Friday Snapshot
This is a snap shot of ‘things’ for Friday
SPX #1 – We had a reversal, and buyers are jumping in, but IS IT THE DCL? WE are due for both a DCL & An ICL. I’d like to see a dcl form and break to new highs, breaking the March highs too, before dropping into an ICL.
SPX #2 WEEKLY – Fridays close is rather important to me. Will we close above the 10 weekly ma ( 2725) Or below? I see strong divergence on the weekly so far, and if we have a daily cycle low here, we still may form it as L.T. & drop later to an ICL.
DJIA – The DJIA looks to have its own problems. It remains under the 10, 50, & 200sma. I feel like the BUY THE DIPS crowd has not noticed this yet. It is quite oversold, so maybe it can recover on Friday.
Among the strongest of the group has been Tech, and you will recall the warning that a bearish rising wedge formed in the NASDAQ and then it started to break down
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QQQ – the recent correction has repaired it. The drop turns the wedge into a channel. It is now also oversold, so traders buy the reversal at support with a stop on this or their favorite tech stock that they trade, and cycle followers often wait for a swing low breaking the 10sma. In the weekend report. however, we will be looking at an overbought Nasdaq chart with a weekly swing high- so the selling may or may not be done. Use stops if you trade the general Markets.
WTIC– OIL has been VERY Bullish since the day 49 lows, breaking out to new highs, but again as mentioned …
XLE – The OIL / Energy Stocks are not nearly as bullish. Oil broke to new highs, XLE is stammering. This is a bit odd. At least we saw a reversal bounce off of the 10sma. Oil is on day 8, but this looks like day 3?
So I have been watching this sector and while some of the Energy Stocks do seem to be o.k., others definitely lagging Oils progress. OAS, WPX, ERF were leaders on the last run, yet they are not gaining traction yet, similar to XLE. I do own LGCY, and it seems ok for now, and others do too, so I’m watching this sector for more clues …
DNR may be setting up as a buy. It Pops and pulls back and may pull back & do another reversal in this area. See also GST, PKD, and others on your watch list. They may be ‘setting up’.
AXAS– AXAS is crawling up the 10sma and forming technical patterns that are playing out. I will be looking for this along the way. This cup is formed by a
1. falling wedge break out
2. A flat top wedge that broke higher. It could form a
3. a cup now & volume is good.
USD – What can I say here? If the MACD crosses here & it breaks even higher, it really looks bullish. At this point, we may get a false break out & drop.
1. The USD will be due for a DCL, it is on day 10.
2. The USD is due for an ICL, and that kind of a drop would be great for Golds low (Finally).
3. We need the USD to drop sooner then later to become L.T.
GOLD – I pulled up the weekly chart and the 150 weekly MA (red line). I found it interesting. Friday could break the 150 ( future shake out), or Friday could start a reversal on that 150ma. Gold is very oversold, even on the weekly chart.
GOLD WEEKLY – Obviously the weekend report would show this, but I wanted to give this to you for Friday. This weeks sell down still simply resembles past Dec & July ICL drops. The reversal came on the following week.
GDX – Miners are still holding up, but just don’t be surprised if they drop further into an ICL if Gold doesn’t bottom soon. A break ABOVE THE 10 SMA on Friday may indicate Miners Leading Gold higher. I do see divergence forming.
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THIS SELLING IS VERY OVERDONE no matter how you look at it 🙂
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So the weekend report may be published a bit later than usual, landing on Sunday later in the day or even Monday, it depends on how much I need to cover. If I have time I will gather the charts & put it together sooner. If it comes out before Sunday, it means that I am able to be short & to the point. Actually, I think by now we all should know very well what I am expecting in the Gold Market, and how many different ways can I say it, really? 🙂 It’s really just a matter of ‘time’ in that sector.
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Enjoy your Friday trading & your weekend!
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~ALEX
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MJ STOCKS SHOOK ME OUT & MANY REVERSED SHARPLY HIGHER WHILE I WAS AWAY FROM THE SCREEN THURSDAY. THEY LEFT ME BEHIND 🙁 I DID NOT HAVE TIME TO RE-ENTER, AND I PROBABLY WOULD HAVE. I MAY RE-ENTER Friday?
ABCFF– This dropped to the 50sma and reversed nicely higher. THESE ARE ACTING CORRECTLY, THEY ARE BUY & HOLD & IGNORE THE WIGGLES. I OVER TRADED IT.
CRON – draw a trend line along the bottom, and this is also still in tact. I was mentally stopped out ( and mentioned in the comments that I sold it) at the 50sma. I sold near $6.60 & it dropped to $6 & bounced. Now that looks perfect, right? I may buy this back Friday.
OGRMF – This was a huge drop and a huge gain, all in 2 days. It went right to the 50sma & reversed. Amazing. I actually sold this higher and am ready to re-enter. I would have bought this back midday if I was in front of the screen.
I WARNED REPEATEDLY THAT THESE STOCKS ARE VERY DIFFICULT TO BUY & HOLD & RIDE. I AM STILL LEARNOING THAT FOR MYSELF. LAST OCT-DEC I MADE GREAT GAINS BUYING & HOLDING THESE.
NOW – I BOUGHT LOW AGAIN, MADE GREAT GAINS, AND GAVE MUCH OF THE RECENT GAINS BACK ON THIS RUN. THAT WILL NOT STOP ME, I HAVE SEEN THIS MOVIOE BEFORE AND I KNOW HOW IT CAN END FOR THE PERSISTANT ONES. 🙂 THIS STILL LOOKS & ACTS LIKE A BULL MARKET TO ME.
