Tuesday March 13th

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The General Markets did not have any major change from the weekend report, but there was divergence. While the NASDAQ & SOX continued higher at new highs,  SPX & DJIA  stalled.  We’ll continue to keep an eye on things.  Today I am presenting some trade ideas, set ups, and another review of what I am looking at in a few different sectors.

 

WTIC – Oil dropped as expected, so the short trade is safe for now. My Stop is at the trend line & 50sma.  The inventory report Wednesday will either help or hurt this set up though.

USO  – I posted this in the morning in the comments section to show that the short trade is still o.k.  I’m using DWT , but for those not liking ETNs,  SCO is an ETF that you can use.

 

USD –  -Interestingly, the USD has peaked on day 8 and continues to struggle at the 50sma.  SO far the USD has basically gone sideways and the Precious Metals also have gone sideways.  IF the USD drops, Miners could pop in the short term.

 

GDX – A week ago I pointed out that this set up as short term bullish looking, especially if it could break above the trend line. I also mentioned that I owned AG & HL (and  AKG, but I sold AKG already).

GDX – GDX popped and back tested that trend line.  With the USD struggling at the 50sma, Miners put in a reversal and regained the 10sma.  This could run to  the 50sma, but it would still just be sideways chop until it breaks out higher or lower.  Feb lows are still the lows of this daily cycle.

 

 

SILVER has more of a bullish set up than Gold.

 

AG – I said that I bought AG when they released earnings,  Gold & Silver dropped, and AG did not sell off.  I wanted to see if it could run higher early in the daily cycle, so far it is just chop.  I might sell if it cant break out higher soon and try to catch it lower later.

FSM – The Silver COT is bullish, and the Silver stocks do look more bullish than bearish, but anything can happen in this choppy consolidation.

 

HL – I still own my HL and it too has been sideways chop, but I haven’t been stopped out or had any real reason to sell yet. HL is at the 50sma.

MAG –  That was a pretty big move in MAG SILVER Monday too.

Some Gold stocks did well yesterday too, though it still has been a sideways choppy sector …

I think ultimately this sector may still just go sideways as we head into the March 21 FOMC Mtg. I own a couple of Silver stocks and that helps me to keep track of any interesting developments and I thought that the reversal with the USD at the 50sma was interesting for now.  It is not really actionable, but maybe I can get a pop in my Miners and sell a bit higher and look for another entry later.

 

3-D Printing

 

DDD–  After a slam down/ gap down to $8, DDD seems to have bottomed and is now up 50% off of those lows. It broke above the 50sma, back tested it and popped higher last week, It looks to be a bull flag and may continue higher after tagging the 10sma.   I am showing this one because you could buy this at the 10sma or …

XONE –  Another 3-D Printer trying to move off of the lows might be XONE.  It broke above the 50sma and is bull flagging along it right now.  A buy could be either here with a stop under the 50sma, or a break above the bull flag trend line.

Also take a look at SSYS and VJET and you will see that it appears that this 3-D Printer area itself may be rising off of the lows .

 

 

MU  – MU reached the initial measured move in the $60 area, and is fairly overbought here. The high volume top could be distribution, since the price dropped into the end of the day. I would have at least sold 1/2 today, even though  it can extend higher.

 

BIOTECH

 

Many Biotech / Pharma stocks are setting up and some are running strong. These are a few setting up, but please check and see when earnings may be released, since these can move very fast during earnings or news releases pertaining to the FDA.

 

 ALT -Breaking above the 50sma, this is a low risk entry with a stop under the 10sma.

INFI –

CVRS – Volume buying is popping this price and with sellers drying up, I would expect a break out & run soon.

 

CGIX – Breaking above the 50sma after a flat base, this could run too.

 

GALT– I pointed this one out last week and now it has done the break out & is back testing to support.

See also CRIS, ABIO, EYES, IBIO, VSTM, XENE, SRRA, CASA as others in this sector that have shown signs of life, etc

 

MJ STOCKS

 

A couple of weeks ago I pointed out what I have been looking for in Medical Marijuana stocks.

On FEB 28th I posted this set up when TWMJF was $21, it looked ready to break out from a down trend.  –  Please read the chart.  I also posted a couple of others.

TWMJF  – The next day it broke that downtrend and the 9 or 10sma and now it has back tested the 34 sma. Basically in 1 month it went from $16 to $16 ( over 50%).   The reversal on the 34 sma yesterday is also a buy as this looks to be forming a cup , heading back to Jan highs and possibly higher.

MYMMF – I bought this under the 10 sma and I must admit that I did expect a possible strong surge higher.   Instead it began to consolidate, but I have not sold it because it has held the line. See the next chart…

MYMMF  – March 12 and it is still holding up above the trend line & 10sma. This sector is beginning to act correctly.

ACBFF  – I also own this one and it moves fast. This was $7.50 at the end of Feb and ran to $9.50 in days. Now it is moving sideways along the 10sma, but broke above the 34 sma Monday.  Lets see if this can now move higher this week.

SO I have mentioned in prior reports that I am watching this sector and as things play out, you can also see whether or not these remain bullish and whether you wish to participate.  Currently I think that we have some leaders and the rest will follow.  I have explained what I am looking for in this sector .

 

 BLOCKCHAIN

 

I was also watching BLOCKCHAIN stocks, because this sector also gave us Very Strong gains at the end of last year.  After a strong run higher,  you get consolidation, and then you can see if they begin to perk up again.  Maria pointed out some %-Gainers in the comments at the end of Mondays trading, and as you will see, it DOES look like this sector may be beginning to show signs of life again too.

 

GBTC  – GBTC has already doubled and pulled back 50%.  Look at the November run.  Lets say $7 to $37 in a month and a 1/2.

 

MARA – This small POP was a 60% surge out of the lows. They announced that they are now Mining for Bitcoin. This ran from $1 to $10 in 3 days last November.   PLEASE KNOW THAT THESE DROP AS QUICKLY AS THEY POP. THESE ARE FOR EXPERIENCED TRADERS and losses MUST be cut quickly.

 

GROW – I see some pretty good divergence in the MACD as Price dropped to a lower low and the MACD did not. This is oversold and it MIGHT be ready to break out ( I also use the 10 & 34 sma on most of the Blockchain stocks).  If you bought the POP on Feb 12 it ran from $3 to $4  and back.  It was Not quite ready yet.

NETE  –  So, this ran from $5 to $15 in days. Yes, this could run right to $30 the way that these go,  BUT if you jump in and it bull flags or drops to the 10sma, it could cut you in half!   So this just goes on a watchlist and you may find a set up in a few days if it pulls back.

DPW –  After a couple of larget % Pops that were false starts, this is pushing on the 10sma. It is oversold and the sector seems to be reacting bullishly. AN EXPERIENCED TRADER can enter a position and watch it, since this 4 day sideways move may be the lows.  The volume did POP on Monday.

 

 And we traded  SRAX, MGTI, DWP, SSC, GROW , MARA etc  at the end of last year, so these are others that you might want to take a look at and see how they move over the next few days.

 Todays report is showing some trade ideas and trade set ups, along with what I am still looking for in the Medical marijuana sector and Blockchain sector for the more experienced traders.   Please understand that SOME OF THESE can be VERY FAST trades and dangerous for inexperienced traders.  BLOCKCHAIN STOCKS  can drop 30% in a day as easily as they move higher by 30%.    When it comes to the less experienced traders or those that prefer trending stocks, Patience for pull backs in Tech stocks and the next set of lower risk trade set ups may be best for you.   New England is going to get another North Easter Snow Storm Today, with 1-2 feet of snow expected.  I may be on the road later and again tomorrow, so I may not be in the comments section able to answer questions or tell you what I bought or sold real time.

Enjoy your Tuesday trading!

 

~ALEX

 

84 replies
  2. Bill
    Bill says:

    Alex, a couple of questions. Why do you think AG looks bullish? I look at it, and expect it to pullback after tagging the trend line. FSM looks more bullish to me.
    CGIX I would expect a back test like GALT? What am I missing?

  3. Ron Futch
    Ron Futch says:

    Issue with low price bios are none of them make money and after a run up you can almost always expect an offering for more cash infusion, as I result I usually day trade them, although you can occasionally get a NKTR that runs from 2’s to 110 🙂

    • RonB
      RonB says:

      Ron if I ever mess with them I take a look at the balance sheet to see if they have an immediate and desperate need for cash. Some of them are amazingly strong and are fully cashed up others can make you barf. I just look at the current assets vs the current liabilities – it takes about 2 minutes once you get good at finding the source, and can save you a ton of heartache.

      • Tammie
        Tammie says:

        I usually check current assets and liabilities too, like you said it only takes a minute to check…..and I pop over to the income statement to see if they’ve made any money yet 🙂

      • chartfreak1
        chartfreak1 says:

        Yep – Got a bit choppy and even though I wanted to see if OIL or USO would get above the 50sma or not, but decided to just step off and watch from the sidelines.

          • chartfreak1
            chartfreak1 says:

            Yeah, I voluntarily jumped out as it moved higher and then started dropping because of the inventory report tomorrow. I over thought it.

            Now DWT & SCO are going to have a strong volume up day, and USO will have a ‘Rejected at the 50sma” day.

            I would like to get back in, but the Oil Inventory report may get a bit choppy, so I might wait and see what happens tomorrow. I have a feeling that Oil sells off tomorrow though

          • Cason
            Cason says:

            I’m still in, but I have a pretty small position so feel I can weather the inventory report. Expected DWT to jerk around a bit.

  7. BayTrader
    BayTrader says:

    Mentioned taking a size in GNMK yesterday at 4.96 an 5.00 – Up another 5% today. pretty happy. This base is great

  11. RonB
    RonB says:

    I think it was Steve that made a comment about the time of the day that the low usually comes in at. If I recall he said 10:30 EST. Is there any pattern to the daily trend? Steve are you here?

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      If you are asking, because you want to jump in, you may want to wait for a reversal.

      I’ve seen markets gap open and slowly sell off all day long, making new lows hour after hour.
      If you look at a bearish engulfing , for example, it is usually a sell off that day, then next, maybe the next.

      • RonB
        RonB says:

        I’m not wanting to jump in – I would like some of the selling to stop. If we are at day 21 of this cycle and I’m not sitting on huge gains to give back this time so just taking a few protective steps.

        • Steve Tytler
          Steve Tytler says:

          Ron, more friendly advice. Trying to trade around dips in TQQQ is very difficult. You have to time your exit and entries perfectly. Almost every time I have sold TQQQ in the past it was a mistake because I had to buy back in higher later. The exception, was last month’s massive correction where I sold TQQQ as it went down and I was able to “sell low and buy lower.” But I tried to do the same thing on the “Half Cycle Low” Feb 27- March 2 and I ended up buying back all of my TQQQ at about a $1 higher average cost from where I sold, so it was a futile effort. I’ve been watching and trading TQQQ for a few years now, and unless it breaks the 50 day MA and I’m staying “all in.”

          • RonB
            RonB says:

            Thanks Steve – I am forever guilty of getting scared out of my positions, and I did lighten up quite a bit today and took profit, but the good news is there are numerous stocks setting up so I can easily participate again. I do my own amateur-grade cycle analysis at the end of each day, and right now, what is happening, particularly with the leading stocks, exactly matches my chart patterns for a peak in this DC so I have to accept that and get out of the way for now. If history repeats then I am probably going to regret it, but I only booked a minor loss in one stock that was dogging it so taking the profit home doesn’t hurt.

          • Steve Tytler
            Steve Tytler says:

            Tight stops have cost me more money over the years than loose stops, but that is easier said than done. The key is to load up heavy at a deep low (ICL) so you have some profit “cushion” to ride out the dips.

          • RonB
            RonB says:

            I’m learning veeeeery slowly…… The next ICL I intend to take a couple of different approaches that will have me “place” some dollars so I can get away from the non stop staring and clicking.

          • Peter
            Peter says:

            Amen to that. I echo those sentiments. I got stopped out on the half cycle low too and re-entered higher. My stops were too tight.

    • Steve Tytler
      Steve Tytler says:

      Hi Ron,

      I’m lurking here every day but not posting because as I said last week, I’m 100% invested in TQQQ and SOXL and I plan to hold it all until sometime in May/June when the ICL tops, so I’m not making any trades. However, to answer your question, TQQQ (and other indices) typically bottom between 11:30 AM to 12:30 PM ET (8:30 AM to 9:30 AM for me on the West Coast) on days where the morning rally rolls over. You can see that today where TQQQ bottomed about 12:05 PM. As of now (1:00 PM ET) TQQQ is showing signs of a bullish reversal on my 15 min chart … but as Alex says, that does not necessarily mean the selling is over.

      I was expecting some selling this week in TQQQ, that’s perfectly normal. It can’t go up every day. Notice that TQQQ bounced off its 5 day EMA today. If you look at the run in January, it often dipped down and touched the 5 day EMA and bounce back. A drop to the 9 day EMA or the 10 day SMA would not be unusual, in fact a touch of the 10 day SMA would be a good buying opp IMO … if it happens.

      For me, I’m massively invested and not making any trades. For years, I have said “if I just put all of my money into TQQQ for the year and forgot about it I would be doing great.” This year I’m actually trying to put that plan into practice after loading up very heavy at the ICL bottom on February 9th.

      BTW, if you bought TQQQ on January 2nd at the closing price, which was near the high of the day, and held through that massive slam down in February, you would still be up 26% today.

      Something to think about.

      • Steve Tytler
        Steve Tytler says:

        As I posted earlier, I expected some selling in TQQQ this week so today’s action does not bother me at all. As Alex says, this is a bearish engulfing daily candle so I expect more selling this week and TQQQ will likely fill the gap from 3/8 to 3/9. That would be a dip to about the 9 or 10 day MA and MAY be a buying opp for those who want to hop on the TQQQ train. As always, check your own charts and make your own trades. I’m not doing anything but hanging in there with what I have. Sucks giving back gains from the past couple days, but that’s part of the game. I don’t care where TQQQ is tomorrow or the end of the week, I care about where it is in May.

        • Peter
          Peter says:

          Looks to me like the Naz just backtested it’s breakout if you draw a horizontal line from the Jan. 26 high.

  16. Peter
    Peter says:

    Pretty mild pullback so far. I see a test of the 5 dma on the Dow. SPX and Naz couldn’t even reach the 5 dma. This seems like a moving average catch-up day so far.

    • Cason
      Cason says:

      Was there any news? The averages were powering higher earlier and then gave it all up pretty quickly. What gives?

  18. Cason
    Cason says:

    Well, that’s annoying. Woke up middle of the night (randomly, NOT to check) and checked markets at the open real quick, so SPY and LABU both at recent highs and surging out of the gate. Went back to bed until normal time and woke up to being stopped out. Ugh. These were short-term for me, should cut n’ run. #overconfidenceKills

    Still in TQQQ, no changes there, just took profit in LABU, all out SPY calls.

  20. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    I see so many interesting 6 month charts in Biotech.

    CUR caught my eye. TROV keeps Popping, APHB, CYTR

    ECYT PTCT CASA SRPT running strong out of bases

    I did but GALT today

    • BayTrader
      BayTrader says:

      CF, I still have my TNA… I want more but with todays candle would u rec holding off on adding?

      • Peter
        Peter says:

        CF obviously the arbiter, but TRAN was up today and closed above the 50 dma. Naz back tested it’s BO. A little BoW on SPY too.

        • BayTrader
          BayTrader says:

          I’m catching what you’re putting down brotha… just wondering based on the big bearish candles today, if I should wait for a little more draw down or just grab in after hours… TNA is a longer hold for me but if I’m going to avg up, I’d like it as low as possible lol

          • chartfreak1
            chartfreak1 says:

            I didnt see this reply yet, when I answered above 🙂

            You COULD grab some in after hrs, but look at TNA and the 50sma- you might get it there too 🙂

            I do expect more downside

      • chartfreak1
        chartfreak1 says:

        It is hard to know in a Bull market, because surprises come to the upside. but I think we are going to get a bit of continuation on the pull back.
        Many reversal candles. It can bounce around, get choppy, but I would expect more pull back.

        IF you are thinking of adding in A.H. since you asked at this time, you could add and use a tighter stop on the newer position just in case we continue higher, but what I am seeing seems to indicate some more selling still to come.

        I do see what Peter is saying with the TRAN, it does look better than others for the day, but that isnt really a bullish candle either, it too is a reversal. so I would say you will probably get a better entry later.

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