TO GOLD

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So for WEEKS & WEEKS, I have been patient and I said that Gold could drop to another low in ICL fashion, but Gold was holding up.  We have even expected an ICL in May, June, or July.  Well, after that  ICL drop didn’t happen with the FOMC Decision Wednesday, and it didn’t happen with the ECB decision  (Despite the USD SURGE), I wrote my Friday report saying that clues were pointing to an ICL likely being in place.   Hey Alex, Friday proved you wrong, that ICL drop started right after I posted that report.

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THAT kind of put me and this guy in the Doghouse together, but …

  – I immediately went in the Comments section and tried to stay LIVE all morning, and offer up what I was seeing as things played out.  There were Positive developments to report.  The BIG observation, and I will discuss it here too, was that many Miners were NOT falling, though GOLD was down $26 & Silver plunged. With GOLD crashing down $26,  Recent purchases like EXK, FSM, etc had minimal damage. We’ll discuss that later, but it is encouraging for the Big Picture that we have been viewing on Weekend reports. 

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 So what can I do? When the markets throw us a curve ball or a fake out, we just have to get up, brush off the dust, and keep examining the set up.  A temporary change, especially a 1 day event on Friday so far, does not mean that the big picture and future expectations changed.  They may be delayed.  MANY GAVE UP IN 2016 choppiness and REGRET missing that rally to this day. I Don’t fight the markets if things turn bearish, but I also won’t give up when the bullish analysis is still bullish , but simply delayed!   Let’s continue…

 

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Yup, I GOT EMAILS AGAIN, SAYING THAT ‘GOLD IS A DEAD RELIC THAT HAS GONE NOWHERE FOR DECADES’. REALLY? Decades?  🙂

I see a BULL RUN from about $250 to $1923, and a 50% Pullback and forming a new base.  Now show me your ‘dead relic’ chart.

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GOLD  DAILY – Here I am pointing out a 1 day slam down event in May similar to Friday, and what followed.  After the big 1 day drop, it was followed by a few more choppy days and a low was in. Will that happen here this week?  I cannot say for sure, but we will now examine the possibilities & try to prepare for what may come our way…

 

GOLD  60 minute  – So this was that BIG SLAM FRIDAY, and to the left of the chart is that BIG SLAM in MAY with the choppy bottom that followed. That choppy bottom MIGHT be what we see this week….

GOLD  60 minute chart – I have copied the May bottom to our current drop, and this means that we could, may, might, possibly, maybe  see something choppy like this through next week.

 

 

GOLD  WEEKLY #1 –  Also in the past we have seen a 1 week slam down ( Blue arrows) followed by a reversal candle ( Red arrows).  It shakes people off & leaves them behind at times.  SO THIS MEANS – If we get a strong reversal next week, it could be what we have seen at these prior lows  and an ICL.

 

 

GOLD  WEEKLY #2 –  So on this chart, I am mentioning that we just had a big 1 week drop, but  we could also get 1 more weekly drop to make the new low, and break the MA like in the past. WE are above that blue MA line currently.  After a break through, we could then reverse back higher in the same week.  So basically, we could have more selling next week, but we will be looking  for a reversal along the way.

 

GOLD  WEEKLY  #3 – Slightly different. A drop that closes down 2 weeks in a row, and the reversal comes the following week. That would make 2 weeks down  ( last week, next week), see purple arrows. I drew in the last price stick. Stochastics similar to the Dec ICL.

 

GOLD  WEEKLY #4 – WITH ALL OF THAT NOW MENTIONED, I’ll ADD THAT I AM NOT EXPECTING THE PRIOR ICL TO BE BROKEN.  We have had a series of higher lows from ICL to ICL. So $1238.30  should hold, and we may not even come close to it.  Let’s look at Silver.

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SILVER:

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SILVER AS OF THURSDAY-  Seriously,  this looked VERY BULLISH after the FOMC & ECB.  THE USD SURGED THURSDAY, and yet Silver looked to be leading the way higher, NO SIGN of weakness! RSI at 80!! Silver Miners were breaking out!

SILVER  DAILY – Let’s be honest,  with the USD SURGE on Thursday and Silver breaking higher too, who thought that it would suddenly give it up big time Friday.?  And as GOLD went sideways for weeks, Silver was climbing, and that was Bullish,  leading the way higher.  Now it crashed, but this is Interesting, because as Silver got smoked, the silver stocks did not. We’ll discuss that later.

SILVER  WEEKLY – A reversal and it does look like this may have room for more downside next week, but we’ll have to see.

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MINERS- Interesting

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GDX : GOLD–  This chart says that Miners are ignoring Golds selling & are leading the way higher. That can change with a sell off in Miners, but right now?  This says that Miners have been bullish, and you will see more of that as I go on here…

GDXJ DAILY –  GOLD DOWN $26, Silver down 4.5%, and Juniors were down 1.48%??  THIS IS NOT NORMAL.  Your choices: Be cautious, and use stops suited for your own style of trading  ( or just sell to be safe & re-enter when gold & Silver are done selling), but this is very encouraging so far.

GDXJ WEEKLY – There is room to drop, but this held up remarkably well despite Fridays Metals drop. GDXJ was down  7 cents last week.  Can you believe that??  You have time to sell & get back in later, or watch how it plays out.  The stochastics does look 50/50.

 

GDX WEEKLY –  Are Miners leading Gold & Silver, or will they eventually join them? It is best to Stay Frosty & Use stops, but GDX was only down  13 cents last week.

GDX WEEKLY – This is a possibility if Miners act like Silver did & just drop out of no where.  Silver was Bullish Thursday, and crushed Friday. A drop to support would not be bearish either.

 

GG WEEKLY –  GG held up well, but you can see that it is ready to break out or ready to drop, so we need to Stay Frosty…

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MINERS DURING THE GOLD & SILVER SLAM DOWN FRIDAY

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EXK WEEKLY – This just isn’t reflecting the SILVER sell off at all.  EXK was up 13% last week, with Silver getting smashed. This is a nice base.

 

FSM WEEKLY – FSM is holding up, though Silver got slammed down sharply Friday. It closed the week green too.

 

Remember when I was recommending GORO last week?

AND IT BROKE HIGHER with strong volume…

 

THIS WAS GORO FRIDAY, WITH GOLD DOWN $26 AT ONE POINT? WHAT IS THIS SAYING ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT SMART MONEY IS IGNORING THE METALS SELL OFF?

GORO WEEKLY – Goro closed at the weekly highs Friday?  Yes, GORO was up over 10% last week too.

So If you owned GORO, EXK, and FSM and never saw GOLD & SILVER sell off Friday, you would probably think that Gold rallied. That is amazing for Miners to be up 13% during a sell off.

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In conclusion:   GORO rallied on Friday with Gold down $26?   EXK & FSM broke out & held a lot of their gains with Silver getting absolutely crushed.  When I see that, and consider the timing for an ICL, I just don’t feel like the sell off in the Metals is going to be ‘real’ or long lasting. It feels like manipulation is occurring where smart money is pushing the Metals down, to scare the weak short term traders out of their Miners.  When they get people to panic and sell in quantity, they can then accumulate or take larger positions in the stocks by scooping  up those shares as sellers bail out.

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   Obviously I was early when I mentioned that GOLD LOWS (ICL)  could be in place in Fridays report, and I feel bad about that since I try to be cautious for my readers sake, but this is not normal action.  Is this really just a manufactured stop run to shake off the weak hands & Scoop up/ Accumulate the miners?   We will know soon enough.  Again,  EXK closed up 13% for the week and GORO up 10% for the week. THAT IS NOT NORMAL WHEN GOLD DROPS $26.

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   Next week will help us to see how far the metals want to go with this selling, and whether or not the Miners will join in. So far, several Miners remained very bullish, and that is encouraging for our Big Picture View. I would think that the USD needs to slow down, form as L.T., and roll over soon though, so I will be watching the USD too.

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  I hope that this report helped you to continue to see the bullish side of this sector.  Despite the floor dropping out of Gold & Silver Friday, the Big Picture showed a nice run from $250 to almost $2000, and a 50% Pull back.  The choppiness is due to end in the near future with an ICL & a strong, solid Rally.  For now, it is best to use those stops as protection and Stay Frosty!

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Enjoy the rest of your weekend!

 

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~ALEX

 

 

 

AG WEEKLY – Could drop another $1 for a back test.