FRIDAY MAY 19th

It is Friday, the last trading day of the week, so let’s review a couple of points of interest in the Markets, and then discuss a few more stock picks.

USD – The USD is heading toward resistance, but it can continue a bit higher.  I will discuss this further in the weekend report.

WTIC  – Oil did hit $72 and that rising wedge has price right at the Apex. I personally expect a dip to a dcl, and then ANOTHER run to new highs, and $74 has been a 2nd target of mine.

3 CHARTS FOR GOLD

GOLD – Gold made a new low on day 12.  Remember when I said that we could get a sharp drop and then a ‘pause’ ?  We are getting the pause.  I still expect more downside…

GOLD – What would really mess people up?  A solid bounce to back test the 200sma, because people might start buying thinking this is the big run, and …

GOLD – They could get this into the ICL.  I AM NOT SAYING WE WILL HAVE AN ICL on DAY 20, this is just an example to help you visualize a bounce & drop.   I could say this:

” If we bounce from right here, it could just be a back test and then roll over. If it breaks above the 200sma ( unlikely to me), that was a shake out. If we drop from here, we will buy later when the ICL is in place.”

So not much has changed going into the weekend, and the weekend report will cover expectations going forward. I will discuss some trades for our traders at the end of the report.  For some,  it may be best to sit mostly in Cash and maybe hold a few Miners while waiting for the next Buying opportunity in Precious Metals.   Why?  I think that the next low is really going to be an excellent buying opportunity.   The way the Miners were holding up when Gold dropped $20 on Wednesday really makes it feel like they are being accumulated and will rally strongly at the next DCL/ICL.    Gold is now near the lows, but go and look at 6 month charts of  GORO, KL, AKG, NG, etc.  They are hardly pulling back this late in an Intermediate Cycle. THAT IS BULLISH.

Enjoy your Friday trading.

~ALEX

LUNA –  From yesterdays report, We are still getting follow through as it recovers from what appears to be a shake out. Now a stop at the 50sma should be fine.

HK – This energy stock did not follow Oil higher, it has been building  a base.  The MACD has been climbing in a bullish manner too.  Volume started building and suddenly it Popped Thursday above the 50sma. It may run to the 200sma and pause or it may surge through, but I would expect it to make a run for the highs again over time. It is above the 50sma ( a buy), but is still inside the base. I would still consider this a buy.

NAT  – A shipping stock, NAT broke the down trend Thursday. It could be bought with a stop under Thursdays lows or that trend line.  As a Trader – I put a bid in for $2.21 in after hrs when I saw this and the order filled, so I own it right here.  I’m hoping for immediate follow through.

I want to review the expectations for the commodity trades mentioned recently again, using CLF.

CLF – CLF broke out and I expected this to eventually run back to the highs (form a cup).

CLF – It took a month, but CLF is back at the highs. What is my point.

CSTM – MAY 16 saw volume swell in CSTM, so I expected it to break & run. The RSI was strong.

CSTM – It is breaking higher, and this should also make it back to the highs too.

CSTM – And just a reminder of the bigger picture  🙂   BIG PICTURE  former highs are $32.

AKS  – I posted this yesterday, and even though it may stall at the 200sma, I expect a run to former highs here too.

AKS  – And it is also  getting follow through. Over time, I would expect this to work its way higher too, like CLF did…

LIKE CLF DID – So …

TGB  – I’ve pointed out TGB, but when it breaks out above the 50sma.  I already bought it, I like the set up, pushing on the 50sma.   When this breaks out …

TGB – If it moves to former highs, it would be a 100% move.  It may take just as long as it did to drop, which was 2-3 months, but the potential is there.  And Look at that MACD Divergence.  I really do expect this to break out soon-  keep it on your watch list & check it often.   Why?…

WRN  – Because when they break out,  they can just take off. I was watching this and didn’t expect this to take off before TGB. You can see that once they break out, it can be hard to get in. That is actually why I am in TGB now. I expect this.

CENX PERSONALITY  – The personality of CENX & FCX are that once they break out above the 50sma & downtrend after a long sell off, they seem to rip higher quickly, practically straight up.  See the Green Arrows.  CENX is at the 50sma and looks ready to break out.

CBDS  –  I bought this MJ stock as it crawled along the 50sma, expecting a break out.  It did…

CBDS  –  It has crawled along the 50sma.   On Thursday, CBDS dropped slightly below the 50 & 200sma, and thankfully it reversed higher again.  That is a sign that so far that 50sma that was acting as resistance, is now acting as support.  This could break higher in time too.

CBWTF  – After breaking above the 50sma recently and moving slightly higher day after day, it dropped down today to back test that area.  There was concern that the sell off would break down, so I drew the numbers of possible support prices on the chart.  It closed at $1.25- so far , so good.

CBWTF  – The volume was a bit heavy, so I am hoping that this holds up.  SO far, it back tested the 50sma and the down trend line.  Amazing how often this happens.

OGRMF – Possible Bull Flag in  OGRMF.  It has tagged the 9 sma in all of May, so Friday I’ll be looking to see if it reaches the 9sma again, and then moves higher.