4-28 Weekend Report

I have been covering the Big Picture in the weekend reports, and not a whole lot changed since the last weekend report really. That said, I will cover all of the market sectors that I usually do, and discuss the possibilities going forward. I expect this to me a week of increased activity (FOMC).

Knowing what my quarterly and Monthly charts showed for the General Markets ( Topping candle), there is still a chance that we get some upside and head into a consolidation period. That said, I want to discuss the more bearish side too.

SPX #1 – The more bullish view would look like this, with a bounce this week

SPX #2 – I lean toward overall weakness, since we have the Monthly & Quarterly charts showing a topping candle.  THAT CAN CHANGE, but for now?

Many of the General Market Tech stocks are showing weakness over the past couple of weeks. This isn’t the NASDAQ, but I am showing a bounce/ rally and a drop as a possibility. Read the important note on the chart.

SPX #3 – Double top & eventual Drop?

CONCLUSION:  So the Big Picture can still play out a couple of ways, but this does feel like distribution.  AMZN and INTC had favorable earnings, gapped open in a big way, and promptly sold off. Other Tech stocks just sold off.  I continue to admonish-  unless these conditions change, Proceed with caution in the General Markets.

WTIC – I’ve been thinking ( lately) that OIL could tag the 70 area and then begin a pull back. Divergence does show up on the recent rally to new highs.

WTIC – Daily cycles can be very long with OIL, so the spread of ICLs can be lengthy too. Read the charts, this is a possibility. Oil HAS been very bullish in the big picture though. (Typo = *Struggle).

XLE – XLE DAILY

USD #1 – The USD finally took off higher. Usually when I see this pattern, it is explosive to the upside, and I expect it to reach the recent highs, but it does not have to.  It is at Resistance with the 200sma.

USD #2 – I think that a run to 95 as shown is really unlikely, given that the USD is in a big picture break down. We’ll see how the USD acts after the FOMC Mtgs.

USD #3 ( Weekly) – This is where I expected the USD to rally to 92 and then roll over, allowing Gold to rally. In the less likely event that the USD rallied to 94 or 95 ( 200sma), Gold would likely drop deep into an ICL for June. The USD RALLIED last week, Gold dipped down

GOLD #1 – The USD rallied and Gold dropped. They are pretty much back to an inverse relationship. Gold is getting late in the daily cycle count and is coming due for a low.

GOLD #2 –  I have posted this each week as a reminder that an ICL comes often 6 months, but can be 5  ( has been 7 also). They are not usually quite as deep in a Bull Market as in a bear. MAY is 5 months, June is 6.

GOLD #2– ICLs  can be 5 or 6 months, May FOMC is the 5th Month and we are on day 28 as of Monday.  We are due for a low soon, a tag of the 200sma may happen this week.

SUMMARY FOR GOLD #3–  Just a guess, not an absolute prediction.

1. We are due for a low near day 30 +/-  ( FOMC). DCL or ICL.

2. We could dip down into the Fed Mtg as shown

3. It Could be an ICL if the USD just tops & FED causes the USD to roll over

4. It may be just a dcl for Gold. The USD suddenly looks a bit stronger, it may take another few weeks of topping and then roll over in June?

BASICALLY,  what I would do here with these circumstances is that I’d  go long Miners at the next dcl, and then I will look for clues as it moves higher to see whether or not we caught a final dcl ( raise stops)  or an  ICL – ride the wave.

GDX #1- Miners have been holding up, and as I have been pointing out for the past couple of weeks, some Miners are really leading the way. It is giving the sector some bullish appeal.

BPGDM –  This is quite noteworthy. Look at last Julys ICL in Gold to it’s September peak in this BPGDM. Then go to the Dec ICL and what has happened since then. Do you see the improvement for Miners, though GDX & GDXJ are only going sideways? This tells a bullish story for Miners.

GDX #2- The Big Picture still has the GDX  right in the middle heading into the FOMC Meeting, so…

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GDX is basically mid point again.  In the past it breaks up or down from here, right?

1.  GDX could quickly drop as gold finds the DCL, and then rally off the lows

2.  GDX could stay here & rally out of mid point as Gold comes out of a dcl.

3. Either way, GDX can be bought when Gold has a dcl in place- we are on day 28.

So the markets really haven’t changed very much from last weekends Big Picture Report. The daily cycles in Miners have aged, and now we are on day 28 as of Monday.  Precious Metals daily cycles usually bottom anytime around day 28-33, but some have extended beyond.  WED/FOMC is day 30- so timing wise, we are close to a bottom.  Will this be a 5 month ICL?  Will the ICL be 6 months, and this will just be a final daily cycle, and a weaker one if that is the case? We will know soon enough, but for now I think that we will get a buy / DCL this week in Precious Metals and some Miners are already chomping at the bit  ( BPGDM).

Of course we will continue to analyze things in our daily reports day by day.  I do still own my Miners.

Enjoy your weekend!

~ALEX

SIMPLE REMINDER: The new Fed Chairman has spooked the markets in the past. That can change, markets can adapt, but for now, he is 0 – 4 with 2 FOMC Mtgs starting a sell off, and 2 ‘testimonies before congress’ starting a sell off too.  The odds seem to be against a market rally after the FOMC Mtg.