How About Some Friday Follow Through

Yesterdays report was entitled  “Cross That Line”, and the markets did just that!  They crossed the lines that we were looking at,  so I figured that it wouldn’t hurt to name Fridays report, “How about some Friday follow through”, to see if they would accommodate again.

Let’s take a look at how accommodating  the market action was yesterday…

 

SPX – SPX crossed the line, breaking the down trend.

 

 

WTIC  – Oil almost hit $72 and is actually running against an overhead trend line. It can climb along it and get to that $74 area, but $72 has been my first target and could be enough for now. We have more time in the daily cycle to continue higher, and this AGAIN ends up as right translated, so even a pull back should lead to higher price again.

 

WTIC – A wedge is forming, so the rise does have its limits before it takes another rest.

 

XLE –  XLE is nearing the January highs.  When it gets there, it can break out above the prior highs or possibly form a handle for a big cup & handle, as Oil pauses & drops from  inside the wedge.

USD FROM YESTERDAYS REPORT– I was looking for a dip.

 

USD – The USD put in a swing high, and with the timing due for a dcl, it ought to continue to dip down. Breaking the 10sma on the way down will confirm the swing high.  It is quite overbought.

 

 

GOLD  – We were hoping for a USD dip & a GOLD move above the 10sma, since we are on day 7 as of Thursday.  We got it.  Now how about some upside follow through!  Above the 50sma would be great ($1329).  Gold is still pretty oversold.

 

SILVER -MAY 9 – do you remember me writing this 3 days ago?  We want a break out, not another TAG & DROP.  I am watching Silver $1681, the 200sma.

SILVER  – We are now at that line of resistance $1681. How about some Friday follow through ?

 

GDX – GDX  did Cross that down trend line ( & the 200sma). Volume increased slightly.

 

GDXJ #1 – GDXJ was up 2% and broke from that triangle. We SHOULD run to Jan highs over time.

 

GDXJ $2 – I am watching $34.36, and it is only 26 cents higher. Honestly, it is far more important for GOLD, SILVER or even the GDX to break their April highs, but GDXJ is close and I will be watching for that bullish sign of life. Volume is increasing on GDXJ too.

 

So we have been watching these lows and invested  long in the Precious Metals since the F.O.M.C. Meeting. The sideways move for the past week has been tiring, but now we are seeing signs of a possible continuation higher.  We do need follow through, and maybe we will see that on Friday.  It would be nice to get some follow through higher today, to give us more gains between our entry price & the Friday closing prices.  This would be helpful just in case there was any kind of Sunday night drop in Golds prices.  The drop wouldn’t reach our stops at the open Monday, but we’ll just have to see what Friday has to offer.

Enjoy your Friday trading, and I will have a few more thoughts below.

 

~ALEX

 

 

THINGS THAT I THINK ABOUT ON FRIDAY- Sort of a Lesson

 

 When I am ‘hoping’ for a move higher in GDX, I know that it may depend on what Gold does Friday too.   So what if Gold ‘stalls on Friday?  Is that acceptable or normal?  Unfortunately, it is possible. So let me show you what I am looking at…

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 In the comments section Thursday morning, I was watching GOLD after it built a base over the past week.  Gold was pushing higher, so I wanted to post what I was watching in pre-market.  3 charts below show that, and the 4th & 5th are Gold currently ( as of midnight Thursday) .

 

GOLD #1-  In pre-market yesterday I saw GOLD  pushing higher with volume.  It made a bull flag, and continued higher-  this was still part of the 7 day BASE that I had been watching, but it looked like it might break out, so I posted these charts …

 

GOLD #2 –  Now at $1321, it was breaking out from the base that I was watching and Gold  passed the 10sma on the daily, so I posted this in the comments.

GOLD #3 –   I also drew in some of Golds resistance areas with horizontal  lines, to show where GOLD might stall for a bit.   The hope is that it can power through it and continue higher like the green arrow. As of Friday morning, Gold will still be in this area.

 

GOLD #4 – MIDNIGHT THURSDAY , SO YES, GOLD CAN STALL FRIDAY.  IT COULD EVEN DROP & BACK TEST, AS DRAWN.

 

GOLD NOW #5 –  I DECIDED TO GRAB A CHART RIGHT NOW AS I PROOF READ.  This looks good, even if we do stall and dip back later on Friday.  Just look at these resistance lines if GOLD does begin to drop.  This may give you more confidence to hold through the weekend.

A part of GDX breaking higher is the components of GDX.  So I look at  GG, ABX, NEM, etc.

 

ABX  – This does look like it wants to go higher.

GG  –  GG pulled back to the 200sma and is breaking higher. It broke a down trend line and should move higher.  CAN it back test Friday? Unfortunately, it may, but this looks bullish.

 

I also have been pointing out in MANY MANY reports that Individual Miners are acting bullishly. I will re-post a few charts, because I know that some are still feeling like they have been burned by Miners and they can’t trust them.  To the charts…

 

KL– BULLISH MINER! Bullish for 6 months now.  Almost 100% Gains.

GORO – BULLISH MINER for 6 months too. 50% Gains.

GORO – I posted this last week =  BULLISH MINER

 

AG & CDE – This is a huge base. When they start trending higher, it will be easier to buy & hold, but this looks more ‘constructive’ to me, not like long term weakness.

 

CDE –  Short term CDE dropped Wednesday below the 50 & 200sma, but reversed and re-gained them Thursday.  The BIG PICTURE for CDE & AG show some great upside potential over time, and also looks more ‘constructive’ to me.

We’ve discussed recent action in TRX, IAG, AKG, etc as bullish too.  Miners look to me like they are being accumulated, yet some readers are still  very nervous about trying to buy any  ( I do understand that, who hasn’t been burned ) eventually I hope that I can change that by sharing chart after chart as they progress.

 

It is obviously hard to buy a Miner like KL or AKG here, because it is getting extended and if you jump in when they need to pull back, you can lose money right away.  To become a lower risk entry,  we wait for a pull back or I also tend to look for some that may be lagging, yet set up bullishly.

 

 

AXU -I have actually owned this for a while, so trust me, IT IS LAGGING.  🙂   It does look ready to break out above this down trend line  soon and it has found support on the 50 & 200sma. I think that if this breaks out, it can be bought. I may add on a break out.

GPL  – This has been putting in a long consolidation / base too, so it is lagging on the upside. I believe that these types of laggers  (sideways moves) will break out & run when Silver does, or maybe even before that time. I put them on a watch list and I check them daily.  So GPL has higher lows, flat across the highs.  A break out could run higher.

 

BY REQUEST:

ENPH –  I have been pushing this one for a week, and it broke out nicely higher Thursday.

ENPH – Up 11+%  and I am not selling.   If you wish to lock in gains, please do, but I do not have a target to sell at this point.  When I traded this last year,  I just kept adding on the dips, eventually selling after a good long run.  Remember that weekly chart! This can run higher, even if it pauses.

 

GST –  I pointed this MAY 9th POP out out yesterday. Volume swelled.

 

GST – It popped above the 200sma, and then lost it.  I still think that this is going to run, and I like the volume.  If I wanted to own it, I would personally buy a starter position as a H&S break out,  and add if it follows through. It is safer to buy it if it closes above the 200sma.

 

CBWTF  – I own this as a starter position bought within a bullish base.  When it breaks out higher and runs, the gains could be good. It showed signs of life Thursday, popping up 10% and closing above the 50sma for the first time since January.  I bought this as a BUY & HOLD unless it really drops sharply.  I did so knowing that the sector is becoming bullish, a return to former highs is a 100% gain, anything less is still awesome.

 

 It is Friday and I  have posted tons of stocks this week in many sectors, so hopefully you have a watch list and are able to see which are acting bullishly and which may not.  I MAKE A CHECK LIST OF THE ONES THAT I LIKE, AND I CHECK IT EACH DAY.  We had stocks like SGH, COUP, QEP, SQ, CHUY, CAKE, SAIL, TWTR, CREE, MU, CY, TQQQ, SOXL, etc etc in the recent past.  Many are acting bullishly again, some are not  ( CASA & AQ  for example, were beaten down a bit).    LUNA  had earnings and I really liked the chart, but I also warned not to buy until they were released.  It dropped sharply yesterday after earnings, so I lost interest for now.  Other like SGH are perking up again.

As the USD dips down, other set ups mentioned  like  commodities may benefit. CLF, X, etc also  continue higher. This was CLF April 19th

CLF MAY 10 – After a sideways flag, follow through is taking place this week $7- $8.50.

 

So check your watch lists, some Commodities may react to a dip in the dollar too.

TGB & HBM looked to possibly be setting up & breaking out this week too.  TGB is a low risk buy to me, if it stays above the 50sma.  It needs follow through, but may get that with the USD  due to dip down.  Use a physical or mental stop near recent lows.

So there is an abundance of trading ideas out there right now- Enjoy your Friday trading!