Thursday April 5th- One By One

Todays report is more like a progress report.  By now, we all should know what we have been looking for, let’s take a look and see if,  One By One, we have made some progress.  Spoiler alert: We have 🙂 .

 

SPX – We have day 34 as the low at this point,. In the morning we saw a gap down and buying brought it back above the 200smaand even above the 10sma.  This was a swing low on day 2.

 

The swing low moving above the 10sma on what would be day 36 is a pretty good indication that will be the DCL . We dont have a trend line break,  but let’s say that we have 4 of the 5 things that I would look for to confirm a DCL,  so I am confident that these Lows should hold.  IF THEY DON’T HOLD HERE, WE ARE SO CLOSE THAT THE NEXT DIP WOULD BE A POINT THAT I WOULD SIMPLY ADD. I think we move higher from here.

 

SPX  SENTIMENT IS IN AN AREA WHERE BOTTOMS ( And double bottoms) HAVE FORM

 

 

DJIA  –  DOW moved above the 10sma hre at  24,112 –  At 2:30 p.m. Eastern time I posted this in the Comments,  the swing was confirming in SPX, DJIA, & IWM.

DJIA – By the end of the day,  it did not sell off into the close, in fact it moved higher. 24,264. This looks like the DCL an yesterday was Day 2 off from the lows.

EDIT:  Futures are currently higher, and Obvious a gap open is hard to buy.  They usually do close either within the first hr or by midday, but at times they can gap & continue to run.  If you own a few long positions, you COULD wait and see if  gap open closes to buy.  If I didn’t own any long positions, I would start a small position & add on a dip if we get one.

 

WTIC – With the OIL inventory report release,  Oil sold off and then reversed higher.  I still expect a drop later, and I have mentioned why, but On day 35, with a 50 day possible daily cycle, I figured that we could get a good bounce off of this trend line.

WTIC WEEKLY– The weekly is still a swing high at this point.

 

DWT #1 – So I sold my DWT as a trade, and mentioned that in the comments. I bought near $10 & didnt want to give it back. I saw the gap below and the trend line, DWT was at $11.50 ish.

DWT #2– It might drop down to the 10sma, it already filled this gap after I sold & posted the sell. It was still up 36 cents here, but closed up 1 cent in that gap.   I will probably look to reby this at the 10sma, depending on how OIL is acting.

 

USD – possible Bull flag, I have mentioned that I expect the USD to go higher.  Nothing has changed, this is only day 5.  The USD dropped & GOLD popped, but that changed as the day went on  ( as expected).

 

 

GOLD –  These POPS by GOLD are drawing in Bulls day after day, fearing that they are missing an upcoming rally.   The ICL is coming due, and since we use CYCLES,  we are not fooled into chasing Gold every time it rallies in the morning.  I do not think that we break above the Magenta line before the next drop into an ICL.  Miners were up quite a bit pre-market & at the open yesterday too…

GDX – They then sold off after tagging resistance again.  This is day 10, and day 4 was the peak ( L.T.) .  This can POP & CHOP around, but I don’t think that GDX will get above the 200sma in this daily cycle.  If it did, I would examine that extensively.  For now,  more sideways chop.

 

HMY BY REQUEST– This was one of the ones that was holding up & even running up higher. It now looks ready to drop too, so this is what I would expect.   I WANT TO OWN THIS ONE AGAIN  if it continues to act properly.

After seeing the ‘action’ in the Precious Metals  sector over the past few days or weeks,  and seeing HMY finally start to drop too,  I decided that I would sell my THM to lock in gains.  I did mentioned that in the comments too.  I owned a big block of THM,  so it was actually a decent gain, and I will buy it again later. Now I only own TRX, which remains above the 200 & 50 SMA.  I look forward to buying proper set ups in the future.

 

As for the General Markets,  I have mentioned here that I do own a few positions.  Even though the Markets were at FEB lows,  I pointed out many that are holding up well, resisting the sell off.  There is a very good chance that we are at the lows, so I was buying yesterday.  Even if we dropped again, it should not last for long.  In yesterdays report,  I Pointed out my charts here indicating the the Lows were either here or very close. We gapped down strongly and they closed higher than yesterday, closing above the 10sma.  That is the LOW RISK  BUY if you are buying TQQQ, UDOW, TNA, or UPRO,  so lets close this report and review some individual stock set ups.

Enjoy your Thursday trading!

 

 

~ALEX

 

GALT– I pointed GALT out the last week when it Popped,  and the next day it dropped.

GALT– When it dropped I figured that maybe it was going to tag that 200sma, but it gained 15% yesterday,  so it’ll either be choppy or its ready to take off higher.  I like the set up and it looks like it wants to go higher (I own it), but it still COULD drop to the 200sma..

 

WSO – From yesterdays report, this was pointed out as a very bullish chart, because the FEB lows took it down, the next selling tagged the 50sma, and it was ALREADY AT NEW HIGHS with the Markets selling off.

 

WSO – It gapped down  ( A buying opportunity) and now this one is on the way, a very bullish set up.

 

 

CREE from yesterday  –  I expected a tag of the 50, and hoped for a reversal

 

 

CREE –  Bingo!

CREE – The gap filled and it also landed on a break out back test. This is a low risk buy, easy to sell if it goes against you.

TWTR–  At a glance, this looks like a Bullish descending wedge and a gap fill.  My only hesitation is if this is lumped into the same group as FaceBook.  I also see a sharp drop, a bear flag, a sharp drop and a bear flag. Look for a break out higher to buy.

MU –  How about a tag and reversal at this 50sma too?

 

MU – Boom, I mentioned in the comments early on that a close here would be a bullish engulfing.   I still don’t expect a V-Bottom so if this stalls at the 10sma, and maybe takes back 30% of this candle,  I’d buy it or add if you own it & wanted more. If it just breaks higher?  Good for those that bought it.

 

SIFY – I pointed this one out  a few days ago.   Please read this chart  ( I wanted a low priced fast mover, so I actually bought this yesterday). This is still a low risk buy above the 50sma.

 

April 2 chart of SQ –  read the chart

SQ –  I have been pointing this one out for a while now, and this may be the ‘shake out’  that I was hoping for.  It needs follow through for a recovery, but I  bought it yesterday.  That was a tad risky below the 50sma,  but it is right at the 50sma now,  so it would be  a buy, especially if it gets follow through higher.

AQ – I’ve owned this one and mentioned it each day as one that did not break down over the last week of selling.  I added yesterday due to that fact,  a break above the downtrend line is a safer ‘buy’.

 

SAIL – I have mentioned this one & it could still tag that 50sma, but I did buy it anyway

I have also mentioned  others that I am watching, so you can look up like CASA, IO, WHD, SAIL, SQ, LUNA, HAIR, CURO, etc .

 

 

I STUMBLED ACROSS A FEW OF MY OLD RETAIL COMPANIES, AND I COULDN’T BELIEVE WHAT I SAW – Stocks like Under Armour, LULU, ULTA, NKE, etc used to be on fire, but all suffered various set backs. How are they now? Doing well. Let’s visit some other retail stocks too…

 

ETSY from yesterday  – I actually pointed ETSY out already, and it has been very strong.  T is currently consolidating recent gains, but a break higher would be a buy.

 I used to own  NIKE & UA in my long term accounts years ago.  They were maybe the best long term runs I’ve owned, and I used to mention them here frequesntly,  but UA  got caught in a sell off and I was stopped out with excellent gains.  How is it now?

 

 

UA– This is actually a buy,  and this 2 day burst was DURING the market sell off.  It filled a gap during the sell off, that is normal.  $19 ish price target. And…

UA WEEKLY – This weekly looks rather excellent.

 

M- MACYS? MACYS??  The FEB market sell off tagged the 200sma, the last sell off tagged the 50sma. IT IS AT THE HIGHS ALREADY.  This is acting correctly in a market that has many panicked.  It is NOT an easy ride, look at Dec through Feb, but it has just about doubled in 5 months.

BURL – What? Is this the old Burlington Coat Factory?  Feb lows were all that this one dropped into. It then went from $110 to $137  (current highs) as the markets sold off again.  CAN YOU BELIEVE THIS?    These retail stocks are doing excellent in this choppy sell off.

KSS WEEKLY – KOHLS is doing a bull flag after running from roughly $35 to  $67.  Normally one would buy the break of the flag with a stop at the apex.  This is a bit extended, so it makes me a bit reluctant to enter it up this high, but this is a very bullish stock. It has a target of $90+ actually.

KSS – The daily chart does look less extended ( That is what consolidations are for) and a break higher is low risk and worth a try if you like this sector & set up. Stop below the lower blue trend line.   AT LEAST it is not selling off when the markets did.

Look up your favorite retailer and see how their stock is doing. They seem to have struggled for a bit last year, but for most that I looked up, the recovery is real.