Friday April 20th

So far in the markets it seemed like Everything had been taking turns moving higher, right?  Aa a lean Green fighting machine, we’ve seen Tech, Biotech, Oil & Energy, Precious metals, metals and miners all enjoying a day in the limelight.  All the charts are looking great!

….Or are they?

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On a day when the NASDAQ had what would be considered a normal healthy pull back,

SOX ( Or SOXL) Semiconductors – Suddenly yesterday,  behind the beauty cracks appeared.

On the SOXL chart above, that was some heavy volume after tagging the 50sma twice and being rejected. Lets take a look at a few stocks in the semi conductor sector, and remember that Market Analysts  say the semiconductors often lead the tech markets.

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I’m NOT trying to scare people out of their good positions, and I do still own SAIL and CASA since they haven’t violated any of my boundaries, but I am tightening some stops and If we continue to see this sector break down, we may want to view it as a warning sign for the General Markets.

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AMAT– I found about 10 companies in this sector that acted the same way.  Notice with the following stocks, we see

1.  Heavy selling with a  weak MACD on the last climb higher,

2. The RSI is dropping, and the stochastics is overbought, so there is more room for downside.

CY – This had recently regained the 50sma, but lost it on increasingly heavy volume yesterday too.

MKSI – This looked great 2 days ago, and suddenly it is rather ugly. In just 2 days this got ugly.

SLAB– Also climbing nicely, until yesterday. We see a large volume sell off.

ENTG – Back at 2018 highs, ENTG dropped 7% on heavy volume too. Notice that,  as it reached the former highs,  The MACD & RSI were weak.

Like I said, many other stocks in the tech sector do still look fine. The point is that if the Semis tend to lead the Tech Sector and now they could be showing that something is starting to go wrong behind the scenes, this could be another crack to appear in the general markets.

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For weeks I have been saying that my Quarterly and Monthly charts indicate that a top or consolidation seems to be developing in this Bull Market, and that money may rotate out and into inflationary safe havens or commodities.  I have specifically said that THE SILVER SET UP  Looks excellent, and if Gold breaks out above the base that it is forming,  the rally in this sector can be VERY rewarding.

THE GOLD BASE  FROM AUGUST 13 – This base looks ready to break out and run in the near future. If not now, most likely as it comes out of the next ICL. Excellent money will be made as Miners run higher tacking on double or even triple digit gains again.

Topping and Bottoming in the markets is usually more of a process, not an immediate reaction.    That said, I have simply mentioned what my Big Picture analysis is pointing toward, and stated that I would continue to look for clues along the way.  This weakness in the semiconductors might be another clue or piece  of the puzzle that points to my Big Picture analysis slowly playing out…

Enjoy your Friday trading and your upcoming weekend!

~ALEX

For higher risk traders:  I have increased my position on some of the block chain trades that I have been pointing out with the recent pull back or sideways moves.  Again, they move QUICKLY, but they ( and Bitcoin) Look bullish in the short term, and maybe even longer term.

BITCOIN

I added to MGTI

GROW dropped to the 10sma

GROW – GROW reversed yesterday and tried to regain the 50sma. Can it still drop to the 200sma ( green line?) Yes, but the sector looks to be turning bullish and if BITCOIN rises, that may be what is turning these higher.

GE  – GE has been selling off relentlessly.  Today they released their earnings and it is set to jump the 50sma and open just under $15.  MAYBE its troubles are behind it?  If you are interested, you  could put it on a watch list  – maybe look for a gap fill or back test.

I also still like the Medical Marijuana sectors action, as it pulls back from a recent surge higher