June 9th Weekend Report
This weekend report will show that we did not see a lot of change from the expectations of last weekends Big Picture Report. We will discuss Gold a lot more than the other sectors though, since it is boring us to death at a very important time period. Our Theme Picture could be entitled, “Wake me when Time’s Up!”
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SPX – So far the break out, back test, and follow through higher is playing out. We really want to see 2801.90 taken out to prevent a L.T. Intermediate Cycle. That is only 22.87 higher from Fridays close.
The SPX set up is Bullish Technical Analysis wise, but a bit hazy cycle wise. A Left Translated Weekly Cycle would call for a deeper sell off using cycles, so we really need to rise up over that 2801.90 to get comfortable.
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JUST A REMINDER
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QQQ for the NASDAQ – The NASDAQ is at new highs and that is quite Bullish, but I decided to just point out on this Big Picture chart that we may not be heading straight to the moon. Prior breaks to new highs after consolidations DID SEE further choppiness. Using our daily cycle counts will help us with entry points after a daily cycle low (dip).
OIL
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WTIC DAILY June 1 – I was looking for an a-b-c drop on the daily dip for Oil
WTIC DAILY – At this point, we did get an a-b-c type drop on the daily, and this is an UNCONFIRMED swing low.
Will we get an a-b-c type dip on the weekly? Maybe not…
WTIC WEEKLY – Oil has pulled back as expected and last week we saw a reversal candle. I was thinking that an a-b-c type weekly drop would also bring us down to the trend line, so …
WTIC WEEKLY– Though we could get an a-b-c type bounce here too, as shown below, the XLE and some energy stocks look to be bullishly holding up better than Oil. Does that mean that Oil may be ready to just move higher again? I’ll have to watch and see how this plays out.
XLE – As mentioned last week, several Oil / Energy stocks are setting up bullishly already, and XLE did not follow OIL down for 3 weeks. GUSH, ERX, XLE were actually ‘buys’ as Oil sold down. THIS makes me wonder if Oil just rallies from here & does not get an a-b-c weekly dip.
GOOD NEWS & BAD NEWS?
USD WEEKLY #1 – The USD formed a weekly swing high and was rejected at the 200 weekly MA. That is the good news, since we are expecting an ICL in Gold.
USD WEEKLY #2 – That was a strong rally & right translated, so I would expect a pretty good bounce after the dcl is in place, and that dcl is due now. Is that short term Bad News for Gold? MAYBE, MAYBE NOT. A bounce in the Dollar, as shown, could be ignored by Gold too. We’ll see.
GOOD NEWS & BAD NEWS?
HERE IS OUR GOLD ICL OVERVIEW AGAIN – The Good news? We are currently WITHIN THE NORMAL TIMING FOR AN ICL. The Bad news? The timing can be NOW – or – JULY. Let’s discuss this further…
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This shows ICLs arriving “roughly’ every 6 months. WE ARE DUE! They can be 5 months apart, they have been 7 months apart on occasion. See the chart below and then one after it…
LAST YEAR, we saw a the DEC 2016 ICL and a JULY 2017 ICL, 7 months apart. Now we have a DEC 2017 ICL and the next one???
GOLD ICLS- I have been posting this chart since March to highlight & continually remind us of that average length of time from ICL To ICL, so that we do not get lulled to sleep. June is 6 months, July would be 7. Again, we had 7 months DEC to JULY in 2017.
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MORE REVIEW…
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GOLD MAY HAVE AN ICL AT 6 MONTHS. Look at the stochastics, it is oversold enough that we may be set to launch at the FOMC.
OR GOLD MAY HAVE AN ICL AT 7 MONTHS. We can’t dismiss it, since we saw that last year, but we must remain alert and vigilant now too.
GOLD #1 – So this is Gold currently
GOLD #2 – 1 more drop is not out of the question, and is acceptable time-wise.
GOLD #3 – This is a close up of one more quick drop sooner than later, like after the FOMC MTG, if that was a bear flag.
GOLD #4 – Or If that was an ICL & it just takes off from here. Let’s be ready for ANYTHING.
SILVER – Big potential in Silver in this incredible base.
GDX #1 – So you can see that this does have room to drop a bit before a rally.
GDX #2 – Or it can also just launch from here on FOMC WEEK.
GDX #3 – Then a break out, DCL back test, and rally would be exceptional.
GOLD BIG PICTURE – This is so encouraging to me. This is also why we cannot take our eyes of Gold or lose focus, even though day after day after day Gold does ‘Nothing’ important and seems boring. This can run to $1500+ quickly.
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Next week we will see if anything important happens before, during, or after the FOMC Mtg. We may see false sell offs at the Fed Decision and then a rally, or we may just start to rally Tuesday and Wednesday and never look back if the ICL is in place. Let’s just continue to be ready to jump in when that time comes along!
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Enjoy the rest of your weekend, next week should be, to say the least, ‘interesting’.
~ALEX
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After the vote – This chart remains bullish as it broke higher above the 50 weekly ma
BY REQUEST FROM CHUCK: WATCH SGYP
One of our readers ( Thanks Chuck) focuses on the Biotech / Pharma sector and often emails me about various interests. He does not wish to post in the comments section. He found SGYP last week and mentioned that it has 62 million short! The daily chart is bullish alone, as seen here closing above the 50sma Friday, but…
SGYP WEEKLY- The weekly chart shows great potential too. I see a base forming with the MACD rising as price simply churned sideways. Last weeks tiny looking pop was a 17.8% move for the week. A move above that weekly 30ma should be very bullish and if this really does have that many short positions, it could move swiftly higher with short covering.
