May 12th Weekend Report

Let’s review our market activity for the week.  After enduring a lot of choppiness in various Market Sectors recently, this was a week of change, with out prior reports discussing ‘crossing the line’ and ‘Follow through’.   Let’s take a look…

I want to try my best to keep this big picture report simple and to the point, since I do discuss many things in great detail during the daily reports.  We should all be aware of the expectations here.   Some things are still a tad hazy with  precious metals, but that has been covered in past reports and this weekend we will just discuss what we have in front of us right now.  Going forward I will continue to cover the idea of an  ICL  in May vs a possible ICL in June as necessary.

SPX –  SPX crossed the line, which gives is a break of the downtrend and more upside can be expected.

WTIC – I’ve had 2 measured targets for Oil, $72 & $74.  This is an unconfirmed  swing high on a daily chart, but we had one 4 days ago too, and that didn’t play out. I’m watching a lower trend line for clues. Even with a dip, I wouldn’t be surprised to see $74 . I’ll mention why in the summary at the end of the report.

WTIC WEEKLY – Possible topping candle near $72 – close enough to be a temporary top.

USD DAILY– Swing high and a close at the 10sma, a drop to the 200sma is likely, but I’d like to see it break through and drop to the 50sma. Gold would probably run to recent highs.

REMINDER USD MAY 9 –  I said that I am interested in where the USD closes Friday.  WILL THE PRICE REMAIN ABOVE THE BREAK OUT AT THE 50 WEEKLY  MA? Watching 92.47

USD WEEKLY  – $92.41.  False break out?  Downside next week could drop this to the 10 weekly & I would expect Gold to take off higher.

GOLD #1  –  We do have a weekly swing low ( Unconfirmed) after Gold  finally moved higher last week.  I like the volume too. ICL or DCL does remain 50/50 at this point. I am long Miners.

GOLD #2 – (Look at the chart now )  We have seen  ICL’s 5 months or 6 months apart, and right now May would be 5 months from December.  ICL May or ICL June?  We will know in time, but we are long Miners until we get a reason not to be.

GOLD #3 –  IF the USD drops, we could get a run to the highs or even a break out.  A break out could be explosive, and at that point I’d be convinced that we saw an ICL in May. It would be good to at least  be long some Miners now in case that event unfolds.

GOLD #4  – So while we could see this very bullish break above the 50 sma, and a run to the former highs, if the USD drops further ( the USD drop is expected) ….

GOLD #5 – A short term bearish scenario cannot be left out.  It is only SHORT TERM bearish,  until the lows of the intermediate daily cycle are in.   THAT dip, if it happened, would likely be the ICL, if it is not in place right now.

SILVER – The weekly chart of Silver is pushing on the 50 week ma. Read the chart. Kind of interesting that Dec 2016 & Dec 2017 ICls were in the same place. Another drop to lows cannot be ruled out until we break out higher.

GDX DAILY  – This is a bullish set up at this point, as long as we are aware that Left Translated Daily cycles in the 5th month would peak right around here ( Maybe day 8-10), so on alert for support to hold here.

GDX WEEKLY – Closed above the 10 weekly MA- that is Bullish at this point. We are still in the middle of this 15 month consolidation and have been for 6-8 weeks!  How about a break higher please! A break higher can run to $25ish.

So while we wonder what GOLD, SILVER , & GDX will do,  INDIVIDUAL MINERS continue to look more and more bullish. This is encouraging to our Big Picture and the idea that I have been presenting all year: The idea that I believe 2018 will be a break out year for Miners, similar to 2016.

GORO – Goro is at 1year + highs. A $4 stock in March, it should be $8 over time. You know Miners-  it can climb there in a stair step manner, or it can rush straight up in 2 months if Gold breaks out, finishing a cup formation.

IAG – After earnings came out this week,  IAG broke out.  Do you remember when Miners would crash after earnings?  We are seeing a change in character. This remains  Bullish.

The General Markets  and many individual stocks within have finally begun to break higher too.  After weeks of chopping around, they do have a down trend line break. We have found many other stocks ( restaurant ) that were moving higher during the choppiness too. CAKE, SHAK, WING, etc.

OIL – Bullish, a topping candle is possible, but as a right translated daily cycle,  we would not expect that deep of a drop, we should expect a new high and I still think that we will see $74.

USD – It has a swing high in place and should continue lower.

.

Precious Metals – I like the way things are playing out in the the Precious Metals Sector, and soon we should be able to identify exactly where Gold is in its Intermediate Cycle Counts. I have been long miners for quite a while, starting with some Silver Miners, TRX, AUY, & THM, and recently I added leverage when I mentioned it after the FOMC Decision.  You can see the end of this report below  if you need a reminder as to how I added to JNUG intraday on the Thursday after FOMC.  I had posted it real time in the comments on that day.

ENJOY THE REST OF YOUR WEEKEND, NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE A GOOD WEEK OF TRADING!

~ALEX