FRIDAY March 9th

/105 Comments/in /by

Friday, the final day of trading before the weekend.

 

SPX – So far the SPX has not been able to push above the 50sma yet. A day 11 peak would not be a good sign for the General Markets, but I do think that this should be able to get above day 11, because…

 

 

NASDAQ – We have seen the leading sectors above their 50sma for a while now, and the SOX and NASDAQ are 2 of those leading sectors.  The SOX is actually breaking to new highs.  So the NASDAQ and SOX have been stronger then the SPX & DJIA and NYA so far.   NOTE:  This also is only a day 11 peak, but only by 2.08.   Watch for a push above 7438.09, that would most likely make this Right Translated.

 

WTIC  – Since Oils daily cycles can run very long, I would say that we have weeks of downside bias ahead.  It wont be straight down, and this could back test that 50sma again, but this looks set for lower prices.  Please read the chart.

DWT – Even though it has been a bit choppy too, I added to my DWT position, and if Oil drops the way that I think it should, DWT should get above $20 over time.  DWT is a 3x inverse ETN and may be too volatile for some.  SCO also works at a bit of a slower pace.

 

USD DAY 13 –  Let’s see if the USD can push above the 50sma and then move higher than the day 8 peak.  The day 8 peak was making this look like it would be Left Translated and roll over, but a push above day 8 would change this to R.T.  ( and this would probably push Gold lower).

GOLD  –  With a failed daily cycle behind us, and with Gold being rejected at the 50sma, Gold looks to be weakening  (MACD).  With the USD possibly about to push higher above its 50sma, Gold could begin to drop rather than just continue sideways.

GDX–  GDX was up while Gold dropped, but basically we are still just getting that choppy sideways move that I mentioned could happen, similar to last May 2017.  I am not long or short,  though I do own AG and HL.

 

General Markets have been bullish, but they are starting to get a bit deeper into  their daily cycle timing.

I an expecting OIL to continue to drop, and I am in DWT. It can bounce around, but I tend to doubt that it will close above the 50sma again, that is why I am in DWT.

The USD seems to be gaining some strength, and this could cause GOLD to drop now instead of just chopping sideways. I am not really shorting this sector,I do own a couple of Miners.   Below I will discuss a few trade set ups and ideas.  Enjoy your Friday trading and then your Weekend!

 

~ALEX

 

AQ –  A buy  from last week near the number ‘4’and in yesterdays report.  It was riding down this trend line , but remained bullish.

AQ – POP.  It really popped yesterday, up over 14% at one point. I think that this should be able to continue to run higher.  It may form a  bull flag or consolidation similar to the POP on Jan 30 & then a stall. I added at $15.40.

 

DWT – Again, I think that this will go higher over time.

 

VUZI Yesterdays chart –  I have pointed this one out on the 50sma, but it wasn’t getting any follow through. I still posted it as a ‘buy’ here on the 50sma yesterday, with a stop loosely below the 50sma.

 

VUZI – Vuzi slightly broke below the 50sma, and then reversed and started to move higher during the final hour of trading. I added to my current position and posted this chart in the comments.  This is a low risk buy with a stop below the 50sma.

GALT – I had a bid in for GALT, and it never came down and picked me up. 🙁 This just ran from $4 to $5.50, but I think that it can go much higher, forming a cup & even breaking out.  NOTE: It is biotech, and there are added risks in this sector,with FDA tests and ‘News’ reports from time to time,  so please keep that in mind.  I may buy this if it dips like Jan 4 & 5th.

VSTM – Some of us may recall how quickly VSTM ran higher last year.  I doubled my money on this one & then it went into a consolidation down to the 50 week ma. It MIGHT be ready to break out & run here pinched at the 50sma.  Good for the WATCH LIST or buy here with a stop.

 

HMY – I sold my HMY over a week ago to lock in profits.  Yesterday with Gold down, it hit new 9 month highs. Some Miners are bullish, despite Gold being down yesterday.

MU continued higher too, along with the other picks CREE, SQ,  and my newer pick JBL from yesterdays report.  JNL is still a buy, though it moved a bot higher yesterday. Let’s look at MU for a thought or two …

 

MU –   MU has now moved from a buy at $42.50   to $55.50, and it can go to $60.   At this point, I’m just pointing out the Gap and the idea that this could be getting extended and may drop down to fill that gap.   This also could start consolidating by forming a handle.  THAT WOULD BE A BUY.  This also could go on your watchlist, or if you own it, you could add on a dip to test the break out or the gap fill.

 

By Email Request: 

KEM – This one got cut in 1/2 in November on their earnings release( Bad).  Feb 1st they released earnings again and dropped from $21 to $16 (also bad), but they seem to be recovering at the 50sma support (good). With an improving MACD & RSI (also good) this could finish the overhead gap fill, barring any bad news releases. Next Earnings scare is not until May.

NOTE:  Steel Stocks got a bit choppy with the TARIFF talks yesterday,  but do not really appear to be damaged at this point.  From yesterdays report, NUE & STLD still look good.  CLF is ok, but needs watching.

 

 

 

 

 

105 replies
  1. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    The Jobs report will be released at 8:30 a.m,, and often we get a market reaction at that time.
    That means I have 1 hr to get a few things done 🙂

  2. Bill
    Bill says:

    Hi Alex, Sounds like you got twice the snow we did. It was heavy to shovel here, glad you made it through.
    This is kind of a general trading question. Lets say I have $100. I will typically make 10 trades at $10 each. Some stop out, some are winners of course. I read above that you add to your position a lot. Would it be better IF I bought 10 positions at $5 each then added to the winners as they proved themselves? That way the losers that stop out are only half the losses. I think that sounds logical. It sounds like that’s the way you approach it. Anyone, feel free to chime in here! Except #HB

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Yeah, It was very wet heavy snow, quite the work out. I guess Pepperil area & parts of Vermont got 3 feet? Thats the jackpot.

      The answer to your other question and most questions about my trading is that it is situational, and I do things based on how the trade is playing out. I trade all positions individually personally. I keep cash on hand to add if things are playing out as expected, and I might add on a dip later to the 10sma or something.

      That is different than how I trade a very convincing ICL. I Go heavier at the ICL like the one in Dec, and lighten up on the way to a daily cycle high ( Lats say day 20), then when it dips to the dcl, I add back in on that DCL and lighten up around day 13 – 18 -depending on how the trade is working out.

      ( For example) Look at a chart of MU.
      The entry was around $42 as it breaks out above the 10sma. It goes almost straight up to $50, drops down to the 10sma, and THAT DROP t is usually where I would add again ( I didnt this time, but I’m using this as an example to answer your question). The reversal at the 10sma is where I add and then I might see that as an a -b = c -d.

      I also would divide my $$$$ based on the set up. One might get 30%, another might only get 5% or 10%

      Hope that helps

  3. Hawaiifive0
    Hawaiifive0 says:

    Alex. I wan to buy TWTR as a buy and hold. When or how would you approach this? And what about that gap?

    • Bill
      Bill says:

      Its always tough to find a good buy in point. I’d like to buy more of these types of stocks also, but nobody wants to see their buy and hold go in the red right away. We’ll see what CF thinks

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Hi H50
      Do you see the GAP in November? That kind of power gap does not fill, because buyers are buying and holding now, and there are not enough sellers to drop it down. When I look at a stock for buy & hold and it gets as expended as TWTR ( Look at a 1 yr daily), you basically get your entries at the 50sma, and they may be rare.

      It may just rise up & go sideways in a consolidation to the 50sma over multi week time period, but basically , as you can see if you look at TWTR with a 50sma, it was in October, early December, and the sell off in Feb.

  4. BayTrader
    BayTrader says:

    My positions in BB and KEM when mentioned in comments yesterday both looking good, feeling more confident now that CF has added KEM to the report.
    Seems like all the big moves are happening from the closing Bell to PM…Soxl, Tqqq etc

  6. Cason
    Cason says:

    May take some of my SPY Calls off today, seems risky to head into the weekend fully loaded when sitting on big profits, but with new highs bodes well for next week, too!

    For TQQQ, I’m loosely trailing a 10% stop.

      • Cason
        Cason says:

        Options are like playing with hand grenades, but when you finally get it right, it’s a pretty satisfying BOOM! And I got SPY right.

      • Cason
        Cason says:

        I use options for 3 particular reasons: 1) I want high leverage on a directional move with limited capital expenditure, 2) I want a maximum defined risk , 3) hedge an open stock position either in a defined risk period or unknown / consolidation period.

  7. Cason
    Cason says:

    CF, thanks for the trading ideas. Just grabbed VUZI and DWT after taking profits from bio trades (NTLA, 1/2 LABU).

  8. Edward Bernhart
    Edward Bernhart says:

    XLE broke a trend line this morning let’s see how it closes. Also REXX had a positive earning s report.

  9. chartfreak1
    chartfreak1 says:

    Baytrader – I’m only telling this story because you recently told one similar.

    I can’t believe it , but it DOES happen if one is rushing about not paying attention.

    In my trading platform, my positions are listed alphabetically. I can move my cursor over the ticker and get a quick quote & Buy & Sell buttons appear. I wanted to add to AQ Again while it was down, so I quickly rolled over the ticker, saw BUY & SELL- placed an order for 1000 shares at the market. Without checking the price or estimated cost, I just accepted , and

    Accidentally Bought 1000 shares of AG. Listed alphabetically in my account, I clicked on the wrong ticker.

    I noticed immediately, because I went back to see my total shares of AQ and it hadn’t changed, so I immediately scrolled over AQ and added my 1000 shares while it was still down.

    So far my accidental 1000 shares of ‘AG’ are up, but I may sell them by the days end.

    • BayTrader
      BayTrader says:

      LOL welcome to my life!! 9/10 times, its becuz im an idiot. The other 1/10 is becuz I trade on the west coast in my home office in the early am hours and coffee hasnt kicked in and its dark… lol Sorry man…

      • chartfreak1
        chartfreak1 says:

        No, no , no – you’re just probably in a hurry, multi tasking when it happens.

        I usually ALWAYS double check before I click yes –
        I check the qty, the BUY or SELL, the total amount (That would have been a dead give-away) , but I just saw ‘Buy 1000 AG” and accepted. Then realized AG is not AQ -lol

        I’m blaming the coffee too 🙂 It was near the open and I was rushing trying to add on the dip

        • Tammie
          Tammie says:

          I sold one the other day by mistake….meant to sell a different one…afterwards I was like…WHAT just happened??!! I usually always double check the details….kicking myself…locked in a loss that wouldn’t have been if I’d done it right….

          • chartfreak1
            chartfreak1 says:

            I have done that in the past when I was with Scottrade.

            If you own ( Say for example) 1000 shares of XXXX, and you want to trade XXXX, you could just click on the ticker symbol in your positions.
            When you did that though, it automatically would load ‘SELL your 1000 XXXX’, and if you forgot to change the sell to buy and only changed the qty, it would sell what you put in for qty. Trying to double my position once, I sold the whole position by forgetting to change the automatic ‘sell’ to a ‘buy ‘ request – and didnt notice until it already ran higher. 🙁

        • Cason
          Cason says:

          You first put AQ in the report earlier this week and I thought it was AG you were talking about until I took a solid look and realized that wasn’t the same chart. 😛

    • Edward Bernhart
      Edward Bernhart says:

      Better than adding an extra Zero “0” like I have done. And by the way why aren’t you out chipping ice off your parent’s driveway like a dutiful son?? 🙂

      • chartfreak1
        chartfreak1 says:

        I have done that too, but 10,000 XXXX , but thankfully came back and said, ” Insufficient funds” – lol

        I cleaned up their driveway yesterday and it is in the 40’s today, so they are good to go 🙂

  10. BayTrader
    BayTrader says:

    Shortin MU all morning with a starter, 55.50 entry stop loss 55 PT 53 even on a day trade

  11. deshy
    deshy says:

    Alex, with general markets going up…thoughts about seeing $WTIC go sideways rather than down to finish off this DC?

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      I mentioned in the report today that Oil could back test the 50sma, and that it may not drop straight down.

      The markets do not have to go straight up either. They can back test break outs, go sideways, and will be due for a dcl in the future also.

      Go back to OIL in the report…I am playing probabilities that Oil has peaked on day 10, has dropped below the 50sma, and probably wont regain it. Eventually it will drop to a dcl, and so will the markets, I am not playing this day by day, I am basing this on a weaker L.T. daily cycle. NAZ & SOX are at new highs, OIL is under the 50sma.

      A move by oil above the 50sma could change my thinking , until then, it is what it is…a peak on day 10.

      Those are some of my ‘thoughts’

  13. Curtis
    Curtis says:

    Hi Alex,

    Would appreciate your thoughts on Steel stocks. I’m in AKS. Are you still holding CLF? thx

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Curtis – sorry, you have one of those grey names with Disqus and this comment doesn’t auto load, it only shows up when the page has been refreshed.

      I do not own CLF, I sold it simply because I was going to be away from my screen helping my parents for most of the day yesterday and the tarrif talk was pushing these around . It is slightly below the 50sma, but it looks like it could recover & do a shake out.

      I think that STLD, X, & NUE still look ok,
      I think that CLF looks “o.k.”, but is below the 50sma- it may be a short term shake out

      AKS is one of the weaker ones, I’m sure you have a stop close by.

      I still own NSU ( a ‘metals’ stock, but I think that it is a mainly copper & Zinc )

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      It would seem so, especially with NASDAQ & SOX, but because NYA is struggling a bit more than SPX & DJIA, it is possible that at a dcl, NYA could test the lows.
      I believe that E.W. sees 90% retrace of the first move at times too

      • chartfreak1
        chartfreak1 says:

        I should add to this that if you think about the possibilities…

        SOX or NASDAQ ICL in February means that if this is to be a bullish right translated Intermediate Cycle- we have Months of upside ahead. NOT straight up, but probably a break out, a back test on DCLs, and then higher.

        I was going to mention this in the weekend report

  15. Edward Bernhart
    Edward Bernhart says:

    Tammie, THCBF, which you mentioned yesterday as a late rally has just continued. Thanks!

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      Yeah, heading back to the lows so far.

      reported a death at one of their mines, and then Earnings & a dividend declared started the mid-Feb Selling.

  18. JT
    JT says:

    Seeing markets in recovery mode, I snuck some into SBRCY. Sberbank of Russia. The Central Bank of Russia owns a whopping 50% of it. Moves like a triple leveraged fund.

    It seems to finds support at the 34ma so that’s where my stop is.

    TQQQ and SOXL are just flying too high for me, I need something with a closer stop.

      • Kathleen Chow
        Kathleen Chow says:

        ICHR responding to semis moving:) I’m really liking the fact that we are looking at other sectors now other than miners. I’ve held AQ, CASA calmly since they IPOed and it has been a really easy ride; RUT helping here of course.

        SAIL, FSCT worth watching for pullback entry IMO.

        CF, can you take a look at CBAY chart? Thank you:)

        • chartfreak1
          chartfreak1 says:

          Hey Kathleen, Thats good, I actually didnt like the ICHR chart at all over a week ago, it is improving and may be a good candidate.

          I understand buying low and holding with gains , but CASA went from $22 to $16 in 1 week of Feb. I know a lot of traders here that might not take that so calmly 🙂

          I agree- SAIL on a pull back could be really nice,

          I personally dont like FSCT volume or BID /ASK Spreads. It looks pretty difficult to get out of. I have seen the Bid / ASK spread on this at 20 cents or more. It is currently at 15 cents when I just checked it.
          I would really be careful with some like that, until they get more volume. I have owned some like that in the past & its fine riding it higher, but when it sells down with under 100,000 volume- you can get trapped and fin the Bid 30 cents below your current price, just to get out.

          Look at CBAY using only a 20sma – it has a very nice run, and on the 20sma, is a buy right now that way with a stop ( The biggest risk is probably just the sector).

      • BayTrader
        BayTrader says:

        Im sad …. This is what happens when u day trade TQQQ… 10 pts was great, but left 10 more on the table. Luckily still holding my TNA 73.80s but even then.. Im really sad I didnt hold TQQQ or jump into soxl.. New ATHs?
        geeze.

  25. Kathleen Chow
    Kathleen Chow says:

    CF, re: “MU – you could add on a dip to test the break out or the gap fill” are you looking at MU to test the gap all the way down to 49.89 and/or the gap fill at 52?

    On a related note, I see that the break out point of 46.8-.98 area was re-tested on March 1…

    Thanks for clarifying:)

    • chartfreak1
      chartfreak1 says:

      I’m not exactly sure where it would drop to, but the 50sma is well below price and they often start to drift back toward it.

      The 10sma is near the GAP around $52, and the break out might be $50 ish, so it might just drop there & bounce around finding support as the 50sma rises, but honestly? I Dont know for sure.
      It does look like a bearish engulfing pattern if it closes down

      • Kathleen Chow
        Kathleen Chow says:

        The latter possibility is more palatable than the former lol! There’s been huge volume last few weeks; that’s not Granny and Grandpa buying lol! I think there’s institutional support but the stk does need a rest after such a run.

      • deshy
        deshy says:

        i’m far from smart money but put in an order at 8.83 with 5min left then pressed ‘cancel’ instead of update order. went to re-order and noticed the price shift. thank goodness I’m a slow typer! It usually works the other way for me. #fatfingerslucky

        • chartfreak1
          chartfreak1 says:

          🙂

          I still like it, just didnt give me the break out that I was hoping for.

          Still like VUZI on the 50sma, and SIFY is pushing against the 50sma.

          • deshy
            deshy says:

            I hear you…just my normal luck would have been to get in at 8.83 and stopped out at 8.5 or so and then have it close at 8.70…can’t believe I actually missed that trade…sounds like my special.

      • Cason
        Cason says:

        Yeah, but that let me get a position. Thanks! 🙂

        Btw, I was working in Arizona all week – that’s why I had all the comments and NOT in the middle of the night!

  27. Edward Bernhart
    Edward Bernhart says:

    TGB (over the 10 SMA) and other copper stocks have had a good day, but not much volume..

  28. Cason
    Cason says:

    Finding a lot of success right now just buy n’ hold trading TQQQ and general markets since ICL. Used to go in just too heavy with commodities, miners, MJ, etc. and these can be tough if you aren’t watching 24×7. I might make some serious updates to my trading philosophy here. For the past few years I was chase BMRs in commodities when a tech and S&P raging bull was right in my face (I DID trade biotech:) I think I need to just follow the trend and limit heavy exposure to miners and friends at convincing ICLs. Don’t need to always be in. Sure, I’m not seeing huge days up $K’s. BUT huge drawdowns followed if you didn’t exit perfectly. Lower day $$ gain but it’s been slow and steady without as much give back (And less stress).

    Anyway, just some musings. Either way, my day still starts with a daily dose of “The ‘Freak” either way!!

    • Peter
      Peter says:

      I’m with you at the moment. I’ve done consistently well with LABU, TQQQ, TNA, UDOW, SOXL. I just need help on DCH selling/ DCL buying during this IC.

      • BayTrader
        BayTrader says:

        I agree with Case and You peter and Steve… I am a day trader at heart and cant shake it, made some massive gains and took some even nice losses being a day trader – plus taxes and commish adds up fast. I know CF always jokes with me that i dont hold long enuf- and hes right. I need to trust my gut more when entering these things… I am still holding my TNA which has been great from 72s. I really want to get back in into TQQQ but with ATHs… Im nervous as all hell to do anything.

    • littletimeleft
      littletimeleft says:

      Agreed, trading has been very difficult the last few years (energy and miners particularly), for me at least. in hindsight just buying the major ETFs, FANGs and HODLing was the ticket to success over the last couple of years. reminds me of the 90s, i was a neophyte trader then and used to have one person in particular say to me constantly…”why don’t you just buy cisco/msft/dell/emc and stop trying to trade?”. annoying but correct. the semis and QQQ look like they are about to move significantly higher…time to HODL.

    • Hawaiifive0
      Hawaiifive0 says:

      Hey Cason. That’s the way I’m leaning too. Made some great gains in December only to give them back and more in late January. So while not in yet, the new plan is to buy the next DCL in TQQQ and wait for the ICL in miners/ gold.

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