May 3rd – 1 step closer

 When it comes to cycle timing, every step does get us closer to our goal.

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SPX DAILY  – WEAK. We will be on day 23 Thursday, and the markets moved slightly higher after Wednesdays FOMC Decision, and then sold off into the close. This still looks weak, I remain cautious.

 

Due to the time, I will not proof read this report before releasing it,  I will do that after releasing it. Please excuse typos and such.

 

SPX WEEKLY – We do not want to see the RED DOTTED LINE taken out, that would be bearish, and an upside break out would be bullish.

SAIL  – Some stocks remain pretty healthy looking, but…

CASA – Many of the others that we were trading broke down & this could be a bear flag bounce.

– I remain cautious with these General Markets.  If they are topping or entering a prolonged consolidation, it is likely that we will see money move out of the General Markets and into Precious Metals. It does not take much money to set this Precious Metals sector on fire.

 

 

GOLD  – I often warn of knee-jerk reactions and odd volatility on Fed Wednesday.  We have all seen it before, and yesterday was no different. Everything rallied very sharply after 2 p.m., and then sold off into the ened of the day.

 

GOLD – Gold did not break the lows, it also did not take out the Tuesday highs, so we do NOT have a swing low in Gold yet.

GOLD – We know that we are one day closer to a low, if that low is not in place yet. A swing is in place if $1317.40 is taken out, and it if happened today, this would be day 2.   If the Lows of 1302.30 are taken out, this would be day 32, a continuation of the drop to a DCL or ICL.

 

GDX  – This could be the start of a swing low. Miners looked like they were going to put in a swing low, and then sold off into the close. Basically, GDX was rejected at the 200sma. I do like the way many individual Miners acted and have been acting over the past week of chop.

 

GDXJ  -GDXJ looked a bit stronger yesterday, and it rallied sharply before selling down. It is slightly under the 200sma and still above the 50sma, so at this point swing low could be very close for the juniors.

 

As I ran through many Miners , I see bullish set ups that are still near the lows, but not breaking down to new lows.   We are so close to the bottom, that buying these is not that risky.  That said,  Surprises like ‘Public offerings’ and ‘Earnings’ can always affect an individual stocks price, so I never just own 1 or 2 stocks.  A small basket will protect from individual stock surprises to the downside.

 

AUY  – I grabbed this chart after the Fed Announcement, AUY was moving over $3.  Earnings came out after the bell, and AUY remains right here.  This is a bullish set up and I would consider it a buy above the 50 & 200sma.  The stochastics did not get oversold, that is the only thing that is lacking on this chart, but at or below 50% can rally too ( See April).

 

AUY  – After the close, AUY was under $3.   🙂 , but it was down slightly after earnings.

 

EGO – Beaten down – this is likely due to a situation they are experiencing in Greece with one of their mines.  This may look ugly, but it really looks like a good chance for some upside potential.  If we see GOLD break out and run to $1500 to $1700 in 2018,  EGO will not remain down at these lows.  It will probably be up hundreds of % points.  In fact…

 

EGO –  EGO was up almost 10% and DID NOT sell off into the close when Gold did. It broke the 50sma and closed above it as GOLD sold off.   I would say that EGO is a tad riskier, but it is a buy here at the lows.

 

 

GORO  – GORO bottomed in 2016, and has now also bottomed in a long consolidation in 2017.  It  has doubled since that 2017 low.  It is NOT an easy ride, but it is a bullish chart in the bigger picture. It recently broke out in April after tagging the 200sma, & back tested that break out

 

GORO – The BIGGER picture shows that GORO wants to run to $8 ( & likely more)

 

IAG – IAG is at resistance. It is not dropping as Gold drops to a DCL/ ICL, so I would say that this has been another strong Miner.  They are NOT easy to ride, as you can see, but the lows of March seem to be holding up nicely. A break out could be bought with a tight stop.

 

GOLD is popping in pre-market, maybe we will get our swing low today?  We are getting later in the cycle count, and many Miners were simply ignoring Golds selling yesterday.  I do believe that we have an unconfirmed swing in place, if Gold takes out the 1317.40. A close above the 10sma at 1322 confirms it, but I personally wouldn’t wait for that, since Miners are acting like they are leading the way.  I did do some buying yesterday, but I also bought URG and ENPH, which I will discuss below.

I think it is safe to buy Miners that are not extended and especially if they are holding the 50sma, as shown in some recent reports and above.  Then we can see how well the move out of the next lows in Gold unfold.

 

Enjoy your Thursday trading, I will also continue to look for any more bullish set ups today to put in the next report.

 

~ALEX

 

 

In the comments yesterday , I mentioned that Uranium Stocks were still acting very bullishly. I pointed them out over a month ago, so lets take a look .

 

 

URG –  In my April report, URG was targeting the former highs to complete a cup, up near 75 cents

URG – This formed a CUP & HANDLE It looks like it could break out soon.  Uranium stocks have remained Bullish.

 

CCJ – This was CCJ about a month ago, as posted in the report.  It was targeting $11 area.

CCJ – It is now there.  I would buy a pull back on this one.

 

UEC- I think that this could be bought and held now. It has not been an ‘Easy’ Ride, but the sector is bullish.

 

UUUU – This volume looks bullish, and UUUU seems like it may break out higher very soon.

 

ENPH from my SEPT 2017 report   -This was one of my favorite stocks last year, and I rode it from this base from under $1.  I expect it to run to former highs over $16 actually, their business has been doing very well.

 

ENPH FEB of this year– You can see the potential if it gets back to $16.

I over traded it and lost position recently during a consolidation.

 

ENPH – ENPH, which has been on an excellent run, and many of us caught it from prior reports, is setting up again. I mentioned it in the comments yesterday near the open, and it had very big volume, so I bought near the open. I should just forget about this one and let it ride.