March 7th – After The Storms

The markets have been choppy lately, and early February was really a bit stormy,  but after the market storms clear away, opportunities often present themselves in the manner of trade set ups.  We have been taking advantage of many of those lately.

  I guess that we can’t really call yesterdays Gap down a storm of its own.  Yesterday I pointed out that this is where the markets were set to open ( Purple square). Would they continue to sell off, or would they be bought back up?

SPX –  You can see that the gap open did not sell off further, but steadily climbed  through out the day.  Adding in this area with a stop below March lows is reasonable.  The SPX looks to be crawling under the 50sma, and this is common,  but …

 

 

SOX –  What Gap down?  I have been pointing out the Semiconductors as a stronger sector, and it barely gapped down Wednesday really. The Sox closed at new highs and many semiconductor stocks have too.  This is why we are seeing success in the set ups of MU, CREE, CY, and others.  I will discuss these at the end of the report.

IWM – The RUT or IWM  hardly gapped down at the open too, and that is why some of the small cap stock set ups are also remaining bullish.  We will look at a few trades at the end of the report. This remains a buy.

TNA –  The RUT or IWM remained bullish, and TNA is a 3x Small Cap Bull leveraged play for that sector. This is a buy.

 

WTIC – Oils inventory report came out and nothing happened. I was looking to enter DWT, but Oil started slowly rising.   Suddenly Oil started to drop and sold off as seen here, now rejected at the 50sma.  Read the chart about downside potential.  When I saw that…

 

From the weekend report, this would move Oil to around $52- $54ish ( unless we just get a lot of sideways chop).

DWT – So when I saw that Oil started to sell down, I did enter DWT, and I am expecting a break out here.   This had a surge of volume and remains oversold. Oils cycles can be very long, I am HOPING that this gets to $20.  The choppiness in every sector has been difficult.

USD –  The USD did not change very much.

 

I mentioned in yesterdays report that I was asked  “why didn’t you send out an alert with Gold up $12?”.  I basically said,  ” A big 1 day Pop  alone doesn’t really change anything, this remains Choppy.”

GOLD  – And it promptly gave it back on Wednesday.  This sector is still choppy.

 

 MINERS WERE INTERESTING.   So far we have

1. The shake out lows in early Feb.

2. A blast higher and then a drop to a higher low.

3. This week saw a break out above the trend line and that has now done a gap fill and a back test.

 

GDX -Wednesdays gap fill.  NORMALLY, this is a buy with a tight stop. I own some Miners ( AG, HL, AKG at this point), and if this reverses higher, I MIGHT take a trade from here.  It is choppy, it has been a real pain in the neck if you dont just lock in gains on the first sign up success.

 

Edit: I have no power, cable, or Internet, I am trying to edit this on my cell phone . We got over a foot of snow and I don’t expect to have power soon. I will be away for the day helping my parents and if they have internet I will try to pop in later in the comments, but I have to release this report as is without being able to edit it much. I am using my phone to write this final part of the report, but it is tedious. .. especially when people keep calling me!!😁

 

I purposely stayed up later and tried to complete this report , so I will just release it as is . Enjoy the report, Thursday’s Trading, and we should get upside follow-through in semiconductors and the general markets. TNA does look like it is just starting to break higher, and even though it is a  3 x  ETF ,  I do not think it or TQQQ or SOXL, etc is that much of a high risk . If coil drops  DWT  should do well . I Use looser stops on 3xetfs..  I’m hoping that some of our trades below see some follow through too.

 

~ALEX

 

CREE – STARE AT THIS CHART SET UP.  THIS was a strong buy posted by me.

DO you see how similar this set up is?

NUE – I posted this in the comments section as what I consider a ‘strong buy’.  It closed slightly above the red line.

This was CREE the following day.👍

STLD – NUE and STLD are steel stocks and they look quite bullish. This is a buy with a stop a little under the 50sma.  It may continue to go sideways, if you want to avoid being ‘stuck’ in a stock still consolidating,  Wait for a break of the 3 week downtrend.

 

SIFY  –  I have traded this on the sidefor tbe past year off & on , and I have honestly had trouble locking in good gains (as a trader).  Pop & Drop & Pop & Drop, it got choppy and tossed me aside a couple of times.  🙂    It IS in a bull run though, notice that it has tripled from September to January.

Now it seems to have consolidated those gains and looks like it may NOW be ready to go higher again.  It may break above the 50sma today.

 

SQ – This should prove to be a bullish break out from a multi-month consolidation, but it also seems to have put in a measured move.  It CAN extend from here & just keep running, or build a handle,  but the weekly chart is a longer term buy & hold.

 

TRXC –  I bought this in the $1.7o’s & posted it as a buy on the 50sma.  I then sold it  around $2 after posting this follow up chart in the report. Tuesday.

 

Earnings came out, it gapped down & reversed and I re-entered it after it reversed off of the 20sma, and I posted this in the comments.

TRXC –  It did drop a bit into the close, but it still looks like a bullish reversal holding the 50sma so far.  I will sell if it drops further, but I may add if it moves higher.  I like their story.

 TWTR – I was pushing this as a longer term BUY & HOLD last summer and last autumn.  This is an example of why.  It was a buy breaking out from this base at $17 & $18.  I said that we could see this at $100 in the future, similar to what FACEBOOK did.

 

TWTR – So far we have a double and it is at new highs with the markets acting all choppy and sideways.  I also have mentioned many times,  it is NOT as easy at it looks to buy & hold in a Bull Run.  Only in hindsight.  Read the chart.

 

I mentioned the above again because of MU, CREE, CY, AQ, SQ, etc etc .  They may be longer term BUY & HOLD too, now breaking out from a recent consolidation.

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NOTE:   Yes, I am still holding AQ and VUZI, but they  haven’t taken off higher like MU, CREE, CY.   Should I give up?    My theory on that is that the SOX or SEMIs are leading,  they are already pushing on new highs.  The SPX, IWM, DJIA, etc are just getting back above thier 50sma, but I do believe that they will break higher and play catch up.  If this is true,  These stocks should then follow as they break out of their consolidations. Let’s look at the set up.

 

AQ #1 – I was expecting a break & run now, and I bought this near the 4.  A run to ‘5’ is still expected, but…

 

AQ #2 – I cannot guarantee that we wont continue to chop sideways. I do think that with the RUT breaking higher, and SPX about to break above the 50sma, the market can pull these higher then too.

 

VUZI –  This was my chart for VUZI March 5th, a buy above the 50sma.

VUZI – This is still above the 50sma, and it may still run with the general markets. I am hoping that we dont get a ‘shake out’.

 

CY –  Recommended CY and it is another SEMI breaking to new highs, while the General Markets chop around.  The semis, Tech, and Small Caps  have been a great place to be since Feb lows.

 

JBL  – I haven’t traded Jabil in a long time, but I found an old list that had with tech stocks like  NTAP, CIEN, JDSU, SUNW, JBL, etc as old favorites  (  JDSU & SUNW are gone now).  JBL looks set up to run also, and the gains out of the lows recently were good ( 20%)

 

MYMMF –  I posted this in the comments too, as a reminder that these move in a big way.  Great on the way up, but the dips get big too. Notice that the 4 day run last week  was 80% gains!  So the pull back now is normal so far.  These stocks are not for everyone,  they are like 3xetfs.