Thursday April 19th – Almost The Same

 

As mentioned in yesterdays report, I have several watch lists of a variety of sectors.  They run from Biotech, Medical Marijuana, &  Miners, to Energy, Commodities, and Tech stocks.  Oddly, they are still all setting up in a bullish manner, and after basing out,  they’re breaking upward and seem to all be running higher.  Let’s just cover a few of the essentials and basically conclude that things have remained bullish or basically the same, after Wednesdays trading.

 

SPX -This is day 12 and price stalled but remains above the 50sma. Look at February and you’ll see how price stalled around there at that time too.

 

TRAN – The good news is that the TRANSPORTS had some nice follow through and I would expect the other General Markets to follow.

I remain short term Bullish on the general markets and will continue to watch how this daily cycle plays out.  The trades like MU, SAIL, IO, CY, CREE, JBL, CASA, etc are still a buy & hold.

WTIC – After the Energy stocks started to break out & catch up to OILs run, I put this chart in the weekend report from April 13.  Oil remains bullish,  the COT has not been predictive, and I would expect a tag of $70-ish or maybe a tad more before resistance stalls the run. 1-2-3-4-5. That is strong divergence on the weekly chart, so I DO expect a pull back later, but that is NOT a lot of resistance on the left side of this chart.  Oil is bullish  ( expect some inflation at the gas pumps).

WTIC –  OIL is now nearing $70 and that is where it may find resistance

 

XLE April 10th – This was a big clue, and now the BASE was finished.  The break out happened last week, and Energy stocks became a buy.  I mentioned OAS, SN, WTI, SWN, AREX, AXAS, etc etc  as bullish set ups. I will discuss that laterin the report.

XLE – Once they broke from the base, they usually have built up a lot of energy, and they can run to recent highs.

 

NOTE: THIS IS SOMETHING THAT EVERY TRADER / INVESTOR SHOULD TRY TO UNDERSTAND

 

TO BE A SUCCESSFUL TRADER:  MARKETS CHANGE AS TIME GOES ON, AND WE WATCH THE CHARTS FOR CLUES ALONG THE WAY. IN FEBRUARY, GOLD WAS NEAR THE HIGHS, BUT MINERS WERE NOT BREAKING HIGHER, SO WE WOULD ASSUME BACK THEN THAT GOLDS ICL  WILL COME AND DROP GOLD DOWN SINCE MINERS WERE AT THE LOWS.  THEN WE LOOK FOR CLUES GOING FORWARD, ALLOW THE MARKET TO SPEAK TO YOU- AND LISTEN.

 

MARCH 22 – SO THIS IS WHAT I HAVE EXPECTED, SINCE MINERS DID NOT MOVE HIGHER.  1.  I EXPECTED A RUN TO THE HIGHS, 2.  NO BREAK OUT, 3. AND THEN A PULL BACK FOR AN ICL, MAYBE AS SOON AS MAY.

 

 

GOLD – SO FAR WE HAVE THAT RUN HIGHER, however,  over time MINERS are starting to look rise and look more bullish,  so we need to   adapt, and be flexible.   YES, The ABOVE CHART CAN STILL PLAY OUT,  but This does also look like it may be building energy to break out higher soon.  IF IT DOES, That is a big deal.   ** NOTICE THE HIGHER ICL IN DEC FROM JULY, SO THE NEXT ONE SHOULD BE A HIGHER ICL TOO.

GOLD – I HAVE REPEATEDLY SHOWN THAT ICLS COME 5, 6, or maybe 7 Months apart. IF DEC was the last ICL, we should look at  MAY, JUNE, or even JULY.  I’VE MENTIONED MAYBE THE MAT OR JUNE FOMC MTG AS A TARGET.  JUNE OR JULY  NOW GIVES TIME FOR THE UNEXPECTED, A BREAK OUT, SO LET’s JUST ENTERTAIN THAT IDEA TOO.

GOLD BULLISH – THIS WOULD BE A BREAK OUT & BACK TEST ICL in JUNE or JULY.  I personally would love to see No Break out, and a drop as I originally expected, or a quick fake break out & roll over and that could happen, but Many Miners are now acting more bullishly. A drop below the 200sma into an ICL sooner than later would be great, but we MUST be ready to adapt if markets change, accept possibilities that seemed less likely before, and continue to read the charts.   THAT MEANS THAT I AM STILL HOLDING MY MINERS FOR A BIT LONGER.  You will see this chart again in the weekend big picture report.

SILVER – I mentioned a couple of weeks ago that I was buying Silver Miners and recommended holding a few.  I BEGAN TO SEE BULLISH SIGNS IN THAT AREA, so I adapted and went long.  Silver has been VERY Bullishly set up , and the COT is exceptional.  The Silver miners ran first ,and yesterday  Silver played catch up. NICE MOVE.

GDX – So what we have here is a right translated daily cycle, with a possible black short term topping candle.  IF Golds ICL is not going to come until June, this can dip to a dcl and make another run higher. For now, it has turned into a bullish base, but…

GDX – NOTHING has changed in this long sideways ‘big picture’ consolidation, right? Topping here has happened in the past, or ‘another run higher’ has happened in the past. Miners are  acting bullishly, but these moves are all similar until this breaks out.

FSM –  In the comments section I mentioned that I sold my FSM  (Still have my CDE, AXU, TRX, NAK, etc).   Why? Some Silver stocks have been running strong for weeks before Silver popped, and I just wanted to lock in gains for now.  This could bull flag and keep going, but it looked like it is overbought.  NOT everyone should sell, I am a trader by day…

 

These are 3 FSM charts from last weeks report, showing why I DO stil want to own FSM again.

I DO want to own it, but I thought we could see a pull back and I want to buy more shares with the gains on a back test, and I drew this last weekend.

 

 

FSM BIG PICTURE-  I do want to own this one, but last Friday  I drew this run higher & back test. We had the run higher now.

FSM – Again, I DO want to own it, it can run to $10.

 

 AT THIS POINT THERE IS NO REAL CHANGE, BUT THERE WILL BE PULL BACKS ALONG THE WAY FROM TIME TO TIME.  THAT IS NORMAL. KEEP AN EYE ON INDUSTRIAL METALS STOCKS, THEY MAY BE COMING TO LIFE TOO.

I TRIED TO MAKE THE DAILY REPORTS THIS WEEK A BIT MORE DETAILED, BECAUSE I WILL BE AWAY THURSDAY NIGHT & FRIDAY MORNING.  I MAY ONLY HAVE TIME TO POST 1 OR 2 CHARTS FRIDAY MORNING, MAYBE 2 BUY SET UPS? MAYBE 2 CHARTS OF IMPORTANT CHANGES?  AT THIS POINT, I THINK WE ARE ALL WELL INFORMED OF WHAT TO LOOK FOR UNTIL OUR WEEKEND REPORT.

 

ENJOY YOUR THURSDAY TRADING!

 

~ALEX

 

 

MU – An old favorite,  this was MU at 11 a.m.  It was holding the 50sma, and looks like a normal back test of the Feb break out.  This is a low risk buy. It closed at $54, but this can run to $60+, if markets remain bullish.

IO –  This was in yesterdays report & other past reports. Weeks ago they released earnings,  announced early pay off of debt, and have bullishly held the 50sma during the market sell down.  I see an inverse H&S, this is still a buy too, especially if it tags that 50sma again.

SQ – On April 10th I bought SQ & posted this break of a down trend

 

 

SQ – It has bounced around the 50sma, but looks ready to run.  If you bought it, it is a HOLD.  I think that it can still be bought down here near the 50sma, before it runs and gets too extended to be considered a ‘low risk’ entry.

CLF – Many commodity ( metals) Stocks started shaping up.  I was watching AKS, X, CLF, SID, HBM, FCX, AA, CENX, etc etc and captured this at 10:30, but it actually closed right at the 50sma.  This could be a buying opportunity.

X–  Take a look at charts of  X, AKS,  HBM, TGB, etc and they are moving out of bases & pushing on their 50sma.  THIS may be the next bullish set up ready to run.  I would wait for a strong push or a close above the 50sma – that could be considered a buy.  You can buy it here with a stop under recent lows too, if you see volume increasing like we see with ‘X’

AKS –  Some of these may crawl under the 50sma, and then break out

NAK #1–  I posted this at 10:30 a.m. in the comments section. I mentioned that I added, even though it didn’t break out above the 50 yet ( It did break it later). Another reason that I like NAK…

 

NAK #2 – The WEEKLY shows the weekly 200ma, once acting as resistance,  is supporting price.

 

This is funny : I’ll explain at the end

 

OAS – When I saw ENERGY break out & start running, I recommended a few energy stocks.  I liked OAS , first down at $8.20, and again here at $8.75.

OAS – After slowly climbing higher, it really accelerated Wednesday, now at $10.20.   Great %-Gains so far.

SN – I pointed out the round bottom here and it was a buy as it broke the 50sma. I could see it running to the 200sma, as shown

SN – Still has upside potential after a small consolidation above the 50sma. I’d still buy it here,  because these are really moving out.  But why did I say  “This is funny?”

SWN –  April 10 – I liked SWN too and took a good size position near $4.40, and

SWN – I’m up 13 cents.  HILARIOUS.  The one that I BOUGHT has lagged terribly.  🙂   This DOES look like it wants to break & run like the others, but it has been trying my patience. I’d still call it  a bullih set up & a buy though.

ESPECIALLY when I see some of these other ENERGY stocks. This sector is catching on fire.

AREX –  So maybe we want to buy this POP as it crawled under the resistance and finally burst higher. This sector is coming alive, and the laggers could play catch up now. I WOULD SAY THAT THIS IS A BUY TOO, if you are looking for a low risk energy stock.

 

 

REMINDER: IT IS BEST TO CHECK EACH STOCK OUT AND FIND OUT WHEN THEIR NEXT EARNINGS REPORT COMES OUT.  IT COULD BE A NICE SURPRISE, BUT AS WE ALL KNOW, IT COULD BE BAD NEWS AND A DROP IN PRICE.  AGAIN, FRIDAYS REPORT WILL BE A SHORT ONE.