March11th – Weekend Wrap Up

If you have clocks that are not automatically calibrated ( Cell Phones and Computer clocks are, microwave oven clocks and wrist watches may not for example),  You want to turn your clocks ahead 1 hour this morning  🙂

SPX – The expectation on a possible a-b + c-d extension is shown in green. The pull back into a dcl and further upward gains is a possible cup & handle, but this is just one idea going forward.

This would follow what we have already seen with SOX & NASDAQ

SOX – The SOX ran to January highs, dipped to the 50sma, and has now broken out to new all time highs.  I am hearing  many saying how bullish this break to new highs is, and yes, it usually is.   This CAN be a very bullish situation, but it depends on the economy going forward too.  Notice also …

SOX –  Please take note that Januarys break to new highs were also a ‘break out to new all time highs’ , and yet they did roll over.  People forget very quickly what can happen, don’t they?   So lets enjoy the ride, but do not get complacent. Always rely on stops.

SOX –  I need to point out again, using the same chart what many seem to be missing.  Each new burst to ‘new highs’ was accompanied by internal weaknesses, like lower highs on the RSI.  This  OFTEN leads to choppy sideways consolidations, back tests, or roll overs, so we shall see in time…

NAZDAQ – And the NASDAQ is no exception when it comes to a non-confirming new high.  New highs, RSI WEEK, MACD not confirming .

So the idea is this:  I am long, I own SOXL and a few Tech STocks, and they are doing great.  I can ride these and see if some sideways consolidation allows the RSI to catch up.  I can sell a portion at highs and let some ride ( I do this most often).  I can use cycle timing and try to sell near a daily cycle high, but this is tricky.   Just know that you are going to hear ALL Bullish talk breaking out to new highs, and even though trades have been very good, we still need to be aware that dips, choppiness, etc can happen, and signs here are that we may get that  ( March 21 is the FOMC meeting, that may get a reaction?).   That said, I am Long & Strong unless it goes wrong  🙂   The first chart in this report is still a very valid expectation.

WTIC DAILY –  I am also still short Oil, and the COT remains quite bearish. This is the point that I would have to stop out.

WTIC daily  – I drew this way back in mid February as an expectation.

WTIC WEEKLY – This actually looks neutral with a high volume push higher last week, but I am still short.  The COT  shows smart money is Very Short, and this MACD still looks week.

Someone asked me , ‘Have you considered that Oil could break out higher as the markets break out higher?’   This report also could ask, ” Could the markets drop back down and Oil drops down too?’

USD WEEKLY –  So if the USD can continue higher,  Precious metals can drop. This looks like the USD can move higher. In the BIG PICTURE, it looks like a weak bear flag.

GOLD  – Gold has been choppy. The sudden surge higher of $16 on Tuesday was just another fake break higher, as expectated.

SILVER DAILY– Choppy sideways consolidation continues, unfortunately as expected.

SILVER WEEKLY –

GDX – Weeks ago in February I used this chart pointed out this sideways chop ( in the orange box) and mentioned that (Unfortunately)  we could see that until a solid direction comes into play.

GDX – And here we are weeks later sideways, choppy, and difficult to trade.  THIS IS NOT EASY TO TRADE, so we’ve focused on other trades.

Let me say this about the General Markets: If that was an ICL, we should not roll over & drop very soon, but the MACD & RSI seem to indicate a pull back and consolidation could occur. The First chart in this report is how I am leaning right now, I am bullish and taking things day by day with my trades. The dip shown can fix the RSI.   BUY & HOLD out of an ICL is your choice, but it isn’t always as easy as it looks in hindsight. I use trailing stops on ETFs.

I still think that 2018 may give us a break from the sideways precious metals consolidation, and a rally that will beat current trades by a lot will follow.  The markets make you wait at times, and they bore people to death until they actually just give up. I am seeing that now. Almost everyone wants to go long the General Markets and never trade Miners again.  That could mean several things  🙂  This is your weekend market wrap up, my daily reports cover the action as it unfolds.  Enjoy your weekend!

~ALEX

LESSON:  You will hear that the run above the 50sma and move to new highs always leads to bull runs. We need to at least take another look at that.

IF WE BREAK TO NEW HIGHS –   THAT’S IT– IT IS BULLISH AND JUST RUNS FOREVER HIGHER, JUST LIKE AUGUST NASDAQ 2015  ICL …

OR IS IT?  YES, IT BROKE ABOVE THE 50 SMA, Yes, it had a higher low, yes the 10 & 20 sma crossed the 50sma, etc etc etc .  AT THE HIGHS, THE RSI AT THE HIGHS WAS WEAKENING, and I take that as something to keep in the back of my mind.  This triple top gave plenty of time to notice the RSI was lower on each peak.  I am watching how things play out now too. A year of interest rate hikes might be something that changes things.  We’ll see.