April 21st – Not A Whole Lot Of Change Here

With Mondays trading, we didn’t see a lot of change, and our expectations remain the same, so let’s do a Tuesday Morning review…

 

SPX  – This should be a 1/2 cycle dip, and we need to see price break higher soon. I expect that it will back toward the recent highs, and if it does, this current action could look like a shake out at the 50sma.  So far, the move out of the lows has been a sideways consolidation.

 

 

Here is something that I want you to see.  When this Feb bottom in the SPX, NASDAQ, and DJIA began to form, I said that we would have to see how it moves after the bottom is finished forming.  It could be a sideways consolidation that eventually leads to a continuing bull, or it may be a topping process. So…

 

 At this point, if you look  at this consolidation period in the IWM, it does somewhat resemble the sideways move in Oil (which broke out higher). Look at this chart and then scroll down to OIL, you will see the similarity. So this COULD resolve upward and I do expect it to run higher out of the lows at least briefly. After that move, we need to look for weakness or strength. The quarterly charts looked toppy.

WTIC  – Oil dropped quite a bit on Monday morning and then reversed higher off of the 10sma into the close (the 8 ema is shown, but it looks cleaner on the 10sma).  It is early in this daily cycle at day 9, so Oil as I mentioned in last weeks report, Oil can run to $70 before a back test .

 

XLE – And our energy run dropped to the 10sma over the past 3 days and reversed too. No guarantees, but this is often a 1/2 way move, so the XLE  ( ERX is your 3x etf) should run higher to complete a large cup as expected.

 

I drew this chart of the USD last week

USD– It has moved s expected.

GOLD – This was one of the ideas in the weekend report for GOLD, if it didn’t break out higher first.  It could drop and give us a dcl (  or ICL), maybe near the FOMC.

 

GOLD April 23rd – Gold did break down. MAY 2  ( Next Wednesday)  is the FOMC meeting, and that might be perfect timing for a low in precious Metals and a peak in the USD.  We will continue to watch this play out.

 

SILVER – Silver broke out last week and started to do a nice slow back test Thursday & Friday. On Monday, someone stepped on the gas pedal, and it slammed down. FOMC is day 30 for Silver. This looks like a bull trap that drew in ‘longs’ and now will stop them out.

GDX – A peak on day 20 should make this a R.T. Daily cycle.  I’m still wondering if Miners will hold up as GOLD & SILVER sell down. This could find support at the 50sma, bounce, stall, etc until lows are in place. Miners could drop or bounce around until day 30 too.  And  when GOLD & SILVER sold off fairly strongly…

 

Some Miners did not even sell off

 

AKG – This kept climbing with GOLD down 3 days in a row

 

TRX – TRX ran higher and sold off gradually, but remained green too.

 

PZG – Wow!  So even  while GOLD sold off last Thursday, Friday, and Monday, some individual Miners are being accumulated.

 

GORO – And some that sold off have not really been selling off drastically  ( so far). This is encouraging for the sector, but not helpful when trying to buy the dip.

 

THM – THM has more than doubled since the DEC ICL, and it looked to be bull flagging, but has finally begun to sell down.  This helps us to see that patience pays off.  It is best not to chase until we see how these act heading into the FOMC Meeting & the timing for a DCL or ICL.

 

 So the markets and the ideas that we have discussed remain the same for now. I (and many of you) have been holding a few positions in a number of sectors and continue to watch how these sectors play out.

The General Markets  should try to recover the 50sma and run higher.

OIL & Energy has been strong & looks like it wants to make another run.

The USD is moving higher.

Precious Metals dropped and will likely drop further as the USD runs higher.  The timing for the Gold , Silver, and Miners seems to match right around the FOMC Meeting next Wednesday for a possible low. That will be day 30.

This does NOT mean that Miners drop down for the next 6 or 7 days straight, but it means that we should expect to head lower over the next week. I do not really expect a low in GOLD until sometime around that Fed Mtg.   Even though the action has been a bit slow and boring on a day to day basis, this is how set ups form.  The precious Metals / Miners may be setting up over the next several days for a buying opportunity. We will stay alert to opportunities that may develop.  Monday was rather boring, we’ll see if the action can pick up a bit for Tuesday…

Enjoy your Tuesday trading

 

~ALEX

 

AREX – Though some Energy stocks are extended and others are at lows looking lack luster,  AREX is near the lows, but it may be ready to go.  It lost & tried to regain the 50 & 200sma. Volume keeps popping, and if this breaks higher, consider it  a low risk buy with a stop under Mondays lows.  It could be viewed as an inverse H&S forming.

PROGRESSION OF A BLOCK CHAIN TRADE

 

I would love to see this sector remain bullish, because these, along with the Marijuana sector,  could start stair-stepping higher & give low risk entries on the pull back.  The gains , when you catch these right, are large %-Gainers.   I have mentioned MGTI, GROW, SSC, SRAX for weeks now.  I am trading some of these, and some here may want to also, so I am also showing them as they progress.   If this sector remains bullish,  I want you to be familiar with how these move.  They traded VERY WELL for me last year.

Let’s LOOK AT THE PROGRESSION OF A BLOCK CHAIN TRADE

MGTI –  April 13, a BUY as it broke the 10sma, Extremely oversold, nice volume.  Price $ 1.30

 

MGTI BIG PICTURE POTENTIAL

 

MGTI LAST WEEK– I mentioned it again last week as it went sideways along the 10 sma. I also  added to my buy point, patiently waiting as it rides the 10sma.

 

MGTI – 3 days later it is pushing on the 50sma with 35% gains.  I usually sell 25% or 50% here to lock in gains.  This is why I am trading them, we get strong moves.  SSC & SRAX did the same kind of move and are now taking a rest.  Even a small position would have been rewarding for a short term trade.

 

HVBTF DAILY  – Another Block chain set up, so again, this is NOT for everyone.  When they get above the 200sma they may be more bullish over all, but I am reporting them here so you get used to watching how they move.  I think that this is a bullish set up and I posted this in the comments section. It is breaking above the 50sma and should try to run to the 200sma, a good % gain all by itself for traders.

HVBTF WEEKLY   – A break higher could really set off the weekly chart if this sector remains bullish.  Last year it ran from 18 cents to $8.25 —in—less—-than—2—months!  Crazy! It is a $1 lottery ticket, but the above daily chart leans to the bullish side.

XNET – I almost bought this twice off of the 200sma, but missed it completely so far. It continues to act bullishly, and I am watching to see if it drops to the 50sma. If it just runs higher, I will miss it again, but if it does tag the 50sma, I may buy a reversal there.  It is ON MY WATCH LIST.

 

ACAN -Medical Marijuana stocks continue to progress too. This could be considered a buy as it back tested and found support above the 10, 50, and 200sma. I won’t buy this one due to the light volume, but that may increase if this gets running.

 

CBWTF  – I think that this is preparing to break out higher. I own this here.  I also own KSHB and CNBX.

 

KSHB APRIL 16  – I bought KSHB on a break above the 10 & 50sma.  I mentioned here that watching for a pull back would be a low risk entry. A back test of the 50sma.

 

KSHB  – Pointing out the inverse H&S

KSHB  – Monday and KSHB has pulled back on light volume so far and tagging the 50 & 10sma.  I may add if it reverses and moves higher. It is basically a $5 stock that ran from $3 to $8.50 last Dec & January and has been consolidating those gains.

CANL  – CANL Popped on good volume, bull flagged sideways and started to pop again ( I dont really like the volume on most days here either, but I was asked to cover this one). It does look bullish, but the volume has been under 100,000 on most days.

 

CANN  – Are the Medical Marijuana stocks still acting correctly? Yes.  CANN ran from $2 to $8! It has now pulled back to $3.60 & reversed higher at support. THIS looks like it will eventually do another run higher, but it moves in such big waves, it is difficult to buy & hold . Yesterday alone was a 50  cent swing on a $4 stock.  Enter at your own risk and know your own pain threshold  🙂